There’s plenty of jubilation over the re-introduction of two-year Post-Study Work visas and congratulations are due to those who lobbied for it. But it’s worth remembering that Government’s rarely give something without wanting something in return and that every gift horse should be given careful scrutiny. In that context there are a few things to look out for over the coming weeks, months and years.
Drift, Detail and Design
A ‘popular’ announcement from a Government under pressure is often rushed out with detail and other policy intent still needing to be tidied up. The Home Secretary’s announcement that the new Graduate Route ‘will mean talented international students, whether in science and maths or technology and engineering, can study in the UK…’ was curious in the context of a scheme allowing all graduates to stay. It’s mirrored on the Home Office website and may provide cover for a later tightening of the rules to specific subjects.
A Step Forward But…
Some details of PSW are still to be announced but it seems slightly short of the Australian (two to four years) and Canadian (up to three years) schemes. It is not yet clear if families can join the PSW graduate as in Australia and it seems doubtful that there will be any room for promoting it as a route to permanent residence as Canadian institutions do. And there is always the potential for both those countries to step up their offer to become even more competitive.
Economic Conditions Can Change Policy
PSW was last introduced in the UK in 2002 when unemployment was 5%. It’s discontinuation in 2012 followed a rapid rise in unemployment to 8% between 2009 and 2011. Prime Minister David Cameron told the House of Commons, ‘Frankly, there are lots of people in our country desperate for jobs. We don’t need the brightest and best of students to come here and then do menial jobs.’
The economic direction of travel for the UK post-Brexit is uncertain but universities have been drawn very directly into discussions about employability and the value of a degree. It’s easy to allow PSW in an era of historically low unemployment, currently around 4%, but if recession hits and unemployment climbs it is equally simple to remove it. Trends in numbers and careers of home graduates may factor in that equation.
Table 1 – UK Unemployment 2000-2013
Grounds for Home Student Fee Reduction
The HE sector made an enormous song and dance about the contribution of international student fees but may find being granted it has unintended consequences. With increasing international students providing a major economic stimulus to universities there is fertile ground for populist and electioneering proposals to cut fees for home students and increase investment in school and FE. It’s probably helpful that international students also prop up the economics of many STEM courses and postgraduate study.
Limiting HE Investment to Support Other Priorities
Universities may hope the Augar Review has been buried but newspaper headlines about ‘low value’ courses, universities manipulating applications, grade inflation and VC pay are unlikely to have been totally forgotten. More importantly, more money from international students gives grounds to support more popular or political priorities. It was interesting to see Chancellor Sajid ‘I went to my local FE College’ Javid, Spending Round announcement include an increase for further education funding in the 2019 spending round and increasing ‘school spending by £7.1 billion by 2022-23, compared to this year.’
International Fees For EU Students
One of the arguments against introducing international fees for EU students post-Brexit has been that it will cause a significant decline in their numbers. A surge in traditional international fee-paying students attracted by PSW makes up those numbers and would allow EU students to work as PSW international students without a more complex arrangement with Europe. Making EU students ineligible for UK student loans would also eliminate headlines like ‘Thousands of EU students fail to repay loans.’
Never Mind the Quality Feel the Width
It is arguable that strong brands perceived as high quality or with potent strategies for recruitment have not been particularly troubled by the lack of post study work visas. Eight Russell Group universities each increased their first-year international student intakes by over 27% over the two years from 2015/16 to 2017/18. Even beyond that Group there are clear winners who achieved significant growth including De Montfort (+78%) and the University of East London (+90.6%).
For some universities these were grim years with five institutions each seeing their intake decline by over 300 students. PSW is likely to see such institutions making up for lost time and revenue by driving international numbers up but the quality of the intake may suffer. PSW as the driver for attracting less able international students to cash-strapped universities is not a particularly lofty ideal.
Competition for Places and Jobs
The potential for significant upturns in volumes of international students comes just as the upswing occurs in home student demographics with HEPI suggesting the need for up to 300,000 additional university places by 2030. This sets the scene for potential conflict between home students and international students – particularly if home fees go down and institutions are looking towards the economics. The OECD’s Education at A Glance 2019 noted, ‘there is a risk of squeezing out qualified national students from domestic tertiary educational institutions that differentiate tuition fees by student origin, as they may tend to give preference to international students who generate higher revenues through higher tuition fees”.
It’s suggested that in 2019 around 1,000 places were reserved for international students in Clearing and the economics may push institutions to favouring international students over home students just as home demand steps up. It is only a short step to stories about debt-laden home graduates being unemployed because universities are enticing increasing amounts of international competition for early career jobs. At that point the freedom of PSW may find itself subject to increasing scrutiny and Government intervention.
Conclusion
A benevolent PSW policy is to be welcomed where it builds on the reputation of the sector for quality and is part of a strategic approach to supporting higher education’s potential as a major contributor to global influence as well as the UK’s economic and cultural development. It is also possible that the recent announcement was carefully planned and is the start of a period of unprecedented benevolence towards higher education in the UK. But history and context suggest that things are rarely so simple.
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay