Tag: pathways

Northern Star Sheds Light on International Recruitment

Universities and their mouthpieces might be drawing a collective sigh of relief and thinking that some of the heat has gone out of the discussion around the inequity of International Year One (IYO).  We certainly haven’t seen any of the private providers, the main beneficiaries of this route, stepping forward with authoritative data about this route.  But the Northern Consortium1 UK (NCUK) do give us traces of performance over the past decade or so.

Nothing in the NCUK numbers gives any relief to the core point that IYO is a route which, in many cases, allows international students to start the first year of a degree on without the necessary grades for direct entry.  The scale of the NCUK operation is used to demonstrate that IYO is not a niche activity and so deserves full attention from the Quality Assurance Agency and Department of Education reviews.

Of fundamental interest is the suggestion that NCUK has a long-term annual Progression Analysis that “considers the performance of all NCUK students at member universities and associates”.  This could be the gold standard of analysis reflecting everything from enrolment through attrition to degree outcomes.  At a single stroke NCUK might be able to answer many questions about the efficacy of pathway programmes albeit that its courses are not on campus.

In that respect there appears to have been an NCUK Report “Evidencing Success” from May 2018 launched at the NAFSA:Association of International Educators Conference in Philadelphia, which tracked ten years of NCUK student performance.  The snippet from it in the 2017/18 Annual Report indicates that 80% of NCUK students receive a first- or second-class degree but that IYO students “have a higher-than-average pass rate when progressing to the second year of their degree at university”.  It goes on to say that “over 90% of students meeting or getting higher than the required grades go on to pass their first year” and for “students who have been offered places with lower than the advertised entry requirements, the pass rate remains high at 88%.”

It seems reasonable to suggest that domestic students who miss their offer grade by one level and are rejected might do even better if allowed to start a degree, with extra academic support, on campus alongside direct entrants.  They just don’t get the chance.  Even more regrettable is that the Report is no longer available on its website – makes one wonder2.

The Trail Begins

The NCUK annual report and accounts for 2015/16 show that “International Diploma (Int Diploma-equivalent to 1st year degree level)” was offered as an “established pathway” programme.  It was “renamed as the International Year One” that year.  The report noted an upcoming triennial review in 2016/17 which might imply it had been first introduced in 2013/14 after the closure of post-study work options for international students in 2012.

As a small aside and for those that believe in history being cyclical it is worth noting that the Annual Report also notes NCUK had unconditional offers for 1,205 students.  It was an increase from 1,119 the previous year.  There was, however, a note of caution on eventual enrolment because of “…Nigeria where the economic circumstances are posing challenges for students and their families.  

Getting To Scale

The chart below reflects the data made available in NCUK Annual Reports and Reviews from 2016/17.  Not all of the information is provided for each year but we are able to see the following:

  • Students placed at UK university partners (all years)
  • Students “continuing onto the NCUK International Year One or moving to degree completion programmes at The Sino-British College in Shanghai” (2016/17 to 2018/19)
  • Students admitted to non-partner UK universities or to universities outside the UK (2016/17 to 2018/19)
  • The total number of students progressing to university or continuing on an NCUK qualification (all years)
  • The overall number of students on NCUK courses (2020/21 and 2021/22)

The final number is important in considering the IYO volume because NCUK also offer a percentage breakdown of the numbers on each of International Foundation Year, International Year One (IYO) and Masters Preparation.  For 2020/21 and 2021/22, where those overall enrolments are available, the percentage doing IYO was shown as 16% and 12% respectively.  The maths suggests that 507 and 452 were doing IYO courses in those two years.

Source: NCUK Annual Reports and Reviews

How Big Is International Year One for Private Providers?

A glimpse into the scale of IYO also comes from the only NCUK provider delivering it in the UK – INTO Manchester.  We can know for sure from a Quality Assurance Agency report in 2014 that in that year, of the 822 students, there were 99 on the NCUK “International Diploma” (later renamed International Year One) course.  That’s 12% which seems in keeping, if a little low, with the broader percentages shown by NCUK in later years. 

It is reasonable to add that in the May 2019 QAA Report 77% of students (82 out of 106) at INTO Manchester were reported as being “on a Level 4 International Year One (IYO) course” which might suggest a signficant upward movement in the course.  As pathway providers have come under increasing pressure to perform they have accelerated their provision of the most attractive offers to international students.  Universities who are equally keen to increase international numbers have become complicit in allowing those courses and the progression degrees available.

The other point is that INTO Manchester is not on a university campus so it is reasonable to suggest that the IYO here is more akin to the potential for domestic students who fail to get their grade offers to university to go and do an HNC at a local college.  All that really means is that the attraction of a course on a university campus, often sitting with direct entry first year students and taught by the same lecturers is likely to be immensely more attractive.  It seems reasonable to suggest that the likely IYO percentage in on-campus pathways is much higher.

As noted in a previous blog the growth of IYO and the propensity of universities to allow them has grown rapidly over the years.  More than half the partners of the six main pathway operators have IYO options leading to over 1,000 degree options.  Each partner usually has two to five IYO options.

 UK University PartnersUniversities offering IYOIYO linked degrees
Navitas127430
INTO74102
CEG8581
Kaplan157219
Study Group1411219
Oxford International5*451
Total61381,102

*Only partners where an International Foundation or International Year Zero is offered

A 2023 British Council report into “Pathways and recruitment channels to undergraduate study in the UK” reflected the paucity of information on the number of students coming through pathways into universities3.  However, my own research from public sources indicated that there were likely to be at least 20,000 students in pathways in 2018 and there have been additional partnerships announced since then.  Even staying with 20,000, a count of 12% of them being on international year one reaches 2,400 international students on campuses sitting the first year of an undergraduate degree in a way that is not available to domestic students.

As previously established these students have been accepted on significantly lower grades and often at lower language capability than even direct entrants from their own country.  A domestic student who missed a university offer by one grade could be rejected by that institution and IYO is even offered below contextual grades of domestic students from educationally challenged backgrounds.  It is very difficult to see how that is equitable.

How Do International Year One Student Perform?

The NCUK data is interesting but the gaps in it suggest a number of avenues for further consideration.  Of particular interest is the relative performance of IYO students compared to students progressing from Foundation Courses.  In this respect it’s worth noting that most pathway statistics about degree success tend only to reflect those that made it to the exam so dropout rates are hard to come by.    

A blog in The PIE in May 2018, by Georgina Jones, NCUK Market Development Director, indicates that 80% of NCUK students graduated with a first or second class degree but “around 50%” getting a 2:1 or higher.  On lower admissions criteria she notes, “…students who are admitted with below the published admission criteria, 88% go on to pass their first year, compared to 92% and 95% for those who met or exceed the criteria.”

In the 2018/19 Annual Report NCUK state that 59% of International Foundation Year students graduated with a 1st or 2:1 but that International Year One saw 74% of students achieving a 1st or 2:1.  89% of the International Foundation students secured a 2:2 or better compared to 96% of International Year One students.  There is a hiatus, presumably COVID-related before the story picks up again in the 2021/2 Annual Review, which indicates the 2:1 and above success rates were 69% (International Foundation Year) and 91% (International Year One).

It seems to tell a story that International Year One candidates may be more likely to drop out or fail in the first year but then go on to secure better success rates on completing the degree.  The comparative completion rate for domestic students is around 2.7% which might suggest that if those narrowly missing direct entry were allowed to start year one with additional academic support, more  would go on to finish and achieve academically than international students.

Summary

It is regrettable that Universities UK seems to have wilfully chosen not to explicity include International Year One in the review it has requested from the Quality Assurance Agency.  The existence of Foundation Years, which are often available to domestic students on a comparable basis, has not been questioned by most informed observers of the sector.  Notwithstanding that point, the NCUK figures bring into question the quality of study outcomes for international students who complete Foundations. The 59% with a 1st or 2:1 quoted by NCUK for 2018/19 is a very long way behind the aggregated 76.4% with a 2:1 or first shown by HESA for that year.

The fact remains that IYO is likely to be a successful proposition for commercial providers intent on boosting profitability and universities looking to protect falling international applications.  Equally true is that there is no comparable on-campus, year one of an undergraduate degree option for domestic students who miss their grades so the underlying allegation of privilege for international students is difficult to resist.  It seems that the only motivation for universities is likely to be having higher fee paying international students sitting in seats that could be filled by better qualified domestic students.

NOTES

  1. The Northern Consortium was incorporated as a company limited by guarantee (company registration number 02788226) on 9 February 1993. The Company was registered with the Charity Commission (registration number 1018979) on 23 March 1993. It had ten founder universities and describes itself as “a consortium of leading universities dedicated to giving international students guaranteed* entry to universities worldwide” The star alongside the word “guaranteed” is on the website and probably tells us all we need to know about the types of messaging that prevails.
  2. The summary of NCUK data reflects the incomplete picture across several annual reports. The Evidencing Success Report is still flagged on the website but the link leads to a 404 error page. It would be helpful if the data was available and particularly so if a comprehensive successor document could bring the material up to date.
  3. The British Council report is as polite as it can be about the fact that there are thousands of international students joining UK universities without any consistent way of determining their route to enrolment. This has been a feature of the growth of commercial providers in the international recruitment space. It is also another gap in data which makes the sector vulnerable to politically driven focus on student visas.

