Reelin’ In the Years

Following yesterday’s blog it was helpful to see the HESA summary data for 2021/22 enrollments appearing.  While this does not give a detailed analysis of recruitment by source country for each institution it provides the data to demonstrate that a number of non-Russell Group universities have been outperforming their, supposedly, illustrious competitors in international student recruitment for the past two years of published figures.  The outperformance is on both a percentage growth and an absolute volume growth.

It seems a reasonable bet that this growth will have been driven by students from India and other countries where the importance of post-study work and lower costs of studying are major attractions.  Lean and well managed universities that are used to scrapping for every student and every penny but do not carry expensive infrastructure costs, top ranked (and paid) professors, or any illusions about rankings being a measure of attractiveness are probably doing very well.        

What’s Another Year1

HESA data shows that the year 2021/22 saw the universities of Greenwich, Teeside and Hertfordshire top this list of 19 institutions for percentage growth in international enrollments year on year.  The universities of Liverpool and Newcastle saw a decline in their enrollments.  Given the success of Northumbria University (situated less than a mile from Newcastle University) and Teesside University it seems misguided to suggest, as the Times Higher Education has, that geography is a significant factor in this recruitment performance.

Note:  Source HESA (non-Russell Group shown in red)

Golden Years2

Looking over a longer time span it can be seen that the difference in performance is even more stark.  Over a two year period the universities of Ulster, Teesside, Greenwich and Hertfordshire have more than doubled their enrollment of international students.  The Russell Group’s University of Southampton performance over this two year period less exciting than its year on year 2020/21 to 2021/22 growth but when HESA data at institution level becomes available it will be interesting to see whether their country recruitment strategy changed. 

Note:  Source HESA (non-Russell Group shown in red)

Percentages can, of course, be misleading and what matters most to tuition fee income is the absolute number of students paying fees – bums on seats in common parlance.  Several Russell Group universities started with significant international enrollments so might be expected to have increased their number of students more rapidly even if the percentage is lower.  However, even by this measure several non-Russell Group universities are outperforming the Russell Group institutions over the past two years.

Note:  Source HESA (non-Russell Group shown in red)

Tomorrow Never Knows3

It is commonly accepted that the often-quoted experiment, where a frog is placed in a pan of water that is slowly heated and is so insensitive to small changes in the external environment that it fails to escape before being boiled, is apocryphal.  The response of some universities to the changing environment suggests that the experiment might be taking place in real time with international student recruitment replacing the water.  Both the University of Liverpool and Newcastle University have done poorly over the past two years but both seem to be ignoring the underlying problem.

In its 2020/21 Financial Statements, the University of Liverpool accounts for its decline in international student fee tuition income by saying that, “overseas student recruitment continues to be affected by the pandemic, and although the impact is reduced in 2021/22, we have not yet seen a return in overseas demand to pre-pandemic levels.”  In and of itself the statement is true for Liverpool but clearly not so for many other universities.  Later in the Statements it is noted that, “there is a particular exposure to international relations with China due to our Joint Venture, XJTLU” which raises obvious questions about a recruitment strategy that has not embraced the growth in students from other markets.

Newcastle University’s Integrated Annual Report makes the point that “..we are heavily dependent on international students to keep the business running” but seems to be living in an alternative reality when it claims “..we have had a successful year with regard to international student recruitment.”  The University trumpets its league tables success for the year but fails to recognize that this is not what is driving the needs and expectations of students in the most rapidly growing markets.  The tired excuse that “ongoing uncertainty caused by the pandemic saw a lower than expected international undergraduate intake” suggests the university is the victim of an uncontrollable situation at a point when Northumbria University, just a stone’s throw away, has added nearly 3,000 international students in just two years.

On the same note, the University of Southampton’s Financial Statements suggest that “strong league table performance is a good indicator of future student recruitment, especially internationally,”. This is unsurprising for an institution that has formed its strategy around moving forward in the league tables but the facts showing desultory performance from well ranked institutions in the Russell Group club don’t exactly support the assertion. Recent research suggests that 72% of GenZ students think the rankings less important than finding a university that gives them the right skills for their future.

It is always good advice to separate cause from correlation and to not be the apocryphal frog. A new twist on an old phrase might be that it is time these universities smelt the coffee and woke up.  There is a new international recruitment dynamic and they need to pay attention. 

Notes:

The headline is from the Steely Dan classic, Reelin’ In The Years, released in 1972, although my argument is that some Russell Group universities are reeling in terms of response to market changes than fishing effectively. For those interested in such things, the Wikipedia article on the band appears to avoid exploring the origin of the band’s name.

  1. What’s Another Year is the Irish Eurovision song contest winner from 1980 when it was sung by Johnny Logan. Johnny Logan is the only performer to have won the Eurovision Song Contest twice, in 1980 and 1987. He also composed the winning song, Why Me?, in 1992.
  2. Golden Years is from David Bowie’s Station to Station album released in 1975.
  3. Tomorrow Never Knows is from The Beatles’ Revolver album released in 1966. The song title apparently inspired the title of the 1997 James Bond film Tomorrow Never Dies (which itself is supposed to be typo from the original idea “tomorrow never lies”. 

2 thoughts on “Reelin’ In the Years

  1. This is very interesting and reminds me of another old adage (can’t think of a song that resonates): marketing is about making what you sell rather than selling what you make.

    1. Maybe Man In The Mirror might be a good one for universities to listen to. Trouble is that they think the market is singing Just The Way You Are. Totally agree with your point. Market responsiveness and orientation is the key for almost all organisations in a competitive, global market.

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