It’s been the quietest year for nearly a decade in terms of announcements about new pathway partnerships in the US, and the 2019 Inside Higher Education (IHE) survey of College and University Admissions Officers suggests a shift in perceptions by institutions. The closure of several centers in the past year and disappointing enrollments at a number of institutions have given plenty of reason to be cautious. But faith persists in some sectors.
In the Survey only 12% of public doctoral institutions strongly agreed that “Pathway programs will become more important to US higher education in the current environment.” In the 2018 survey that percentage was 22%. Among Private Non/Profit Doctoral/Masters institutions, the percentage of respondents agreeing or strongly agreeing to the statement fell from 60% to 51%.
Table 1 – Pathway Programmes Importance to US Higher Education (IHE, 2018)
Table 2 – Pathway Programmes Importance to US Higher Education (IHE, 2019)
However, there has been an almost Damascene conversion among Public Master’s/Baccalaureate institutions, where 28% now strongly agree in pathways’ growing importance, compared to 15% last year. This is mirrored in the Private Non-profit Baccalaureate section where 56% agree or strongly agree compared to 33% last year. While, at an aggregate level the survey shows declining enthusiasm for pathways it is clear that they still hold an allure for some institutions.
The real question for the new enthusiasts will be whether the private pathway providers have much appetite for non-doctoral institutions. The portfolios of the ‘big two’, Shorelight and INTO, contain universities offering doctorates some have quite limited offerings. Study Group have a mixed bag of institutions and recently some at non-degree level in Canada, and Navitas has some non-doctoral universities on the roster.
Potential for new, high-profile partners may become even more limited as stronger US institutions become increasingly comfortable with their capacity and capability to manage enrollments without resorting to a third party. While, to date pathway providers have been the more likely party to terminate partnerships empowered or disappointed universities might begin to question underperforming relationships or decide they can do better alone. The scene is set for more turbulence as people come to terms with the new global mobility conditions.
Furthermore, the UK’s move to institute a two-year Post Study Work (PSW) visa for students enrolled from 2020 may bring further pressure and undermine the US’s position as a favored destination for international students. After a 33% surge in Chinese undergraduate applications to the UK for 2019/20, the UK Home Office reported that the number of Indian students choosing to study in the UK increased 42% from June 2018 to June 2019. It is likely that following the PSW announcement, India’s numbers will continue to grow rapidly for the 2020 intake.
Alongside that, the US is heading for an election year where the future of global relationships, student visas and existing post-study options could be part of the political debate. Just as the financial markets dislike turbulence it is difficult to see why a student would choose to invest in an uncertain future. The relatively safe havens and emerging, quality options around the world could seem increasingly attractive.
For Study Group and Navitas any difficulties in recruitment to the US will be mitigated by increasing momentum behind their considerable portfolios in other parts of the world. INTO’s mix is more finely balanced but its recent focus has been on the US and it has just lost the University of Gloucestershire as a UK pathway partner. Shorelight is wholly US based and will face the full force of global headwinds.
It certainly seems likely that pressure on sales teams, cost of acquisition and other “promotional” tactics will increase. Local difficulties, such as those Shorelight are facing in Kuwait, will also impact on the ability to recruit sufficient students for existing partners let alone new ones. Life is unlikely to get any easier in the short term and may get a lot worse, which might seem to mitigate against continuing expansion, particularly with sub-optimal partners.
However, ‘doubling down’ is a popular phrase in the US and has come to mean ‘to strengthen one’s commitment to a particular strategy or course of action, typically one that is potentially risky.’ The IHE survey suggests that at least one sector of the market is increasingly interested if pathway operators have the appetite. But in terms of recruitment it might be worth remembering that, as the UK’s ‘Iron Lady’, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said in 1997, ”you can’t buck the market.”
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