Image by Mario Aranda from Pixabay

Selling England by the Pound

The Sunday Times article about differential entry grades for international students1 to Russell Group university degrees sparked the usual defensive response from the UK higher education sector.  There was plenty of obfuscation and claims that the newspaper was guilty of poor journalism but with little engagement about the core claims.  There does, however, seem to be some substance to the claim that universities are working with commercial partners in ways that are not entirely transparent and do not seem equitable in terms of academic and language standards.

Specifically, International Year One (IYO) offerings (generally through private partnerships with universities, accept international students who fail to get the academic or language requirements for direct entry to a university undergraduate programme. If they pass the IYO course they progress to the second year of the degree programme in the university proper which means the IYO is accepted as the first year of the degree. The IYO courses are not open to UK students so they do not have this opportunity if their grades are below the direct entry requirement and so they are disadvantaged.

A Trick of the Tail

The issue, is not well defined by the newspaper, but it seems clear that international students can buy their way directly onto year one of UK university degree course via an International Year One programme operated by a private partner.  The students can do this when they are not academically qualified to enter that programme directly and this opportunity is denied to UK students.  Finding evidence for this is not easy because many International Year One’s advertised are Delphic, coy or deliberately elusive about stating the requirements.

What is consistent is that pathway operators are clear about the intention of International Year One courses:

Kaplan say:

“If you don’t meet the entry requirements to go to a UK university directly, degree preparation courses like an IYO can help you reach the level needed to start a bachelor’s degree….After successfully completing an IYO, you progress straight to the second year of a bachelor’s degree, so you save time and money.”

Study Group International Study Centre – Cardiff University says:

“The International Year One is an intensive programme that leads to year two of an undergraduate degree at Cardiff University. The programme is tailor-made for international students who are not ready to apply direct to the University, but don’t want to delay their studies.”

INTO University of Exeter

“Specifically designed for international students who show academic promise but who do not meet the University’s academic and/or English language requirements for direct entry to Year 1 of an undergraduate degree.”

There seems no doubt from the pathways providers that IYO is a substitute for year one of a three-year undergraduate degree and that those enrolled do not have to have the qualifications published by the university for direct entry to that degree.  It is also true to say that this privilege is not available to UK students.  Indeed, international students who are academically strong enough and have achieved the English language levels to enter direct need not have bothered because their achievements save them neither time or money.

The Sunday Times has representatives of several pathway operators rather proudly noting that it is a “back door”, that “you don’t have to worry too much about how difficult it is” and “..British students don’t have this kind of privilege.”  One might argue that this is just sales talk but if so, it is a reminder that some commercial operators are not operating to the best standards in preserving the UK sector’s much vaunted reputation for integrity and quality.  The operators’ representatives quoted are effectively trashing the brand of the university in question by indicating that this is a privileged, easy and hidden route to their awards. 

Invisible Touch

Having established that the Sunday Times is correct about the nature of the International Year One it’s worth a look at the extent of the differential.  As noted above the university and pathway websites are less than forthcoming, perhaps because they realise that it doesn’t reflect well on quality standards for admissions.  The Sunday Times quotes its sources for a chart showing various anomalies between direct entry and International Year One requirements but they are not publicly accessible.

The Sunday Times also directly quotes pathway representative sfor INTO Exeter saying, “So your son that’s studying A-levels — to get on to the [International Year One] programme it would be two Cs and a D.” They note, “Applying through the Ucas system, the students would need AAB at A-level, she said.”

One publicly available source confirms a similar differential at another INTO partner, Queen’s University Belfast.  The university website indicates that the BSc Economics degree requires ABB at A-level:

Source: Queen’s University Belfast website (28 January, 2024)

The INTO Student Portal shows the progression possibility to the Business Economics BSc from the International Year One in Management and Finance and that the entry requirement for the International Year One in question is DD at A-level:

Source: INTO Student Portal website (28 January, 2024)

Against this background it seems incomprehensible that the Russell Group of Universities has issued a statement trying to obscure and obfuscate the situation. Queen’s offers, through its private partner INTO, an International Year One that allows “progress to Year 2 of a professionally accredited undergraduate degree at Queen’s University Belfast.” It is not available to UK students.

From Genesis to Revelation

The Sunday Times was unwise to bring the terms Foundation Programme and International Year One to the table in the same article.  It seems perfectly reasonable that there should be Foundation level, pre-degree, preparatory programmes for students who do not have the required language level or academic qualifications for direct entry and/or may not have the 13 years’ schooling expected.  There may be different things to be worried about in terms of Foundation programmes and particularly the covert nature of the agreements between university and private partner on the language and academic grades required to pass before degree entry. 

Pathway operators mentioned in the article, INTO University Partnerships, Kaplan, Study Group and Cambridge Education Group (shown as OnCampus), all cut their teeth on Foundation Programmes.  These have come under increasing pressure over time for competitive reasons and as the Chinese students who underpinned the growth of the early 2000s have declined.  The International Year One response utilizes the gap between 5.5IELTS and 6.0IELTS with the former being the lowest level allowed for a visa to start a degree in the UK and the latter being the lowest most universities will accept for direct entry.

Language testing is complex and the gap between 5.0IELTS and 6.0IELTS is suggested to be that between a “modest user” and a “competent user”.  One suspects that the UK visa regulations relating to degree study were simply chosen to reflect the Common European Framework of Reference of Languages (CEFR) which bands IELTS 5.5 to 6.5 together in the B2 category).  In practical terms, however, most universities settled on 6.0IELTS for entry because it was a level which reflected teaching and learning priorities.

Calling All Stations

It is, of course, not only Russell Group universities that do this with International Year One and given the maelstrom in which INTO, Study Group, Kaplan, and CEG found themselves thrown it seemed only fair to have a quick look at Navitas.  Of the big five the Australian giant does not work with any Russell Group universities but has built a decent UK portfolio since 2000, having been the first movers on pathway courses in Australia in the 1990s.

At Anglia Ruskin University, Navitas offer what they call a First Year Pathway (FYP) and say “Upon completion of the first year…you will seamlessly progress to the second year of your chosen degree with the University”.  The language and description is a little meandering but we can be sure agents know what they mean and what commission comes with it.  They are specific that “First Year with ARU College is only available for EU and International Students” and that it is for those who “don’t meet the entry requirements to enter university level study directly.”

Finding the entry criteria for the First Year Pathway is complex (so I would be happy to hear from ARU if I have this wrong and will correct it) but it looks as if the answer is “(EU & International nationals ONLY): 40. UCAS Tariff points at A/AS level.”  This compares to ARU’s standard entry requirement of “96 UCAS tariff point from a minimum of 2 A levels (or equivalent)”.  Basically this is the difference between AA at A-level and DE at A-level.

The Lamb Lies Down on Broadway

There are times when the UK higher education sector seems as aimless and innocent as a lamb deciding to take a nap on a busy thoroughfare.  There are just too many occasions when it expects to be protected from harm while placing itself in perilous situations where it might be flattened by an oncoming juggernaut.  It has allowed itself to be positioned as venal, arrogant and detached which makes it vulnerable to almost any action the Government of the day wants to take.

The Sunday Times piece comes on top of a number of reports and news items that just suggest universities are not in full control of their brand, their degrees or their finances.  The recent National Audit Office report on private education providers franchised by universities had undertones of fraud and organised crime which were disturbing.  The sense that international recruitment was allowed to spiral out of control with millions being paid to agents and reliance on international students is also strong.

There seems little doubt that all of these factors will play into the Migration Advisory Committee thinking as it reviews the graduate and student visa routes.  Everyone has already seen the commentary from the chair of the Committee concerning low-quality students enrolling more for the option to work post-study than for the education.  One might even think that the timing and placement of the Sunday Times story was intended to ensure that the terms of that Review are as tough and directive as possible.

NOTES

The title of this blog and the sub-headings are all taken from albums by Genesis.  One take on the title “Selling England by the Pound” is that the band did not want to be thought of as “selling out” to America.  But bassist Mike Rutherford has also been reported as saying it “..was partly about increasing commercialization and the sense that something was being lost in England.”  It seems apt given the increasing incursion of private entities into UK higher education.

  1. The Sunday Times appears to have access not only to taped interviews but also to “grade entry requirement documents”.  This blog does not attempt to fully replicate the work or assertions of the newspaper article or to endorse all of its assertions, graphics or quotes. 
  2. I am grateful to Susan Fang for her insight on a specific issue related to this blog. Her insight and prompt response was extremely helpful. Any text or misunderstandings are entirely mine.

