My recent blog on the significant underlying shifts in recruitment from China and India provoked some interest in what might be happening in other markets. Generally speaking, the traditional international student markets are too small to move the needle in quite the same way as the big two. But the main European Union (EU) markets throw up some interesting trends.
It shows what is at stake for some UK universities, particularly financially, if they begin to lose students from countries where they have made substantial gains in recent years. This may be, at least in part, an explanation for some of the decisions being taken to discriminate in favour of EU students against other international students by allowing them to continue with home student fees. It will be interesting to see if there is a legal challenge to this activity or whether such arrangements move from transitional to permanent after 2021.
According to HESA data, Poland, Romania, Portugal and Spain have shown the largest growth in enrollments from EU countries over the past five years. Numbers from Germany, Ireland and Cyprus have been in decline over that period while Italy and France have seen growing numbers at a lower level. The January 2021 UCAS data shows a 40% year on year decrease in EU undergraduate applications for entry in Autumn 2021 which is largely driven by the reality of most universities charging them international fees.
TABLE 1: Total Enrollments – Largest Growth Countries
Source: HESA
But as Table 2 shows the overall numbers do not reflect the pattern of growth from each country with Spain, while remaining the top overall sender of the four, seeing its year-on-year growth rate decline for each of the past four years. Poland has also seen its growth slowing each year during the same period. Portugal has grown most strongly for the past three years and Romania has had robust growth for the past two reported cycles.
TABLE 2: Year on Year Increase in Enrollments – Largest Growth Countries
Source: HESA
The most interesting thing is where the growth has occurred. Total UK enrollments from Romania grew by 2025 students between 2017/18 and 2019/20 with 76% of the increase going to the universities of Bedfordshire and Suffolk. It is worth noting that in both universities the overwhelming majority of enrolled Romanian students are full-time, undergraduates which brings significant benefits in terms of stability and income.
Over the five years Bedfordshire’s enrollment of home students has declined by 600 while EU numbers have increased by 1330. European enrollments have meant that the university’s tuition fee income from combined home and EU students rose by £20m (27%) between 2018 and 2020. It is a major achievement for a university ranked 123rd of 130 by the Complete University Guide in 2021.
TABLE 3 – Enrollments from Romania – UK Total and Top Two Universities
Source: HESA
A similar but less extreme situation occurs with enrollments from Portugal where Coventry and Anglia Ruskin have taken 35% of additional enrollments in the past two years.
TABLE 4 – Enrollments from Portugal – UK Total and Top Two Universities
Source: HESA
Enrollments from Poland, where total growth has been declining for each of the past four reported cycles shows a less distinct pattern. Taken over five years, Coventry and De Montfort have grown their Polish contingent more rapidly than any other universities. Their combined share of the growth both over the full period and in the last two years is around 23%.
TABLE 5 – Enrollments from Poland – UK Total and Top Two Universities
Source: HESA
Enrollments from Spain appear to be much more evenly distributed with well-ranked universities being to the fore but notable exceptions are Anglia Ruskin and University College Birmingham over the five-year period. No university in the UK has lost more than 50 students in their enrolled numbers of Spanish students in that time despite the slowing growth.
TABLE 6 – Growth in Enrollments from Spain – Top Ten Universities
| Enrollment 2019/20 | Increase 2015/16 to 2019/20 | |
| Anglia Ruskin | 240 | 190 |
| Warwick | 285 | 165 |
| Edinburgh | 360 | 150 |
| Sussex | 200 | 130 |
| Manchester | 325 | 125 |
| University College Birmingham | 140 | 110 |
| King’s College London | 340 | 110 |
| UCL | 375 | 110 |
| Imperial | 420 | 105 |
| Lancaster | 225 | 105 |
Source: HESA
The impact of growth from European Union countries may well be a driver of decisions to continue to offer favourable terms to EU students over other international students in 2021. However, it seems short-sighted and even counter-productive financially to offer blanket discounts if the main sending markets are limited to one or two countries. Over the longer term it seems inevitable that less economically advantaged areas of Europe will continue to see advantageous tuition fee discounts if UK universities want to maintain enrollments.
Another factor that may be worthy of consideration is that changes to post-work study visas may prove attractive to some European Union students even after Brexit. Portugal and Romania remain below the European average in terms of GDP while Poland and Spain are above it and the opportunity to find work in the UK may continue to support growth. But we may also have to place that potential against rising unemployment for 16-24 year old’s in the UK (up to 14.3% in February 2021 compared to 11.3% in February 2020) and the economic uncertainties post-Brexit and post-pandemic in summer of 2021.
It seems likely that the story of recruitment from the European Union has several more cycles to play out. With rising numbers of 18-year-olds in the UK the political nuances of allowing EU students to take places at the same fee as home students while not expanding provision for home students may also bring rising tensions. There are no easy choices here.