Image by Catherine Stockinger from Pixabay

You Must Remember This

One prediction for 2024 is that the ongoing legal dispute between INTO University Partnerships (INTO) and the University of South Florida (USF)1 is likely to provide hours of insight and legal argument.  It appears that the mediation of November 2023 was unsuccessful2 and there is plenty of continuing legal activity in the early part of 2024.  As ever, the summary below is taken from published documents and makes no observation on the arguments made by either side.

The Fundamental Things Apply

Things get moving early in the year with a JAWS hearing on a USF Motion for Summary Judgement on Thursday 4 January3.  INTO had been granted a continuance on a hearing of the Motion back in September 20234 but their next motion to delay the hearing further was denied on 4 December 20235.  The motion seeks a summary judgement against “(…the “INTO Entities”) on Count I, Breach of Contract, and Count VI, Breach of Duty of Good Faith and Fair Dealing, of the Second Amended Complaint (“SAC”)”.6

A range of legal arguments have been made on both sides and the tone is set early in the most recent submissions.  INTO’s filing suggests that the summary judgement should be denied because USF’s “..allegedly “unambiguous” interpretation of the contracts at issue is still unsupported by the contract language and violates the core tenets of contract law”.7  On the other hand USF’s response to that filing starts with the line, “The INTO Entities’ response ignores basic contract law.”8

In this context, it is interesting for a lay-person to read an article written for the Bar Association of San Francisco which starts, “If you wish to be taken seriously by the court, whether in oral or written argument, never malign or belittle your opponents or their position.”  As previous blogs have noted the various flourishes, acid comments and hyperbole in the written submissions for this case seem to ignore that advice with monotonous regularity.  

That No One Can Deny

Already up and running, with a lot more to come, is the taking of depositions under oath and on the record.  There must be a lot of management time, effort and probably stress (as well as lawyers fees) going into briefing and preparation for these.    

INTO’s lawyers are taking depositions from 14 USF related individuals9 with a start on December 12, 2023 and continuing from January 5 to January 25, 2024.  These include Glenn Besterfield, who was center director for INTO USF when it opened in 2009.  He later became dean for the Office of Admissions and associate vice president for student success at USF before moving on to become Dean of Enrolment Management at the University of North Florida in spring 2023.      

For USF the count runs to 12 INTO related individuals10 with ex-global COO Anmar Kawash and ex-CFO Jon Holmes among them.  The depositions start on January 4 and end with INTO founder Andrew Colin on Wednesday, March 13.

As Time Goes By

It is no surprise that this depth and breadth of activity led to a third extension of case management deadlines on 14 December11.  The Order indicates that discovery closes on March 29, 2024, with expert discovery closing on June 14, 2023 and the “Deadline to have dispositive and Daubert motions12 heard of [Friday], August 23, 2024.”  This seems set for the long haul.

In its Annual Report to July 2022, INTO noted as “contingent liabilities” that it had “provided for legal fees up to 31 July 2022 in relation to this ongoing litigation.  Further legal fees are expected to be incurred in FY23 in respect of this dispute and have been included in forecasts for this period.” It looks like FY24 will have more of the same.

For the University of South Florida their financial audit for the year to July 2022 said, “The University is involved in several pending and threatened legal actions. The range of potential loss from all such claims and actions, as estimated by the University’s legal counsel and management, should not materially affect the University’s financial position.”  To give this some context USF’s operating revenue for the year was $894m.

NOTES

The title and sub-headings of the blog are from “As Time Goes By” made famous by Dooley Wilson in the film Casablanca which was released in 1942. Dooley was a singer and drummer but not a pianist so the tinkling of the ivories was dubbed in. The song was written by Herman Hupfeld who was born nearly 130 years ago on 1 February 1894. Even as time goes by, class is permanent.

  1. The background to the court case between INTO University Partnerships and the University of South Florida has been outlined in several previous blogs. As before, the terms INTO and University of South Florida are used as short forms for the range of corporate plaintiffs and defendants. Full details and all public documents reference in this blog can be found through https://hover.hillsclerk.com/html/case/caseSearch.html the Hillsborough County Clerk of Courts search facility. Insert 22 for the year, CA-Circuit Civil for the Court type and 006001 for the case number.
  2. Filing # 188238925 E-Filed 12/18/2023 01:13:33 PM (point 4. of Exhibit 25 – Affidavit of Shawn J. Rabin)
  3. Filing # 187809851 E-Filed 12/11/2023 08:28:02 PM
  4. 09/14/2023 11:07:38 AM Electronically Filed: Hillsborough County/13th Judicial Circuit
  5. 12/04/2023 12:13:13 PM Electronically Filed: Hillsborough County/13th Judicial Circuit
  6. Filing # 179813559 E-Filed 08/16/2023 03:28:09 PM)
  7. Filing # 188161134 E-Filed 12/15/2023 06:08:23 PM
  8. Filing # 188693985 E-Filed 12/27/2023 11:55:52 AM  
  9. Filing # 186997655 E-Filed 11/29/2023 02:20:27 PM
  10. Filing # 186594368 E-Filed 11/21/2023 12:05:10 PM
  11. 12/14/2023 10:05:23 AM Electronically Filed: Hillsborough County/13th Judicial Circuit
  12. A Daubert motion is a specific type of motion in limine13.  It is raised before or during trial, to exclude the presentation of unqualified evidence to the jury.  Daubert motion is used to exclude the testimony of an expert witness does not possess the requisite level of expertise or used questionable methods to obtain data.  It is the outcome of 1993 Supreme Court case, Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharms., 509 U.S. 579 (U.S. 1993).
  13. Always interesting when a footnote needs a footnote but the term was new to me.  In limine is a Latin term meaning “on/at the threshold”.  In this context it relates to a pretrial motion requesting that certain evidence be found inadmissible.

Image by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay

Study Group Hokey Pokey

In recent months there has been triumphant messaging on LinkedIn from Shorelight’s Tom Dretler claiming that the business “brought more international students to the US” than anybody else in fall 2023.  It was queried by Andrew Colin of INTO University Partnerships with the riposte “Are you sure?” to which Tom posted a thumbs up sign.  Probably better than the middle finger emoji but as neither of them would be able to definitively prove the point we are probably none the wiser.

What is clear is that Shorelight, having overtaken INTO for pathway partnerships within three years of springing into existence, has also significantly outstripped the erstwhile US market leader in terms of direct recruitment options.  But as the US comes back to life after a tough and long pandemic it is interesting to watch the maneuvering of other players.  There is no doubt that there are probably hundreds of US universities who would like to get on the gravy train of southeast Asia enrollment opportunities so we should expect a glut of wannabe global student recruitment options emerging.

Enter Study Group, whose approach to the US has been akin to a slightly the worse for wear dad doing the Hokey Pokey1 on new year’s eve.  The gyrations of the past few years are a painful reminder that a business that could once claim to be among the world leaders as a private provider of recruitment services to universities seems to be struggling for identity, a sense of direction and worst of all hard cash.  Having abdicated to Navitas in Australia by selling all of its holdings and now facing a UK Tory Government lining up post-graduate work as the Christmas sacrifice to right-wing rebellion, it seems to have turned attention across the Atlantic.

The announcement of three new direct recruitment partners may look like a decisive step but you have to wonder whether this represents a strategic drive for market share or a gambler’s final throw.  A quick look at the recent international student enrollment record and a few facts about each university might suggest that we are at the stage of the evening where subdued lighting and sufficient refreshment has brought lonely souls together.  Maybe inspiration on the partnerships has been drawn from the mighty Bruce Springsteen’s suggestion that “Show a little faith, there’s magic in the night, You ain’t a beauty, but hey, you’re alright.”2

Shake It All About

Between 2019 and 2021 Study Group ended relationships with seven US universities and, as recently reported, has seen Baylor University depart the fold in 2023.  Some of the relationships had been in place as long ago as 2008 but there was a burst of activity with new partners in 2013 and 2014 after the purchase of Study Group from Champ Private Equity by Providence Equity Partners for a reported £388.3m in 2010.  Of the four partners added at that point only one remains.

By 2017 Study Group was on the block again.  It seem entirely possible that the addition of seven new partners between 2016 and 2018 was driven as much by the desire to show momentum as long-term strategic planning.  Four of the seven are no longer partners.  Current major backer Ardian bought the business in 2019 without the terms of trade being made public but at a point when the decline in US international pathway businesses was already evident.

Timing is everything and nobody could have predicted the pandemic to come, so Ardian have been obliged to put up with some even more difficult times.  Between February 2021 and March 2023 they tipped a further £77m into the business according to Study Group’s Annual Report and Financial Statements. Despite that in the year ended 2022 Study Group posted a decline in new student enrollments of 22% from 8,050 to 6,244 year on year and lost a top university brand, Lancaster University, to INTO in 2023.

A more detailed review of the underlying issues at long-term partner James Madison University shows the problems that Study Group may still have in holding on to its pathway business.  In that context it seems possible that new partner universities, whatever their merits, will be welcome if Ardian are considering how best to extract themselves from an investment which seems unlikely to have satisfied expectations, in a sector that is in significant turmoil.  Getting out of Australia just as the tide seems to be turning looked a curious decision but the growing risks in the UK must be leaving many senior people with sleepless nights. 

Maybe this is the moment that a major (and often discussed) reunion bringing Andrew Colin’s two creations – Study Group and INTO University Partnerships – together might provide the critical mass and overhead savings to compete effectively while balancing risk around the globe.  The merits of merging two businesses that have struggled to make headway in recent years, and where one is embroiled in legal dispute with a major US university, might be questionable.  Perhaps CEG should be thrown in the mix to complete a trifecta.            

Shake It All About

The three new partners are University of Nebraska – Omaha, CSU San Marcos and Townson University in Maryland.  Study Group is putting its brand in at points north, east and west with a group of institutions that might be described as eclectic.  One thing that connects them looks to be slow progress in recovering international student numbers quickly after the pandemic.

University of Nebraska – Omaha positions itself as “Nebraska’s Metropolitan University”.. “dedicated to the city and state in our name.”   It’s international enrollment since 2019 has followed a broad pattern of decline in undergraduate numbers but an encouraging uptick in graduate students since 2020.  One would guess that the relatively low tuition fee of $22,358 and value for money housing costs could also be an attraction.

On the other hand, Nebraska might be a tough sell as a location and it’s worth noting that the University of Nebraska – Lincoln is the dominant international student recruiter in the state.  It claims the “lowest tuition in the Big Ten” at $28,792 and looks in a good position to dominate competitively.      

Warren Buffett, the “Sage” of Omaha, is among the more famous residents of Nebraska.  With a presidential election in 2024 and possible uncertainties that might bring it is difficult not to think of his dictum, “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”  Given Study Group’s US record that might be worth thinking about.  

Source: University of Nebraska – Omaha Office of Institutional Effectiveness

Those who think of California as an ideal location for international student recruitment need to remember that the performance of the big players is not always replicable.  For every University of Southern California (15,729 international students in 2022 according to Open Doors) there is a, um, CSU San Marcos (CSUSM).  The international new student enrollment at CSUSM was never particularly high and appears to have been in serious decline for four years with little joy even in graduate recruitment.

Tuition and fees at CSUSM look reasonable at $18,160 for UG rising to c$22,000 for most Graduate degress but room and board costs are less so.

Source: CSU San Marcos Office of Institutional Planning and Analysis

One the east coast Towson University has a new President in Mark Ginsberg and was embroiled in a controversy earlier this year for allegedly “creating programs that already exist at historically Black colleges and universities.”  It later withdrew the program.  It bills itself as a “…nationally recognized leader in inclusive excellence.”

With undergraduate fees of around $28,000 a year it is the most expensive of the three but presumably the location offers some relief from the sunshine of southern California and the seasonal extremes of Nebraska.  It’s non-resident student fall enrollment has been lackluster for several years with graduate numbers creeping up only slowly.

Source: Towson University Office of Institutional Research  

You Put Your Whole Self In

Good strategy requires long-term commitment, intense focus and a relentless drive to implement effectively even as circumstances change.  If this is Study Group’s new direction they will need to move very quickly to build their portfolio and execute enrollment against some entrenched opposition.  It may be, however, that the sale of the Australian portfolio and the saturation of the UK market has reduced options to the point where it is the only game left to play.

NOTES

  1. The Hokey Pokey is an Americanization of the Hokey Cokey which reached peak popularity in the UK in the 1940s.  The peak of popularity in the US is claimed to be the 1950s. Perhaps Study Group intend to revitalize it…
  2. The line is from what is, in my view, The Boss’s greatest song “Thunder Road”. Written in 1975 it was the first song on breakthrough album Born to Run. Apparently he played it as first song when he first played in the UK in November 1975.

Image by OpenClipart-Vectors from Pixabay

Closing Open Doors

This is probably the final blog relating to Open Doors data on 2022 enrollment of international students for US universities and the more recent data published by individual universities for fall 2023. That makes it a bit longer than usual and it includes a small diversion into some recent commentary about online being the new international!

Beavering Away Or Bellying Up?

The yearly posting of detailed information from Oregon State University (OSU) offers timely data, good detail and easy accessibility.  Universities in the UK and around the world would do well to follow the model if they want to engage more effectively with the public.  It is difficult to have a serious discussion about trends or for politicians to make good decisions when information is more than two years out of date.

All that said, this year’s data reflects the continuing struggles of some well-regarded US universities and their pathway partners to recover after the pandemic.  The detailed numbers underline the perils of over-reliance on a single market and the reality that the US bounceback outlined by Open Doors fall 2022 data is patchy.  As noted in a previous blog, the data gives clarity on why pathway partner INTO University Partnerships (INTO) didn’t mention the university in its press release suggesting a “..huge surge in international student enrollment for its US institutional partners..”.

The total of enrolled UG and graduate students shows that OSU is making no progress in recovering the volume of international students lost since the pandemic.  There has been a small uptick in graduate students (+68) but undergraduate numbers continue to plummet with a decline of 16% year on year (-192).  While the year-on-year decline is slowing, OSU does not appear to have benefited in 2022 or from the reported increase in international enrollments indicated by the Open Doors Fall 2023 Snapshot.   

Source: Oregon State University Officer of Institutional Research

NB: INTO OSU students, excluding those on Academic English courses, are included in these totals

The driving factor for the decline is that the university was heavily reliant on Chinese students and has been unable to significantly grow numbers from India or elsewhere.  In its other historically stronger recruitment markets OSU is losing ground with Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Taiwan all in decline over four years.  What seems difficult to explain, given OSU’s quality and the supposed recruiting power of its private partner, is that the Open Doors state by state detail suggests two other Oregon universities – Portland State University and the University of Oregon – seem to have stabilized their overall number of international students in 2023 more effectively than OSU.  

Source: Oregon State University Officer of Institutional Research

It is also clear that the pathway proposition (INTO OSU) offered by INTO is not providing much momentum with a down year in 2022 and a net increase of just seven students in 2023.  Without a substantial shift in recruiting market dynamics it is difficult to see a path or a way (sic) to significant growth in the future.

Source: Oregon State University Officer of Institutional Research

The decline in INTO OSU’s numbers reflects even more clearly the past reliance on China (and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia).  Taiwan now contributes more volume to the pathway than China.  The aphorism “you can’t buck the market” is often attributed to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher but it’s a warning to operators around the world that changing to meet shifting market conditions is critical to long-term success.

Source: Oregon State University Officer of Institutional Research

Is Online The New International?

An interesting rider to all this is the recent blog by Glenda Morgan in Phil Hill’s On EdTech Newsletter.  She asks the question, “Is Online the New International” and noted that “..by 2021 eCampus was the largest source of OSU’s tuition revenue.”  The suggestion in the newsletter is that US university focus on international student recruitment might be drifting, in the context of continuing pressure on budgets at state level, towards online recruitment.

The article contains a quote from Rajika Bhandari summarizing that, “Most students coming from India are at the graduate level. This has always been the case and likely will be for the foreseeable future.  Therefore, just from a recruitment and revenue perspective, they are never going to have the same impact on an institution’s bottom line as the Chinese undergraduate students.”  I first speculated on this in a UK context in January 2020 and have made the point on a number of occasions that the impact on traditional pathways was likely to be even greater.

The article leads to an interesting conclusion about “..the costs involved in physical campuses.” Anyone who has worked at a university sees how the emotional ties to the institution’s location are almost as powerful as the existence of labs, lecture theatres and student housing. One suspects it will take many years (or possibly a few university insolvencies) to change that mindset.

It’s thought-provoking stuff and may mean that some universities are already accepting the constraints on globally mobile international students as a revenue source.  This would leave some of the commercial operators who have no track record in either delivering or recruiting to online courses with a bleak future.  There may be a particular danger where academic English courses are concerned as James Madison University noted in its consideration of failure by Study Group to recruit to an Intensive English Language program.

Do Private Providers Make A Difference?

In October 2020 a Report by NAFSA, APLU and INTO made the claim that “Institutions with third-party pathway partnerships were 1.73x more likely to experience international enrollment growth…”.  The data analysed was across two historical periods – 2007-2015 and 2015-2018 – and there was a lot of weighty statistical explanation.  Against that background it is interesting to apply a simple comparison to see what has happened in recent years.

The graph below takes the Open Doors state by state enrollment numbers for three of INTO’s “present” comprehensive university partners (with pathways) and places them alongside those of three “past” partners who no longer have pathways with INTO.  The time series avoids the peak pandemic affected years of 2021 and 2022 but show prior performance and how the bounceback might be happening.  Washington State University (WSU) and Colorado State University (CSU) ceased being pathway partners in 2021 and 2022 respectively but are direct recruitment partners.  The University of South Florida claims to have terminated the pathway partnership in April 2022 but a legal battle is ongoing and is the subject of several earlier blogs.

This data appears to show that past partners WSU and CSU had declining numbers before the breakup and that being direct recruitment part has shown no benefit in terms of growing numbers post pandemic.  On the other hand, the split and no ongoing direct recruitment relationship does not seem to have stopped USF from driving its international enrollments significantly higher in 2023.

The “present” comprehensive partners shown all have pathways but allow INTO to recruit directly to certain university programs.  There is a satisfying upward curve to the University of Alabama – Birmingham (UAB) curve and George Mason University (GMU) also appears to have bounced back strongly in 2023.  It is all the more perplexing that Oregon State University has been in decline since 2017 and looks to be the worst performer among the six.

It would seem fair to say from this data that a comprehensive partnership with a pathway is no guarantee of growing enrollments, that being a direct recruitment only partner appears to have relatively little impact on performance and that it is entirely possible for a university to drive enrollment outside of any relationship with a pathway/direct recruitment partner. While there was little doubt that INTO helped OSU make rapid progress in international recruitment for several years until about 2016 a lot has happened since then.

None of this is to suggest that the Report by NAFSA, APLU and INTO was incorrect in its analysis.  However, it is reasonable to believe that the changing international student source markets, growth in competition and other factors should make institutions negotiate hard if they are looking at these relationships.  Building a business or a growth strategy on data that is five years old and past glories is probably not a good idea.  

Source: Open Doors State Facts and Figures

It is also increasingly clear that pathways are unlikely to be the answer, with further evidence from UAB showing that the INTO pathway courses have struggled to recover after the pandemic and that Academic English is showing almost no signs of revival at all.  This reflects the situation at GMU reported in a previous blog and the minor increase of seven students for OSU shown in the graphs above.  This pathway picture appears to be repeated across Study Group and Shorelight pathway partners.

 Source: University of Alabama at Birmingham Office of Institutional Effectiveness   

NOTES

As alway, the analysis in this blog reflects a genuine attempt to interpret and consider the implications of data from public sources. It is recognized that there may be minor underlying differences in the way the data is collected. The source of the data is given so that readers may make their own judgements and if an authoritative source makes contact the author will make appropriate amendments.

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

A Study Of A Stumble

It is difficult to understand why publications claiming an international audience continue to quote the headline numbers from the annual Open Doors release.  The inclusion of OPT numbers would only be relevant in comparison to, say, the UK if the number of students on post-study work visas was added.  The real headline is that US enrollment of undergraduate and postgraduate students in 2022/23 was up 12.4% year on year but still nearly 33,000 lower than 2017/18.

At a more granular level, the new international undergraduate intake of 95,681 appears to be well below the 2017/18 comparator of 108,539 and so the reduced accumulator factor of undergraduates will slow overall growth in future years.  On the global competitiveness scale it also, for example, looks well below the UK’s 2021/22 international intake of “first year, all undergraduate” recorded by HESA.  While the counting of the numbers is always a fine art and some differences may apply, it seems difficult to agree that the US enrollment of international students is “soaring” against the main competitors but we will have a better direct comparator when the UK’s data for 2022/23 comes out early next year.

The Fall 2023 Snapshot on International Student Enrollment doesn’t seem to give real cause for breaking out the champagne.  The 8% headline figure shown includes both non-degree and OPT students which leaves the undergraduate and graduate groups growing by 3% and 7% respectively.  If those percentages turn out to be accurate we can expect next year’s Open Doors to show an aggregated total growth for UG and Masters of about 5.3% year on year to 2022/23 and still at a total lower than 2018/19.

Study Group Stumble

The Open Doors release comes as we continue to see fallout in the pathway sectors in the US with the recent news that Study Group’s relationship with Baylor University has come to an end.  The winding down of Study Group’s US portfolio over several years with what looks like the haphazard or, more kindly, opportunistic addition of new partners1 may also indicate a strategic vacuum as the organization comes under pressure to perform.  It’s longest-term partner appears to be James Madison University (JMU) which came on board in 2009 but recent signs there are not encouraging.

Notes from the JMU Provost’s Committee on International Student Recruitment suggest that the relationship may not be producing the results required and that Study Group’s recruitment power may be under question.  We learn in the 2022-2023 End-of-Year Report from May 2023 that JMU had sought other support and contracted, in 2021/22 with EduCo to “increase direct admit students”. The Report also noted, ominously, that “we see no productivity from EduCo”.  At the time of writing JMU does not appear on the EduCo list of “highly collaborative working partnerships with universities”.

A procurement process was in place to appoint University Study to support international recruitment.  This would appear to have been successful as JMU does appear, alongside around 200 other US universities and colleges, on the University Study list of study destinations.  It may be a little early for them to have had an impact on the international student enrollment presented below.

Mind Your Language

Another action noted in the JMU Report is the introduction of an Intensive English Program (IEP) through Study Group requiring “…Federal permission in 2021 to modify our I-17..”.2  The resulting online and inperson IEP was offered for the first time in Summer 2022 but the report notes, “No students participated in summer 2022 and it looks like no students will participate in summer 2023.”  Perhaps interestingly the May 2022 Report of the group had indicated “we think because there are lower-cost options, e.g., DuoLingo, for students needing to enhance language proficiency.” 

Discussion to explore international online programs with Study Group had been put on hold. The overall tone looks less than encouraging and the suggestion that students might be finding alternatives to intensive English programs is worth considering as an aside. The Open Doors Report on Intensive English Programs in the US suggests that student weeks rebounded a little in 2022 but that average weeks per student fell to historic lows of 10.4 compared to 13.8 in 2020 and 15 in 2015. There seems limited opportunity in that market.

The Numbers Count But So Does The Mix

Three graphs from JMU capture the shifting winds of international recruitment in the US.  Since 2015 total US non-resident students have fallen by 334 students (56.3%).    

Source: JMU Planning, Analytics & Institutional Research

Graduate student numbers have grown in successive years with a rise of 126.7% on a relatively modest base of 45 to reach 102.

 Source: JMU Planning, Analytics & Institutional Research

More painful is the decline in international undergraduate students by 71.4% to 167 from a high of 548.  The proposed undergraduate tuition, insurance and student services fee for 2024/25 is $35,600 per year which implies a loss of over $13m in yearly revenue compared to 2015 intake volumes.  More troubling is that the recent trend is still downwards despite suggestions of increasing applications in the Committee Reports.

 Source: JMU Planning, Analytics & Institutional Research

Who’s That Knocking At The Door?

It does look as if the recruitment environment for the US has irrevocably changed with the shift in international student recruitment markets. Over and above that the revitalization of Australia, the uncertainty (but continuing lure for now of guaranteed post study work) in the UK and Canada’s bait (however tenuous) of citizenship have made major competitor destinations even more accessible and attractive. Adding into the picture the global desire of countries from Germany and France to South Korea and Japan to increase their recruitment and retention of the international student market and it would take a brave individual to suggest the attraction of the US is wholly secure.

NOTES

  1. Study Group ended relationships with universities/colleges Merrimack, Roosevelt, Widener, Vermont, City College NY, Oglethorpe, Lynne and now Baylor between 2019 and 2023. They gained De Paul and Hartford as CEG closed its US operations in 2019 and added Florida Atlantic University (as a direct recruitment partner) in 2021. At the time of writing they appear to have four direct recruitment partners and three pathway partners in the US.
  2. The I-17 is the petition (an application) filed with the DHS that, when approved, allows the enrollment of non immigrant students (with gratitude to Thomas P. FitzGibbon III for correcting my earlier definition).

Image by Clker-Free-Vector-Images from Pixabay

Remember the Name

It’s always a pleasure to have data released contemporaneously so we are grateful to colleagues at INTO University partnerships for sharing enrollment statistics related to their US university partners last week.  We’ll come on to possible reasons why this might have appeared but note that it might help flesh out any data released on Monday, November 13 in the IEE Fall 2023 Snapshot on International Enrollment.  For now, it’s worth digging in and seeing how this detail matches up against earlier application data released by INTO and the emerging partner university data on fall 2023 enrollments.

What a difference six months makes

The enrollment growth and application growth numbers reported by INTO this year are similar only in that the words “huge growth” are used in the graphics.  Back in May 2023 INTO indicated a “136% growth in applications for forthcoming intakes this year”.   The graphic indicated this was from a global average growth in applications of 201% for direct entry and 52% growth for pathways.  The average was driven largely by applications from south Asia and the Americas with China, Hong Kong and Macau lagging some distance behind.

In their recent release on growth in enrollments for US partners the numbers for direct entry and pathways have been aggregated and the contribution of source countries has shifted.   The headline stat is that INTO are claiming an average 34% growth in enrollment for their US partners in the fall 2023 intake with the Americas leading the way as a source market.  Because we are dealing with percentages and they are spread across a range of partners and courses the headcount is not known, the base numbers are a mystery, and the split between pathways and direct is not possible to divine. 

However, the media release indicates this means “more than 2,900 students..have enrolled into a range of undergraduate and graduate programs with INTO’s US partners for the Fall 2023 intake.” This number includes “..students eligible for direct admission as well as those opting for pathway and other programs supported by INTO Centers.”  We might presume, with reasonable certainty, that the claim would have been “nearly” or “approaching” 3,000 if it had been more than 2,950 students.

On this basis the simple maths, using 2,950 enrollments as the fall 2023 number, is that INTO’s entire US intake across 19 listed comprehensive and recruitment partnerships, rose by c750 year-on-year i.e. an additional 34% on 2,200.  That’s an average of, um, 39 per university if each got an even share.  Because INTO does not have responsibility for enrollment across all courses at its partner universities it is not possible to know the extent to which the INTO numbers impact upon the overall university performance.

An analysis of publicly available data from two INTO partners who have published fall 2023 enrollment details sheds some further light on this.

University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB)

The year-on-year change in undergraduate and graduate non-resident aliens enrolled at UAB is +242 (up 17%)1.  As is probably expected with the shift in enrollment markets, the bulk of this is in graduate enrollment with undergraduate numbers falling.  The number of part-time non-resident alien students in the total has grown by 115 out of the 242, which would mean FTE enrollment has not grown by the same amount as the headcount and the income generated is probably lower. One possibility is that these are dependents on F-2 visas.   

        

Source: The Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Analysis, University of Alabama

(Note: Between Fall 2022 and Fall 2023 the description changed from Non-Resident Alien to US Non-Resident but there is no indication that the classification of students included changed.  Personally, I would wholly applaud the removal of the word “alien” from any description of international students.)

A 17% increase in enrollments is some way short of the 34% average increase indicated by INTO and the increase in part-time further reduces the impact of the intake.  It may simply be that INTO does not recruit to most UAB courses so their success is not reflected in the overall numbers.        

George Mason University (GMU)

As discussed in a recent blog the university level growth at GMU in year-on-year fall 2023 enrollment of “non-resident aliens” was 9.9% with an extra 389 students. Again, the driver was master’s level students with UG in continued decline.  The INTO Mason pathway delivered an additional 12 students over its fall 2022 intake which was a growth of 9.2% and left it 100 below the pre-pandemic 2019 intake.

Source: George Mason University Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Planning

The Bigger Picture

INTO’s media release quotes the “prime example” of “the partnerships at The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB), Suffolk University, Hofstra University and George Mason University.”  No mention of the long-term poster child at Oregon State University (OSU) where internationals enrollments declined from a peak of 3,556 in fall 2019 to 2,338 in fall 2022.  Underlying this is that the INTO pathway has suffered a significant decline from its peak of 1,496 students enrolled in fall 2014 to just 250 in fall 2022. 

It would be a surprise to many if OSU has not undertaken work to develop their programs to provide support and maximise the success of international students. The omission is a good reason that the 2023 numbers from OSU could make interesting reading when they are released in a few weeks.  They should also give some insights into the way that fluctuations in the source markets have manifested themselves in enrollments for both direct entry and pathways.

Source: Oregon State University, Office for Institutional Research

It seems possible that by choosing to offer separate pathway and direct recruitment applications numbers in May but aggregated enrollment numbers in November, INTO has masked the slow progress of pathway operations in the US in reaching pre-pandemic levels.  It will be particularly interesting to see how the numbers of Chinese students has altered year on year and historically the OSU data has provided that insight at a granular level.        

The limitations on analysis emphasises the frustrations when organizations release percentages rather than headcount numbers and is why the detail offered by some universities is so valuable to gain insights.  It would also be reasonable to say that one of the reasons universities work with private sector partners is to enhance their overall global profile rather than simply recruiting onto specific courses.  In that respect one might argue that UAB and GMU are underperforming in the INTO portfolio so it will be interesting to see how their overall international numbers relate to the Open Doors figures for the sector next week.        

The Even Bigger Picture

There is no doubt that around the world there has been a resurgence in global student mobility.  Recent OECD reports indicate that “international student flows reached a record high in 2022” with just under six million students abroad in higher education. There is growing confidence in the continuation of this trend with Holoniq predicting 8 million students “enrolled with foreign institutions”, possibly even 9 million, by 2030.  Eight million students studying overseas has long been a part of the higher education sector’s holy grail and the origins of this were analysed in a blog as far back as February 2018.

Notwithstanding this, INTO’s increased profile raising and willingness to engage with direct recruitment partners might suggest that we are, again, in a period when there is a search for new investment.  With Navitas active in buying parts of Study Group’s business in May and other signs of merger and acquisition activity picking up this might be a good moment to promote interest in an international recruitment business with momentum.  It might be wishing too much, however, to hope that investors are as swayed by short-term bounces or long-term “predictions” as they were in the early 2010’s. 

Investment Dealers Digest was, apparently, the first non-skiing print publication to use the metaphor of investment bankers who had “been out over their skis a little bit” on a deal.  In this context, interested parties might note that Holoniq’s predictions are tempered with a range from 6 million to 9 million and that we are already seeing the difficulties faced by many countries in managing the scale of the influx of international higher education students.  Also worth considering is the continuing sophistication of technology in delivering education, the spectre of nationalistic governments managing their borders more closely and the propensity of global systems to succumb to climate, pandemic and economic shocks. 

NOTES

As always the analysis is a genuine attempt to reflect publicly available statistics. Authoritative comment or correction of any errors or misunderstandings in the data interpretation are welcome and will be acknowledged.

The blog title reflects the elusiveness of data that is only expressed in percentages. In the song Remember the Name by hip-hop ensemble Fort Minor the lyrics say, “This is ten percent luck, twenty percent skill fifteen percent concentrated power of will. Five percent pleasure, fifty percent pain And a hundred percent reason to remember the name.” It might be a good description of the work of an international recruiter trying to promote their university!

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Knocking on Open Doors

Each year the Open Doors announcement of US international enrollment numbers is given a big build up but only serves as a reminder that the higher education sector’s approach to data release is antiquated.  A delay of a year in publishing student numbers might have been acceptable in the days of quill pens1, abacuses2, parchment3 and pigeon post4 but it is difficult to accept it in the early 21st century.  So, on November 13, 2023, Open Doors will give us something that any marketer, recruiter or strategist will find as satisfying as a warmed up meal – congealed, lukewarm and not nearly as appetizing as something freshly cooked.

The figures released will relate to the 2022 academic year and are not likely to tell decent international officers very much of interest.  That recruiting season is long in the past and the numbers will provide little insight for the 2024 cycle, the impact of a resurgent Australia, developing markets or the new competitive spirit around the globe.  What makes it doubly frustrating is that most universities already know their 2023 enrollment numbers and some make the data available. 

Looking at these institutions provides some guidance on what has happened this year and occasionally at a good level of detail.  It’s also a good place to see how earlier claims about application rates may or may not have been a decent guide to enrollment.  For some institutions there is even enough data to see how their pathway operations are doing.

Sunrise or False Dawn

INTO’s press release of May 2023 suggested a “Strong surge in international student demand across INTO partnerships in the United States”.  There was an average of 52% more applications for “pathway and INTO Center supported programs” and a 201% increase in applications for “directly entry” (sic).  The release came just one year after the University of South Florida took action that, it claims, terminated the joint-venture and just two months before the University of South Florida sought a declaratory judgement to enforce winding up of the partnership.5

Source: INTO University Partnerships, May 2023

It is reasonable to note that the figures were aggregated across all partners but it’s interesting to see how things played out in enrollment growth at an individual partner university.  George Mason University’s (GMU) recently available fall census figures show that the pathway college and joint-venture INTO Mason has seen a modest increase of 12 students year on year (up 9.2%) and is still 100 below the pre-pandemic 2019 intake.  2016 was the peak intake and there seems little chance of recovery to those highs.

At the university level, the total growth in enrolled “non-resident aliens” was 9.9% (389 students).  This was driven by postgraduate masters enrollment while undergraduate enrollment continued its decline from a high point in 2019 and remains below the 2016 level.  There seems little evidence of a resurgence in growth from China but universities still due to report may give us more detailed insights. 

Source: George Mason University Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Planning

INTO has recently announced a recruitment partnership with the University of Oklahoma (OU), Norman campus, and that institution may have been interested in the potential suggested by INTO’s stated growth in applications.  A glance at the enrollment data indicates that while international first-time freshmen numbers at OU have been relatively static since the pandemic the bounce in total international students has seen a 17.5% increase since the low in 2020.  Numbers for Fall 2023 are not yet available but it seems likely that OU would welcome direct recruitment growing closer to the GMU levels.      

Meanwhile Auburn University, a Shorelight partner, is also showing how difficult life can be for pathway programs.  The number of on campus, resident aliens enrolled in the four listed Auburn Global programs below continues to, at best, bump along the bottom. For ease and clarity the data shown is taken directly from the Auburn University website. 

 Source: Auburn University Office of Institutional Research

At a top level, however, the rise in non-resident alien graduate recruitment has pushed Auburn University back to pre-pandemic levels of enrollment. As with GMU the decline in undergraduate appears to have stabilized.

Source: Auburn University Office of Institutional Research

As noted in previous blogs Shorelight has made a significant pivot to direct recruitment and continues to add new partners while slimming down its pathway offerings.  This seems to be a reasonable direction of travel in the US. 

Paved With Good Intentions

The pathway model continues to have some strength in the UK and Australia markets.  In the UK this looks to have been propped up by “International Year One” activity that exploits the gap between the lowest level of English language capability for university study acceptable for visa purposes and the lowest level most universities are prepared to accept for direct admission.  A significant competitive threat (leaving the UK Home Office aside) is that some universities seem increasingly willing to reduce requirements and allow direct entry which may limit the scope for growth for pathway operators.

Over time the US higher education sector has tried the pathway model but appears to have found it wanting.  The response of pathway operators is to try and leverage their expensive global recruitment organizations and become carriers of multiple university brands for direct recruitment purposes.  Brand dilution and switch hitting of students between brands seem obvious potential concerns for institutions when considering such arrangements.

All the time there is also the tick-tock of governments looking at the damage to national reputations from largely unregulated and increasingly discredited recruitment practices involving agents.  It is not that agents are necessarily unscrupulous but that technology has enabled a flood of new entrants which has destabilized a model where universities had at least a passing understanding of who was using their brand to recruit.  Technology and the aggregator model have probably exacerbated the problem to the detriment of many, including the visa system in Canada and the ability of university admissions teams around the world to keep up with the volume.

It’s a complex time which is another reason that we could do with near contemporaneous release of data from the sector both to optimise recruitment efforts and to allay any unjustified responses from legislators.

NOTES

As always, the data shown is a genuine attempt to interpret and represent information available on university websites. The source is shown for reference. In the event that my interpretation or understanding of the data is incorrect I am happy to receive authoritative clarifications for publication.

  1. Quills were the primary writing instrument in the western world from the 6th to the 19th century.
  2. The word abacus dates to at least AD 1387 when a Middle English work borrowed the word from Latin that described a sandboard abacus.  The Sumerian abacus appeared between 2700 and 2300 BC.    
  3. Parchment is a writing material made from specially prepared animal skins.  The word is derived from the Koinē Greek city name, Pergamum in Anatolia, where parchment was supposedly first developed around the second century BCE
  4. In the 5th century BC the first network of pigeon messengers is thought to have been established in Assyria and Persia by Cyrus the Great.  The Romans used pigeon messengers to aid their military over 2000 years ago.
  5. The case is complex and this sentence summarises the situation. For further reading see The Complaint for Declaratory Judgement which is Filing # 153460265 E-Filed 07/15/2022 07:45:26 PM in the Circuit Court of the Thirteenth Judicial Circuit in and for the state of Florida Civil Division. I have written a number of blogs on this ongoing issue.

Image by Dennis Larsen from Pixabay

Rulings, Filings and Finances

There have probably been better fortnights for INTO University Partnerships (INTO) than the last two of July 2023.  Losing a decision in the court case against the University of South Florida (USF) and missing financial filing deadlines for both INTO University of East Anglia and the parent company are not calculated to bolster confidence or impress existing and potential partners.  Rumours of another round of redundancies and outsourcing also reflect the challenges facing the business.

Truth and Wisdom

Following a hearing on 27 June, Circuit Judge Darren D. Farfante has dismissed Count V of the Second Amended Complaint filed by INTO against Defendants Jennifer Condon, Karen Holbrook, Nic Trivunovich, and Ralph Wilcox.2  In simple terms, the judgement noted that “…sovereign immunity bars Count V of the Second Amended Complaint against the FC Directors as pled.”  The Plaintiffs, INTO USF, Inc., INTO USF LP, and INTO University Partnership Limited, “…subsequently advised the Court that they will not amend and dismissal of Count V of the Second Amended Complaint should be entered for purposes of appeal.”

While the plaintiffs could choose to re-engage on this point if the case ever goes to appeal the position is that after months of assertions that the USF Joint Venture Directors had “breached their fiduciary duties”,3 that particular strand of the matter is closed.  It is difficult to believe that the legal pursuit of individuals hasn’t left some scars on both sides and it may have put the issue of personal liability into the minds of university joint venture board directors elsewhere.  Rulings in one state may not be directly applicable to another but they may offer a sense of how closing a similar joint venture could play out elsewhere. 

Hard on the heels of the judgement USF moved to “..dismiss IUP’s Supplemental Pleading4 with prejudice.”5  This appeared to be substantially on the grounds that Sovereign Immunity also “..Bars Counts X, XI, XII, XIII and XIV”.  The filing also states that that “…opposing counsel (i.e. INTO’s counsel) has not requested that the undersigned stipulate to the filing of a second amended complaint” which seems to suggest the judge will now determine the outcome on these Counts.    

It may be that forthcoming discussions will lead towards a settlement of some sort with notification that a Mediation Conference has been scheduled for 29 September, 20236.  One might think that both organizations would be glad to see an end to such a public dispute.  As always, the author of this blog does not claim any legal expertise and advises readers to seek detailed information to form their own opinions9. 

History Man to Remains of the Day

The decline of INTO’s first joint venture at the University of East Anglia (UEA) is a saddening tale for anybody involved in the successful early days of the initiative.  The rhetoric was largely about the game-changing nature of long-term public-private partnerships but for those involved in the reality of international recruitment the immediate opportunity for increasing enrolments was clear.  INTO has removed the UEA case study from its corporate pages but the early days were genuinely transformational.

While the crisis at the University and the departure of its Vice-Chancellor has broader causes the situation has been exacerbated by a significant decline in the enrolment and financial fortunes of the joint venture.  The late filing, for the second year in a row, of the joint venture’s financial statement due on 31 July, 2023, means it is not possible to know whether enrolments fell even further in 2021/22 but the direction of travel has been downwards since 2015.  It is also likely that this has contributed to UEA’s declining revenue from international students.

It seems reasonable to believe that the late filing may be due to broader discussions about the future of the joint venture relationship.  New vice-chancellor, Prof David Maguire, is on record as saying that the immediate future is about “survival of the fittest” and it is difficult to see a compelling case for preserving the joint venture while cutting back on schools of study that have formed the institution’s history and sense of self.  At a time when reports say 400 positions – equivalent to 10 per cent of the workforce – have already been lost at UEA through redundancies, severance and resignations, the extent to which the university should continue to help prop up a loss-making commercial venture must be in question.

There may be an alternative argument that the joint venture brings opportunities for direct recruitment to help UEA out of its current problems.  Whether to stick or twist and whether it is wiser to be the history man6 or look with confidence towards the remains of the day7 is a very real choice.  Given the length of the joint venture contract originally signed and what appears to be a lack of performance it will be interesting to see if UEA would consider the USF route to resolution.

Patet omnibus veritas8

INTO’s financial accounts to July 2022 noted that its cash position during the year had declined from £20.5m to £9.4m year on year and that it had “revised EBITDA covenants agreed with its bankers to February 2024”.  It’s difficult to know what is going on under the surface but rumours of further cutbacks are circulating and it seems plausible that there is a squeeze to cut costs early in the financial year that began on 1 August 2023.  The urgency may be sharpened by developing views on enrolment numbers because, as with many education businesses, a significant portion of revenue will be baked in quite early in the year.

A previous blog suggested some of the issues that the incoming CEO, in February 2023, might want to consider.  The Executive Team has already been slimmed down a reduction in higher salaries is to be expected when the 2022/23 results are published.  On the other hand, expenditure on opening University Access Centres seems to be continuing, there is a new partnership to launch at Lancaster University, the recovery of pathway operations in the US looks patchy and there is the spectre of more stringent visa controls in the UK ahead of 2024 recruitment.

In the US, the recent addition of a recruitment only deal with Montclair State University makes little headway in the struggle to recover and compete after several years of joint-venture closures and the acceleration of direct recruitment partnerships by main competitor Shorelight.  In the UK, the partnership with Lancaster University brings a high tariff institution to the party but Study Group didn’t seem able to keep Lancaster happy so the pressure to perform is certain to be on. There does not seem to be any news of further progress in Australia. 

INTO must also be waiting with bated breath on the outcome of the Manchester Metropolitan University International Study Centre tender.  There is rarely a dull moment, which may be why they have been a bit too busy to file their Confirmation Statement to Companies House.  Or it could be that there is even bigger news to come.

NOTES

  1. Truth and Wisdom is the motto of the University of South Florida
  2. Final Order: 07/24/2023 02:59:36 PM Electronically Filed
  3. Filing # 167652717 E-Filed 02/27/2023 07:53:06 PM (point 137 and others)
  4. Filing # 175778804 E-Filed 06/21/2023 09:45:06 AM
  5. Filing # 178214351 E-Filed 07/25/2023 05:09:59 PM
  6. Filing # 179194479 E-Filed 08/08/2023 03:23:11 PM
  7. A small homage to Malcolm Bradbury, author of The History Man (1975), one of the most evocative novels about university campus life of the era, who became Professor of American Studies at the University of East Anglia in 1970 and launched the MA in Creative Writing course.  The course has been attended by several eminent authors including Kazuo Ishiguro who won the Booker Prize in 1989 for his book Remains of the Day and went on to be awarded the 2017 Nobel Prize for Literature.  My best wishes to all colleagues and friends still working hard to make UEA a success again.
  8. “Patet omnibus veritas” is the Latin version of Lancaster University’s motto.  It translates to Truth Lies Open to All.
  9. The background to the court case between INTO University Partnerships and the University of South Florida has been outline in several previous blogs. As before the terms INTO and University of South Florida are used as short forms for the range of corporate plaintiffs and defendants. Full details and all public documents reference in this blog can be found through https://hover.hillsclerk.com/html/case/caseSearch.html the Hillsborough County Clerk of Courts search facility. Insert 22 for the year, CA-Circuit Civil for the Court type and 006001 for the case number.

INTO The Interim

Back in June 2021, INTO University Partnerships (INTO) appointed Olivia Streatfeild as its first woman CEO, and in June 2022 she became the first woman Director.  There were plenty of strategic decisions to make as the world struggled out of a debilitating pandemic and INTO reflected on a five-year period when it had lost six joint ventures and struggled to maintain enrollment volumes.  Just two years later agents have been briefed that long-term Andrew Colin lieutenant, John Sykes, is stepping in as Interim CEO.

As well as being a main board director and a “co-founder”, Sykes has been part of the operational, decision-making Executive Team throughout the last decade.  While the presumption might be that this will mean continuity it will be interesting to see how many of the Streatfield decisions stick.  Here are some other issues that might need attention.     

Beware the Fog On the Tyne

INTO’s engagement with Newcastle University has had its shares of ups and downs.  Since 2016 the average number of students enrolled in the INTO Newcastle center has varied from 1142 in the best year down to 627 in 2021/22.  The fluctuation in Operating Profit reflects the sensitivity to student enrollment.

NB: The Operating Profit excludes significant exceptional items in 2016, 2017 and 2018.  The 2019 and 2021 figures are as adjusted in the INTO Newcastle University LLP Annual Report.

In 2021 the LLP’s Annual Report noted that the joint venture based in Newcastle has moved to majority ownership of 51% by INTO.  The joint venture launched in London in 2015 as INTO Newcastle London and long term readers will know the shifting sands of the INTO operation in Middlesex Street, including the links with Josef Mifsud whose whereabouts remain unknown.  INTO Newcastle London came under the sole control of Newcastle University in late 2020 and while the changes in controlling party mean any intercompany transactions are no longer reported by INTO, we do know that in 2020 the JV was a indebted to INTO to the tune of £5.4m.

A small sideshow is that Newcastle University awarded a year-long contract starting in January 2023 for ‘The Provision of International Market Research and Business Development – USA’ including ‘in-country liaison, advice and marketing activity to support the University’s strategies.’  Perhaps surprisingly this was not entrusted to INTO’s US team but to Foothold America Inc.  To be fair Newcastle had already been awarded two contracts to INTO worth around £1m, starting August 2022 and November 2022, for similar work over three years in South/South-East Asia and China respectively.

Magic Kingdom or Repo Man

The US was once seen as the land of opportunity for pathway operators but it’s become increasingly harder work and INTO’s exposure is second only to Shorelight. The legal battle between INTO and USF is likely to be disruptive, time consuming and expensive and it continues with the next hearing scheduled for 10 May and a new round of discussions with a mediator to come.  All the while, legal arguments are being made about the extent to which the USF Directors may or may not have been in breach of their fiduciary duty to the joint venture.

If that’s not enough of a headache, 2023 has seen the end of the joint venture with Illinois State University added to the closures at Colorado State University (2021), Marshall University (2020) and Washington State University (2022).  The operation at St Louis University became wholly owned by INTO in 2021 and despite added firepower on the business development side in the US there does not appear to have been much progress in adding many new partners – either joint venture or direct recruitment.  Meanwhile, the enrollment decline in continuing operations at flagship joint ventures like Oregon State University are evident.

Source: Oregon State University Office of Institutional Research

The company’s own research suggests that only 34% of China, HK and Macau agents surveyed think they will send more students to the US in the coming year which, by implication, means 66% will send the same or fewer.  The struggles of the last few years have also seen US joint ventures stacking up increasing levels of debt to INTO with every single US joint venture showing higher debt than the year before in the 2022 Annual Report.  It is difficult to see the way forward.             

Happy Mondays or The Fall as Manchester Decides

In July 2019 the University of Manchester awarded a five-year contract to INTO’s wholly owned Manchester operation for “Managed Service Provision of Pre-Degree Programmes for International Students”.  It has probably been a significant driver of the INTO Manchester performance over the years and 2021/22 saw the operation roar back to achieve record recruitment and profit.  The contract was for 300k and the contract period ends in July 2024.

Alongside that is the tender for an embedded study center with recruitment opportunity with Manchester Metropolitan University (MMU) which is currently a partner of INTO Manchester.  It’s arguable that over the years MMU has done less well in terms of international enrollment than the popularity of the city suggests it should.  Both Kaplan (at Liverpool) and Navitas (at Swansea) have shown their willingness to become involved in capital projects as joint ventures so competition for the business could be hot.

If another provider wins either the University of Manchester business when it becomes due or the Manchester Metropolitan tender the consequences could be serious.  If it all goes wrong for INTO, the office by the Brighton seaside might echo to Morrissey lyrics like ‘Hide on the promenade, etch a postcard/’How I dearly wish I was not here.’

UK OK OR KO?

It looks like recruitment numbers are perking up in the UK but recovery is patchy with INTO UEA looking to be on life support as the university and the joint venture struggle with competitive realities.  While INTO University of Exeter enrollments withstood the pandemic reasonably well there has been little evidence of recovery in the recently released 2021/22 Annual Reports of joint ventures with Stirling, Queen’s or City .  While the HE sector in the UK has seen record international student recruitment over the past two years it does not seem to be feeding into pathway numbers.

Source: Joint/Venture Wholly Owned Annual Reports and INTO University Partnerships Annual Reports (NB: INTO UEA does not report for 2021/22 until July 2023.  For that reason the 2022 Total enrollment shown excludes the JV and is not wholly comparable with previous years.)

With Australia re-asserting its competitiveness, the US open for recruitment, Canada thriving and some evidence that increasing numbers of Chinese students are looking elsewhere for higher education it’s unlikely to get any easier.  INTO’s recent win at Lancaster University was good news for them but the QAA reports indicate that in 2018 it only had around 280 students and sector feedback is that Study Group found it hard going.  Whatever happens, the UK situation carries plenty of risks.

Sticking to the Knitting and Counting the Beans

The Interim CEO may want to look at some ratios and data from the INTO University Partnerships Limited Annual Reports available at Companies House.  The first confirms that the US contribution to turnover reflects the decline of the business.  Whether it can or will come back is an open question but I doubt it’s something to bet the house on.

A second issue worth thinking about is that data on staff attributed to the Group makes interesting reading.  Group staff costs in 2021/22 were more than 50% of turnover while in 2018/19 they were only around 38%.   It is possible that the categories have some underlying nuances and there have been job cuts in recent months but it seems a good starting point for operational efficiencies. 

Finally, in 2020/21 the number of employees earning over £100k a year was 40 while in 2021/22 it had grown to 48 – that’s 20%.  The number earning over £275k was four compared to one the year before.  For a business with revenue that was lower than 2019/20 that needs some unpacking.

The Big One

Perhaps the biggest strategic question is about the future ownership of the business and how quickly Leeds Equity would welcome some return on the £66m investment they made a decade ago.  The appointment of two relatively high-profile non-executives to the Board might suggest some intention to seek new external investment.  It’s also possible that Andrew Colin could take the business back into 100% sole control.

The final intriguing possibility, given the volatility and possible consolidation in the sector, is that this could be the moment where the business is sold.  Back in 2018 there were widespread reports that the business was up for sale with a price tag of £300m and in a sector full of rumours there have been unconfirmed suggestions that Navitas was showing interest shortly before the pandemic.  Taking on Lancaster, getting Manchester right and sorting out Newcastle would certainly strengthen the hand in any negotiation.

NOTES

Links are provided to publicly available information where possible.  Speculation and rumour are noted as such.  As always, the author would be happy to receive authoritative clarification on any specific points and will note any amendments.

Just some small notes on a few of the sub-headings:

1. Fog on the Tyne is a 1971 album and a single by Lindisfarne.  Footballer Paul Gascoigne provided vocals on a reworked single version that got to number two in the charts in 1990.

2. Magic Kingdom is a theme park at Walt Disney World where “fantasy reigns” while Repo Man is a 1984 film with a strong underlying commentary about the “last defense of capitalism” and “no sense of purpose”

3. The Happy Mondays and The Fall are Manchester bands.  The Happy Mondays were part of the Madchester sound of the 1980s and were named for the day their unemployment benefits arrived – “the day for getting off your face” as bassist Paul Ryder explained.  With 31 studio albums in 40 years (1979 to 2017) The Fall gloried in DJ John Peel’s description “they are always different; they are always the same.”   

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay