Tag: US higher education

You Must Remember This

One prediction for 2024 is that the ongoing legal dispute between INTO University Partnerships (INTO) and the University of South Florida (USF)1 is likely to provide hours of insight and legal argument.  It appears that the mediation of November 2023 was unsuccessful2 and there is plenty of continuing legal activity in the early part of 2024.  As ever, the summary below is taken from published documents and makes no observation on the arguments made by either side.

The Fundamental Things Apply

Things get moving early in the year with a JAWS hearing on a USF Motion for Summary Judgement on Thursday 4 January3.  INTO had been granted a continuance on a hearing of the Motion back in September 20234 but their next motion to delay the hearing further was denied on 4 December 20235.  The motion seeks a summary judgement against “(…the “INTO Entities”) on Count I, Breach of Contract, and Count VI, Breach of Duty of Good Faith and Fair Dealing, of the Second Amended Complaint (“SAC”)”.6

A range of legal arguments have been made on both sides and the tone is set early in the most recent submissions.  INTO’s filing suggests that the summary judgement should be denied because USF’s “..allegedly “unambiguous” interpretation of the contracts at issue is still unsupported by the contract language and violates the core tenets of contract law”.7  On the other hand USF’s response to that filing starts with the line, “The INTO Entities’ response ignores basic contract law.”8

In this context, it is interesting for a lay-person to read an article written for the Bar Association of San Francisco which starts, “If you wish to be taken seriously by the court, whether in oral or written argument, never malign or belittle your opponents or their position.”  As previous blogs have noted the various flourishes, acid comments and hyperbole in the written submissions for this case seem to ignore that advice with monotonous regularity.  

That No One Can Deny

Already up and running, with a lot more to come, is the taking of depositions under oath and on the record.  There must be a lot of management time, effort and probably stress (as well as lawyers fees) going into briefing and preparation for these.    

INTO’s lawyers are taking depositions from 14 USF related individuals9 with a start on December 12, 2023 and continuing from January 5 to January 25, 2024.  These include Glenn Besterfield, who was center director for INTO USF when it opened in 2009.  He later became dean for the Office of Admissions and associate vice president for student success at USF before moving on to become Dean of Enrolment Management at the University of North Florida in spring 2023.      

For USF the count runs to 12 INTO related individuals10 with ex-global COO Anmar Kawash and ex-CFO Jon Holmes among them.  The depositions start on January 4 and end with INTO founder Andrew Colin on Wednesday, March 13.

As Time Goes By

It is no surprise that this depth and breadth of activity led to a third extension of case management deadlines on 14 December11.  The Order indicates that discovery closes on March 29, 2024, with expert discovery closing on June 14, 2023 and the “Deadline to have dispositive and Daubert motions12 heard of [Friday], August 23, 2024.”  This seems set for the long haul.

In its Annual Report to July 2022, INTO noted as “contingent liabilities” that it had “provided for legal fees up to 31 July 2022 in relation to this ongoing litigation.  Further legal fees are expected to be incurred in FY23 in respect of this dispute and have been included in forecasts for this period.” It looks like FY24 will have more of the same.

For the University of South Florida their financial audit for the year to July 2022 said, “The University is involved in several pending and threatened legal actions. The range of potential loss from all such claims and actions, as estimated by the University’s legal counsel and management, should not materially affect the University’s financial position.”  To give this some context USF’s operating revenue for the year was $894m.

NOTES

The title and sub-headings of the blog are from “As Time Goes By” made famous by Dooley Wilson in the film Casablanca which was released in 1942. Dooley was a singer and drummer but not a pianist so the tinkling of the ivories was dubbed in. The song was written by Herman Hupfeld who was born nearly 130 years ago on 1 February 1894. Even as time goes by, class is permanent.

  1. The background to the court case between INTO University Partnerships and the University of South Florida has been outlined in several previous blogs. As before, the terms INTO and University of South Florida are used as short forms for the range of corporate plaintiffs and defendants. Full details and all public documents reference in this blog can be found through https://hover.hillsclerk.com/html/case/caseSearch.html the Hillsborough County Clerk of Courts search facility. Insert 22 for the year, CA-Circuit Civil for the Court type and 006001 for the case number.
  2. Filing # 188238925 E-Filed 12/18/2023 01:13:33 PM (point 4. of Exhibit 25 – Affidavit of Shawn J. Rabin)
  3. Filing # 187809851 E-Filed 12/11/2023 08:28:02 PM
  4. 09/14/2023 11:07:38 AM Electronically Filed: Hillsborough County/13th Judicial Circuit
  5. 12/04/2023 12:13:13 PM Electronically Filed: Hillsborough County/13th Judicial Circuit
  6. Filing # 179813559 E-Filed 08/16/2023 03:28:09 PM)
  7. Filing # 188161134 E-Filed 12/15/2023 06:08:23 PM
  8. Filing # 188693985 E-Filed 12/27/2023 11:55:52 AM  
  9. Filing # 186997655 E-Filed 11/29/2023 02:20:27 PM
  10. Filing # 186594368 E-Filed 11/21/2023 12:05:10 PM
  11. 12/14/2023 10:05:23 AM Electronically Filed: Hillsborough County/13th Judicial Circuit
  12. A Daubert motion is a specific type of motion in limine13.  It is raised before or during trial, to exclude the presentation of unqualified evidence to the jury.  Daubert motion is used to exclude the testimony of an expert witness does not possess the requisite level of expertise or used questionable methods to obtain data.  It is the outcome of 1993 Supreme Court case, Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharms., 509 U.S. 579 (U.S. 1993).
  13. Always interesting when a footnote needs a footnote but the term was new to me.  In limine is a Latin term meaning “on/at the threshold”.  In this context it relates to a pretrial motion requesting that certain evidence be found inadmissible.

Image by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay

A Look Before You Leap

Recovering from the gluttony of Christmas dinner and resolving to resist the lure of nibbling on leftovers is a little like universities making new year resolutions to be slightly less greedy and indiscriminate about international student recruitment.  We all know that it makes sense to lose the excess pounds, focus on high quality, nourishing food, and cease acting with the incaution of a drunken sailor.  But the temptation of finishing the mince pies, the bottle of egg nog and the turkey sandwiches, while avoiding the gym is sometimes overwhelming.

Maybe that’s why it’s up to Governments to decide who has been naughty or nice and who deserves a visit from the Ghost of Christmas 2024.  The last few months of 2023 saw a lot of political posturing and positioning in the four main recruiting countries and the impact of some changes are already being felt.  A quick look at the implications suggests that for the big four recruiting countries international recruitment at the latter end of 2024 will be a Nightmare Before Christmas for some but a Miracle on 34th Street for others.

The good news for student recruiters is that it’s a leap year so they have a whole extra day to work out their response.1

United Kingdom

The gift of post-study work in September 2019 gave UK universities the keys to the student recruitment larder but they appear to have been caught eating too much low-quality pie.  This has left the sector vulnerable to Government action and it is likely to find the coming recruitment cycle difficult.  Enroly Data Insights in November 2023 indicated “..overall deposit payments are down by 52%, CAS issuance is down by 64% and visa issuance is down by 71% when compared to January 2023.”  While the year-on-year comparison has its limitations there seems little doubt that changes in Government visa policy on dependents is already biting.

News in early December that a review of the Graduate Route to “prevent abuse” and “protect the integrity and quality of the UK’s outstanding higher education sector” may not augur well for the medium term either.  Although the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) is not likely to report on the issue until near the end of 2024, when a general election is either under way or already over, one suspects that any new Government, will accept its recommendations. MAC recommended against the graduate route before it was introduced and there is no reason to believe they won’t do so again.

MAC’s starting point seems clear from the Annual Report 2023 where it notes that there are “..a very different set of students accessing the route than might have been expected based on student patterns in 2019 when the route was announced.”  The largest growth has been “predominantly been in institutions that charge the lowest fees” and “been strongest at the less selective universities”.  Anyone who understands international recruitment would have predicted these outcomes and it is quite extraordinary that Government supporters of the Graduate Route did not understand these as likely outcomes.  

A possible saviour for the current length of post-study work visa might be that the recent restrictions on dependents make a serious enough dent in international student numbers before the main intake in autumn 2024.  Aligned with an unwillingness to invest further in the higher education sector this could find the narrow path that allows the next Government to see how net migration figures play out for at least another year before imposing further constraints.  One suspects, however, that the ideological setting of MAC will demand more in terms of quality recruitment and a requirement to move to a different visa after study.      

Canada

The growth in Canada’s international student recruitment numbers has been remarkable.  According to Erudera, study permit holders nearly doubled from 2016 (410,570) to 2022 (807,750) with international students in tertiary education increasing by around 150,000 from 2015/16 (228,924) to 2020/21 (373,599).  The strength of recruitment from India has been a feature of the market for many years so it was well placed to capitalize on the boom of recent years.

Many observers would reflect that the magnitude of the growth has come at a cost to processes and reputation.  Claims of “bureaucratic mismanagement” were being called out as long ago as 2017 and there have been reports of universities accepting 99% of international students who apply and/or having visa rejection rates around 80%.  Issues around aggregator platforms allowing institutions to absolve their responsibilities for agents and the sheer volume of applications causing delays in visa processing or allowing fraudulent applications through have also been prominent.      

It does look as if the Canadian federal government has responded to the various scandals around students starving, dying and being misled about their study choices but in the wrestling match with powerful provinces it is difficult to see a comprehensive response taking hold. One response to a possible international enrolment cap was from Alexandre Lahaie, a spokesperson for Quebec’s Immigration Ministry saying that “Quebec does not intend to impose a cap on the number of foreign students in its jurisdiction…..Although issuing study permits is the responsibility of the federal government, education is the exclusive power of Quebec,”.  The pace of change can be slow as reflected by the cost-of-living financial requirement for students going up recently for the first time since the early 2000s.

While the IRCC has signalled a new Trusted Institution framework in 2024 and the International Education Strategy is due a refresh in mid-2024 experts reflect that this is a “challenging policy area”.  It is difficult to see that a minority Government facing an election no later than October 2025 is likely to want to upset the apple cart, particularly when some suggest Prime Minister Trudeau’s own role as party leader is under scrutiny.  One suspects that any changes to policy on international student recruitment in 2024 will be about tidying up around the edges and minimizing friction rather than significantly reducing intakes.

Australia

While the Australian government has rattled its sabre over the issues of international student recruitment the smart money seems to be on plenty of light touch regulation and monitoring along with touches on the tiller for employability without significantly damaging intakes.  The Australian Migration Strategy released in December 2023 looked a pretty nuanced document that provides plenty of space to “…lift the standards for international students and education providers while ensuring graduates help meet skills shortages and do not become permanently temporary.”

Study Australia leapt on the Strategy to suggest a join up between clear post study pathways, genuine student requirement, requirements on education providers and high-quality education agents.  By maintaining special initial stay periods for Indian nationals they have kept faith with a key market while setting IELTS at 5.5 for university foundation and pathway programs at the same time as moving levels for Temporary Graduate and Student visas upwards balances access with quality.

In contrast to the UK and Canada there seems to be a coherence in the Migration Strategy which respects the strength of its higher education sector as a critical part of national branding and infrastructure while addressing issues in the private VET sector where some “have systematically exploited Australia’s education system and broken migration law.”  Issues of graduate employability are addressed with the responsibility of institutions being noted and a study commissioned “..to better analyse international student outcomes and pathways into the labour market, with deep tripartite consultation of unions, employers, and training and education providers.”

Some are concerned that the measures put in place to date will have a dampening impact on recruitment but the sense is of a more reassuring picture than that being offered by the UK.  Placed alongside some speculation that the Canadian juggernaut might be losing pace this is likely to make the Australian picture pretty benign for international students.  2024 looks like it should be another good year. 

United States of America

For the growing sending markets the USA is a highly desirable country with a well-regarded higher education sector.  There is also every sign that US universities seeking to increase international recruitment have upped their game in terms of focus, competitive awareness and professionalism.  Even the Government has played its part with exceptional numbers of visas processed in 2023, amendments to H-1B visas and steps towards modernizing the visa process more generally.

The India numbers were material in driving international enrolments in Fall 2023 and the chief executive of the Institute of International Education was positively gleeful in suggesting, “Made in the USA is something that these students and families want on their diplomas.”  It should be very difficult to be negative about the potential for the US to substantially grow international enrolments in 2024.  The real question is what might disturb that and what might happen next.

A presidential election in November 2024 already has some pundits claiming that a re-election for Donald Trump would lead to, “A mass deportation operation. A new Muslim ban. Tariffs on all imported goods and “freedom cities” built on federal land.”  Study Portals data from 2016 suggests that more than 50% of international students were “far less likely” to study in the US than they were before Trump’s election.  It is difficult to see why the outcome would be any different in the coming year.

Trump’s views on higher education institutions suggest there may be even wider implications for the sector.  The noise around the election is bound to rise and the rhetoric is almost certain to ramp up in a way that begins to make alternative countries look a more stable option.  Relationships with India could also become a bit sticky if the threatened “retribution” on reciprocal taxation looks like becoming a reality.

Summary

The world offers many options delivering courses in English and most are finding ways of making post-work study a possibility with some going further in terms of possible routes to citizenship.  In the face of uncertainty many agents and students have a tendency to consider their options and look for the route of least resistance to meet their needs.  The evidence of the past few years is that options are kept open and decisions can be delayed for much longer than ever used to be the case.

We also seem to be seeing Governments viewing higher education and its capacity for international recruitment as a work-force planning component in the face of changing population demographics.  While university leaders are quick to proclaim quality education as the key driver of global interest there is growing evidence that low cost, post graduate employability and routes to citizenship are much more important for the growing markets.  All this at a point when the enthusiasm for university education is under pressure from disenchanted youth, apathetic public and cash-squeezed Governments.

More than ever before there is a need for joining up the dots in the way that the Australian Migration Strategy seems to do (although everyone recognizes that implementation is something different).  The UK seems to lurch from policy to policy without much apparent insight into the consequences and Canada appears to be slow moving and in thrall to competing interests across Federal and Provincial governments.  The US runs the risk of finding its historical attraction and dominant position undermined by more nimble players while internal, political factionalism prevents any realistic hope of long-term, strategic planning for growth.     

Notes

  1.  Royal Museums Greenwich tell us that “the first leap year in the modern sense in Britain was 1752, when 11 days were ‘lost’ from the month September with the adoption of the Gregorian calendar by Britain and her colonies. After 1752 we adopted the system still in use today where an additional day is inserted in February in years wholly divisible by four, other than years ending in 00 with the exception of those divisible by 400 which are still leap years (like 2000).”  

Image by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay

Study Group Hokey Pokey

In recent months there has been triumphant messaging on LinkedIn from Shorelight’s Tom Dretler claiming that the business “brought more international students to the US” than anybody else in fall 2023.  It was queried by Andrew Colin of INTO University Partnerships with the riposte “Are you sure?” to which Tom posted a thumbs up sign.  Probably better than the middle finger emoji but as neither of them would be able to definitively prove the point we are probably none the wiser.

What is clear is that Shorelight, having overtaken INTO for pathway partnerships within three years of springing into existence, has also significantly outstripped the erstwhile US market leader in terms of direct recruitment options.  But as the US comes back to life after a tough and long pandemic it is interesting to watch the maneuvering of other players.  There is no doubt that there are probably hundreds of US universities who would like to get on the gravy train of southeast Asia enrollment opportunities so we should expect a glut of wannabe global student recruitment options emerging.

Enter Study Group, whose approach to the US has been akin to a slightly the worse for wear dad doing the Hokey Pokey1 on new year’s eve.  The gyrations of the past few years are a painful reminder that a business that could once claim to be among the world leaders as a private provider of recruitment services to universities seems to be struggling for identity, a sense of direction and worst of all hard cash.  Having abdicated to Navitas in Australia by selling all of its holdings and now facing a UK Tory Government lining up post-graduate work as the Christmas sacrifice to right-wing rebellion, it seems to have turned attention across the Atlantic.

The announcement of three new direct recruitment partners may look like a decisive step but you have to wonder whether this represents a strategic drive for market share or a gambler’s final throw.  A quick look at the recent international student enrollment record and a few facts about each university might suggest that we are at the stage of the evening where subdued lighting and sufficient refreshment has brought lonely souls together.  Maybe inspiration on the partnerships has been drawn from the mighty Bruce Springsteen’s suggestion that “Show a little faith, there’s magic in the night, You ain’t a beauty, but hey, you’re alright.”2

Shake It All About

Between 2019 and 2021 Study Group ended relationships with seven US universities and, as recently reported, has seen Baylor University depart the fold in 2023.  Some of the relationships had been in place as long ago as 2008 but there was a burst of activity with new partners in 2013 and 2014 after the purchase of Study Group from Champ Private Equity by Providence Equity Partners for a reported £388.3m in 2010.  Of the four partners added at that point only one remains.

By 2017 Study Group was on the block again.  It seem entirely possible that the addition of seven new partners between 2016 and 2018 was driven as much by the desire to show momentum as long-term strategic planning.  Four of the seven are no longer partners.  Current major backer Ardian bought the business in 2019 without the terms of trade being made public but at a point when the decline in US international pathway businesses was already evident.

Timing is everything and nobody could have predicted the pandemic to come, so Ardian have been obliged to put up with some even more difficult times.  Between February 2021 and March 2023 they tipped a further £77m into the business according to Study Group’s Annual Report and Financial Statements. Despite that in the year ended 2022 Study Group posted a decline in new student enrollments of 22% from 8,050 to 6,244 year on year and lost a top university brand, Lancaster University, to INTO in 2023.

A more detailed review of the underlying issues at long-term partner James Madison University shows the problems that Study Group may still have in holding on to its pathway business.  In that context it seems possible that new partner universities, whatever their merits, will be welcome if Ardian are considering how best to extract themselves from an investment which seems unlikely to have satisfied expectations, in a sector that is in significant turmoil.  Getting out of Australia just as the tide seems to be turning looked a curious decision but the growing risks in the UK must be leaving many senior people with sleepless nights. 

Maybe this is the moment that a major (and often discussed) reunion bringing Andrew Colin’s two creations – Study Group and INTO University Partnerships – together might provide the critical mass and overhead savings to compete effectively while balancing risk around the globe.  The merits of merging two businesses that have struggled to make headway in recent years, and where one is embroiled in legal dispute with a major US university, might be questionable.  Perhaps CEG should be thrown in the mix to complete a trifecta.            

Shake It All About

The three new partners are University of Nebraska – Omaha, CSU San Marcos and Townson University in Maryland.  Study Group is putting its brand in at points north, east and west with a group of institutions that might be described as eclectic.  One thing that connects them looks to be slow progress in recovering international student numbers quickly after the pandemic.

University of Nebraska – Omaha positions itself as “Nebraska’s Metropolitan University”.. “dedicated to the city and state in our name.”   It’s international enrollment since 2019 has followed a broad pattern of decline in undergraduate numbers but an encouraging uptick in graduate students since 2020.  One would guess that the relatively low tuition fee of $22,358 and value for money housing costs could also be an attraction.

On the other hand, Nebraska might be a tough sell as a location and it’s worth noting that the University of Nebraska – Lincoln is the dominant international student recruiter in the state.  It claims the “lowest tuition in the Big Ten” at $28,792 and looks in a good position to dominate competitively.      

Warren Buffett, the “Sage” of Omaha, is among the more famous residents of Nebraska.  With a presidential election in 2024 and possible uncertainties that might bring it is difficult not to think of his dictum, “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”  Given Study Group’s US record that might be worth thinking about.  

Source: University of Nebraska – Omaha Office of Institutional Effectiveness

Those who think of California as an ideal location for international student recruitment need to remember that the performance of the big players is not always replicable.  For every University of Southern California (15,729 international students in 2022 according to Open Doors) there is a, um, CSU San Marcos (CSUSM).  The international new student enrollment at CSUSM was never particularly high and appears to have been in serious decline for four years with little joy even in graduate recruitment.

Tuition and fees at CSUSM look reasonable at $18,160 for UG rising to c$22,000 for most Graduate degress but room and board costs are less so.

Source: CSU San Marcos Office of Institutional Planning and Analysis

One the east coast Towson University has a new President in Mark Ginsberg and was embroiled in a controversy earlier this year for allegedly “creating programs that already exist at historically Black colleges and universities.”  It later withdrew the program.  It bills itself as a “…nationally recognized leader in inclusive excellence.”

With undergraduate fees of around $28,000 a year it is the most expensive of the three but presumably the location offers some relief from the sunshine of southern California and the seasonal extremes of Nebraska.  It’s non-resident student fall enrollment has been lackluster for several years with graduate numbers creeping up only slowly.

Source: Towson University Office of Institutional Research  

You Put Your Whole Self In

Good strategy requires long-term commitment, intense focus and a relentless drive to implement effectively even as circumstances change.  If this is Study Group’s new direction they will need to move very quickly to build their portfolio and execute enrollment against some entrenched opposition.  It may be, however, that the sale of the Australian portfolio and the saturation of the UK market has reduced options to the point where it is the only game left to play.

NOTES

  1. The Hokey Pokey is an Americanization of the Hokey Cokey which reached peak popularity in the UK in the 1940s.  The peak of popularity in the US is claimed to be the 1950s. Perhaps Study Group intend to revitalize it…
  2. The line is from what is, in my view, The Boss’s greatest song “Thunder Road”. Written in 1975 it was the first song on breakthrough album Born to Run. Apparently he played it as first song when he first played in the UK in November 1975.

Image by OpenClipart-Vectors from Pixabay

Closing Open Doors

This is probably the final blog relating to Open Doors data on 2022 enrollment of international students for US universities and the more recent data published by individual universities for fall 2023. That makes it a bit longer than usual and it includes a small diversion into some recent commentary about online being the new international!

Beavering Away Or Bellying Up?

The yearly posting of detailed information from Oregon State University (OSU) offers timely data, good detail and easy accessibility.  Universities in the UK and around the world would do well to follow the model if they want to engage more effectively with the public.  It is difficult to have a serious discussion about trends or for politicians to make good decisions when information is more than two years out of date.

All that said, this year’s data reflects the continuing struggles of some well-regarded US universities and their pathway partners to recover after the pandemic.  The detailed numbers underline the perils of over-reliance on a single market and the reality that the US bounceback outlined by Open Doors fall 2022 data is patchy.  As noted in a previous blog, the data gives clarity on why pathway partner INTO University Partnerships (INTO) didn’t mention the university in its press release suggesting a “..huge surge in international student enrollment for its US institutional partners..”.

The total of enrolled UG and graduate students shows that OSU is making no progress in recovering the volume of international students lost since the pandemic.  There has been a small uptick in graduate students (+68) but undergraduate numbers continue to plummet with a decline of 16% year on year (-192).  While the year-on-year decline is slowing, OSU does not appear to have benefited in 2022 or from the reported increase in international enrollments indicated by the Open Doors Fall 2023 Snapshot.   

Source: Oregon State University Officer of Institutional Research

NB: INTO OSU students, excluding those on Academic English courses, are included in these totals

The driving factor for the decline is that the university was heavily reliant on Chinese students and has been unable to significantly grow numbers from India or elsewhere.  In its other historically stronger recruitment markets OSU is losing ground with Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Taiwan all in decline over four years.  What seems difficult to explain, given OSU’s quality and the supposed recruiting power of its private partner, is that the Open Doors state by state detail suggests two other Oregon universities – Portland State University and the University of Oregon – seem to have stabilized their overall number of international students in 2023 more effectively than OSU.  

Source: Oregon State University Officer of Institutional Research

It is also clear that the pathway proposition (INTO OSU) offered by INTO is not providing much momentum with a down year in 2022 and a net increase of just seven students in 2023.  Without a substantial shift in recruiting market dynamics it is difficult to see a path or a way (sic) to significant growth in the future.

Source: Oregon State University Officer of Institutional Research

The decline in INTO OSU’s numbers reflects even more clearly the past reliance on China (and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia).  Taiwan now contributes more volume to the pathway than China.  The aphorism “you can’t buck the market” is often attributed to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher but it’s a warning to operators around the world that changing to meet shifting market conditions is critical to long-term success.

Source: Oregon State University Officer of Institutional Research

Is Online The New International?

An interesting rider to all this is the recent blog by Glenda Morgan in Phil Hill’s On EdTech Newsletter.  She asks the question, “Is Online the New International” and noted that “..by 2021 eCampus was the largest source of OSU’s tuition revenue.”  The suggestion in the newsletter is that US university focus on international student recruitment might be drifting, in the context of continuing pressure on budgets at state level, towards online recruitment.

The article contains a quote from Rajika Bhandari summarizing that, “Most students coming from India are at the graduate level. This has always been the case and likely will be for the foreseeable future.  Therefore, just from a recruitment and revenue perspective, they are never going to have the same impact on an institution’s bottom line as the Chinese undergraduate students.”  I first speculated on this in a UK context in January 2020 and have made the point on a number of occasions that the impact on traditional pathways was likely to be even greater.

The article leads to an interesting conclusion about “..the costs involved in physical campuses.” Anyone who has worked at a university sees how the emotional ties to the institution’s location are almost as powerful as the existence of labs, lecture theatres and student housing. One suspects it will take many years (or possibly a few university insolvencies) to change that mindset.

It’s thought-provoking stuff and may mean that some universities are already accepting the constraints on globally mobile international students as a revenue source.  This would leave some of the commercial operators who have no track record in either delivering or recruiting to online courses with a bleak future.  There may be a particular danger where academic English courses are concerned as James Madison University noted in its consideration of failure by Study Group to recruit to an Intensive English Language program.

Do Private Providers Make A Difference?

In October 2020 a Report by NAFSA, APLU and INTO made the claim that “Institutions with third-party pathway partnerships were 1.73x more likely to experience international enrollment growth…”.  The data analysed was across two historical periods – 2007-2015 and 2015-2018 – and there was a lot of weighty statistical explanation.  Against that background it is interesting to apply a simple comparison to see what has happened in recent years.

The graph below takes the Open Doors state by state enrollment numbers for three of INTO’s “present” comprehensive university partners (with pathways) and places them alongside those of three “past” partners who no longer have pathways with INTO.  The time series avoids the peak pandemic affected years of 2021 and 2022 but show prior performance and how the bounceback might be happening.  Washington State University (WSU) and Colorado State University (CSU) ceased being pathway partners in 2021 and 2022 respectively but are direct recruitment partners.  The University of South Florida claims to have terminated the pathway partnership in April 2022 but a legal battle is ongoing and is the subject of several earlier blogs.

This data appears to show that past partners WSU and CSU had declining numbers before the breakup and that being direct recruitment part has shown no benefit in terms of growing numbers post pandemic.  On the other hand, the split and no ongoing direct recruitment relationship does not seem to have stopped USF from driving its international enrollments significantly higher in 2023.

The “present” comprehensive partners shown all have pathways but allow INTO to recruit directly to certain university programs.  There is a satisfying upward curve to the University of Alabama – Birmingham (UAB) curve and George Mason University (GMU) also appears to have bounced back strongly in 2023.  It is all the more perplexing that Oregon State University has been in decline since 2017 and looks to be the worst performer among the six.

It would seem fair to say from this data that a comprehensive partnership with a pathway is no guarantee of growing enrollments, that being a direct recruitment only partner appears to have relatively little impact on performance and that it is entirely possible for a university to drive enrollment outside of any relationship with a pathway/direct recruitment partner. While there was little doubt that INTO helped OSU make rapid progress in international recruitment for several years until about 2016 a lot has happened since then.

None of this is to suggest that the Report by NAFSA, APLU and INTO was incorrect in its analysis.  However, it is reasonable to believe that the changing international student source markets, growth in competition and other factors should make institutions negotiate hard if they are looking at these relationships.  Building a business or a growth strategy on data that is five years old and past glories is probably not a good idea.  

Source: Open Doors State Facts and Figures

It is also increasingly clear that pathways are unlikely to be the answer, with further evidence from UAB showing that the INTO pathway courses have struggled to recover after the pandemic and that Academic English is showing almost no signs of revival at all.  This reflects the situation at GMU reported in a previous blog and the minor increase of seven students for OSU shown in the graphs above.  This pathway picture appears to be repeated across Study Group and Shorelight pathway partners.

 Source: University of Alabama at Birmingham Office of Institutional Effectiveness   

NOTES

As alway, the analysis in this blog reflects a genuine attempt to interpret and consider the implications of data from public sources. It is recognized that there may be minor underlying differences in the way the data is collected. The source of the data is given so that readers may make their own judgements and if an authoritative source makes contact the author will make appropriate amendments.

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

A Study Of A Stumble

It is difficult to understand why publications claiming an international audience continue to quote the headline numbers from the annual Open Doors release.  The inclusion of OPT numbers would only be relevant in comparison to, say, the UK if the number of students on post-study work visas was added.  The real headline is that US enrollment of undergraduate and postgraduate students in 2022/23 was up 12.4% year on year but still nearly 33,000 lower than 2017/18.

At a more granular level, the new international undergraduate intake of 95,681 appears to be well below the 2017/18 comparator of 108,539 and so the reduced accumulator factor of undergraduates will slow overall growth in future years.  On the global competitiveness scale it also, for example, looks well below the UK’s 2021/22 international intake of “first year, all undergraduate” recorded by HESA.  While the counting of the numbers is always a fine art and some differences may apply, it seems difficult to agree that the US enrollment of international students is “soaring” against the main competitors but we will have a better direct comparator when the UK’s data for 2022/23 comes out early next year.

The Fall 2023 Snapshot on International Student Enrollment doesn’t seem to give real cause for breaking out the champagne.  The 8% headline figure shown includes both non-degree and OPT students which leaves the undergraduate and graduate groups growing by 3% and 7% respectively.  If those percentages turn out to be accurate we can expect next year’s Open Doors to show an aggregated total growth for UG and Masters of about 5.3% year on year to 2022/23 and still at a total lower than 2018/19.

Study Group Stumble

The Open Doors release comes as we continue to see fallout in the pathway sectors in the US with the recent news that Study Group’s relationship with Baylor University has come to an end.  The winding down of Study Group’s US portfolio over several years with what looks like the haphazard or, more kindly, opportunistic addition of new partners1 may also indicate a strategic vacuum as the organization comes under pressure to perform.  It’s longest-term partner appears to be James Madison University (JMU) which came on board in 2009 but recent signs there are not encouraging.

Notes from the JMU Provost’s Committee on International Student Recruitment suggest that the relationship may not be producing the results required and that Study Group’s recruitment power may be under question.  We learn in the 2022-2023 End-of-Year Report from May 2023 that JMU had sought other support and contracted, in 2021/22 with EduCo to “increase direct admit students”. The Report also noted, ominously, that “we see no productivity from EduCo”.  At the time of writing JMU does not appear on the EduCo list of “highly collaborative working partnerships with universities”.

A procurement process was in place to appoint University Study to support international recruitment.  This would appear to have been successful as JMU does appear, alongside around 200 other US universities and colleges, on the University Study list of study destinations.  It may be a little early for them to have had an impact on the international student enrollment presented below.

Mind Your Language

Another action noted in the JMU Report is the introduction of an Intensive English Program (IEP) through Study Group requiring “…Federal permission in 2021 to modify our I-17..”.2  The resulting online and inperson IEP was offered for the first time in Summer 2022 but the report notes, “No students participated in summer 2022 and it looks like no students will participate in summer 2023.”  Perhaps interestingly the May 2022 Report of the group had indicated “we think because there are lower-cost options, e.g., DuoLingo, for students needing to enhance language proficiency.” 

Discussion to explore international online programs with Study Group had been put on hold. The overall tone looks less than encouraging and the suggestion that students might be finding alternatives to intensive English programs is worth considering as an aside. The Open Doors Report on Intensive English Programs in the US suggests that student weeks rebounded a little in 2022 but that average weeks per student fell to historic lows of 10.4 compared to 13.8 in 2020 and 15 in 2015. There seems limited opportunity in that market.

The Numbers Count But So Does The Mix

Three graphs from JMU capture the shifting winds of international recruitment in the US.  Since 2015 total US non-resident students have fallen by 334 students (56.3%).    

Source: JMU Planning, Analytics & Institutional Research

Graduate student numbers have grown in successive years with a rise of 126.7% on a relatively modest base of 45 to reach 102.

 Source: JMU Planning, Analytics & Institutional Research

More painful is the decline in international undergraduate students by 71.4% to 167 from a high of 548.  The proposed undergraduate tuition, insurance and student services fee for 2024/25 is $35,600 per year which implies a loss of over $13m in yearly revenue compared to 2015 intake volumes.  More troubling is that the recent trend is still downwards despite suggestions of increasing applications in the Committee Reports.

 Source: JMU Planning, Analytics & Institutional Research

Who’s That Knocking At The Door?

It does look as if the recruitment environment for the US has irrevocably changed with the shift in international student recruitment markets. Over and above that the revitalization of Australia, the uncertainty (but continuing lure for now of guaranteed post study work) in the UK and Canada’s bait (however tenuous) of citizenship have made major competitor destinations even more accessible and attractive. Adding into the picture the global desire of countries from Germany and France to South Korea and Japan to increase their recruitment and retention of the international student market and it would take a brave individual to suggest the attraction of the US is wholly secure.

NOTES

  1. Study Group ended relationships with universities/colleges Merrimack, Roosevelt, Widener, Vermont, City College NY, Oglethorpe, Lynne and now Baylor between 2019 and 2023. They gained De Paul and Hartford as CEG closed its US operations in 2019 and added Florida Atlantic University (as a direct recruitment partner) in 2021. At the time of writing they appear to have four direct recruitment partners and three pathway partners in the US.
  2. The I-17 is the petition (an application) filed with the DHS that, when approved, allows the enrollment of non immigrant students (with gratitude to Thomas P. FitzGibbon III for correcting my earlier definition).

Image by Clker-Free-Vector-Images from Pixabay

Remember the Name

It’s always a pleasure to have data released contemporaneously so we are grateful to colleagues at INTO University partnerships for sharing enrollment statistics related to their US university partners last week.  We’ll come on to possible reasons why this might have appeared but note that it might help flesh out any data released on Monday, November 13 in the IEE Fall 2023 Snapshot on International Enrollment.  For now, it’s worth digging in and seeing how this detail matches up against earlier application data released by INTO and the emerging partner university data on fall 2023 enrollments.

What a difference six months makes

The enrollment growth and application growth numbers reported by INTO this year are similar only in that the words “huge growth” are used in the graphics.  Back in May 2023 INTO indicated a “136% growth in applications for forthcoming intakes this year”.   The graphic indicated this was from a global average growth in applications of 201% for direct entry and 52% growth for pathways.  The average was driven largely by applications from south Asia and the Americas with China, Hong Kong and Macau lagging some distance behind.

In their recent release on growth in enrollments for US partners the numbers for direct entry and pathways have been aggregated and the contribution of source countries has shifted.   The headline stat is that INTO are claiming an average 34% growth in enrollment for their US partners in the fall 2023 intake with the Americas leading the way as a source market.  Because we are dealing with percentages and they are spread across a range of partners and courses the headcount is not known, the base numbers are a mystery, and the split between pathways and direct is not possible to divine. 

However, the media release indicates this means “more than 2,900 students..have enrolled into a range of undergraduate and graduate programs with INTO’s US partners for the Fall 2023 intake.” This number includes “..students eligible for direct admission as well as those opting for pathway and other programs supported by INTO Centers.”  We might presume, with reasonable certainty, that the claim would have been “nearly” or “approaching” 3,000 if it had been more than 2,950 students.

On this basis the simple maths, using 2,950 enrollments as the fall 2023 number, is that INTO’s entire US intake across 19 listed comprehensive and recruitment partnerships, rose by c750 year-on-year i.e. an additional 34% on 2,200.  That’s an average of, um, 39 per university if each got an even share.  Because INTO does not have responsibility for enrollment across all courses at its partner universities it is not possible to know the extent to which the INTO numbers impact upon the overall university performance.

An analysis of publicly available data from two INTO partners who have published fall 2023 enrollment details sheds some further light on this.

University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB)

The year-on-year change in undergraduate and graduate non-resident aliens enrolled at UAB is +242 (up 17%)1.  As is probably expected with the shift in enrollment markets, the bulk of this is in graduate enrollment with undergraduate numbers falling.  The number of part-time non-resident alien students in the total has grown by 115 out of the 242, which would mean FTE enrollment has not grown by the same amount as the headcount and the income generated is probably lower. One possibility is that these are dependents on F-2 visas.   

        

Source: The Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Analysis, University of Alabama

(Note: Between Fall 2022 and Fall 2023 the description changed from Non-Resident Alien to US Non-Resident but there is no indication that the classification of students included changed.  Personally, I would wholly applaud the removal of the word “alien” from any description of international students.)

A 17% increase in enrollments is some way short of the 34% average increase indicated by INTO and the increase in part-time further reduces the impact of the intake.  It may simply be that INTO does not recruit to most UAB courses so their success is not reflected in the overall numbers.        

George Mason University (GMU)

As discussed in a recent blog the university level growth at GMU in year-on-year fall 2023 enrollment of “non-resident aliens” was 9.9% with an extra 389 students. Again, the driver was master’s level students with UG in continued decline.  The INTO Mason pathway delivered an additional 12 students over its fall 2022 intake which was a growth of 9.2% and left it 100 below the pre-pandemic 2019 intake.

Source: George Mason University Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Planning

The Bigger Picture

INTO’s media release quotes the “prime example” of “the partnerships at The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB), Suffolk University, Hofstra University and George Mason University.”  No mention of the long-term poster child at Oregon State University (OSU) where internationals enrollments declined from a peak of 3,556 in fall 2019 to 2,338 in fall 2022.  Underlying this is that the INTO pathway has suffered a significant decline from its peak of 1,496 students enrolled in fall 2014 to just 250 in fall 2022. 

It would be a surprise to many if OSU has not undertaken work to develop their programs to provide support and maximise the success of international students. The omission is a good reason that the 2023 numbers from OSU could make interesting reading when they are released in a few weeks.  They should also give some insights into the way that fluctuations in the source markets have manifested themselves in enrollments for both direct entry and pathways.

Source: Oregon State University, Office for Institutional Research

It seems possible that by choosing to offer separate pathway and direct recruitment applications numbers in May but aggregated enrollment numbers in November, INTO has masked the slow progress of pathway operations in the US in reaching pre-pandemic levels.  It will be particularly interesting to see how the numbers of Chinese students has altered year on year and historically the OSU data has provided that insight at a granular level.        

The limitations on analysis emphasises the frustrations when organizations release percentages rather than headcount numbers and is why the detail offered by some universities is so valuable to gain insights.  It would also be reasonable to say that one of the reasons universities work with private sector partners is to enhance their overall global profile rather than simply recruiting onto specific courses.  In that respect one might argue that UAB and GMU are underperforming in the INTO portfolio so it will be interesting to see how their overall international numbers relate to the Open Doors figures for the sector next week.        

The Even Bigger Picture

There is no doubt that around the world there has been a resurgence in global student mobility.  Recent OECD reports indicate that “international student flows reached a record high in 2022” with just under six million students abroad in higher education. There is growing confidence in the continuation of this trend with Holoniq predicting 8 million students “enrolled with foreign institutions”, possibly even 9 million, by 2030.  Eight million students studying overseas has long been a part of the higher education sector’s holy grail and the origins of this were analysed in a blog as far back as February 2018.

Notwithstanding this, INTO’s increased profile raising and willingness to engage with direct recruitment partners might suggest that we are, again, in a period when there is a search for new investment.  With Navitas active in buying parts of Study Group’s business in May and other signs of merger and acquisition activity picking up this might be a good moment to promote interest in an international recruitment business with momentum.  It might be wishing too much, however, to hope that investors are as swayed by short-term bounces or long-term “predictions” as they were in the early 2010’s. 

Investment Dealers Digest was, apparently, the first non-skiing print publication to use the metaphor of investment bankers who had “been out over their skis a little bit” on a deal.  In this context, interested parties might note that Holoniq’s predictions are tempered with a range from 6 million to 9 million and that we are already seeing the difficulties faced by many countries in managing the scale of the influx of international higher education students.  Also worth considering is the continuing sophistication of technology in delivering education, the spectre of nationalistic governments managing their borders more closely and the propensity of global systems to succumb to climate, pandemic and economic shocks. 

NOTES

As always the analysis is a genuine attempt to reflect publicly available statistics. Authoritative comment or correction of any errors or misunderstandings in the data interpretation are welcome and will be acknowledged.

The blog title reflects the elusiveness of data that is only expressed in percentages. In the song Remember the Name by hip-hop ensemble Fort Minor the lyrics say, “This is ten percent luck, twenty percent skill fifteen percent concentrated power of will. Five percent pleasure, fifty percent pain And a hundred percent reason to remember the name.” It might be a good description of the work of an international recruiter trying to promote their university!

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Knocking on Open Doors

Each year the Open Doors announcement of US international enrollment numbers is given a big build up but only serves as a reminder that the higher education sector’s approach to data release is antiquated.  A delay of a year in publishing student numbers might have been acceptable in the days of quill pens1, abacuses2, parchment3 and pigeon post4 but it is difficult to accept it in the early 21st century.  So, on November 13, 2023, Open Doors will give us something that any marketer, recruiter or strategist will find as satisfying as a warmed up meal – congealed, lukewarm and not nearly as appetizing as something freshly cooked.

The figures released will relate to the 2022 academic year and are not likely to tell decent international officers very much of interest.  That recruiting season is long in the past and the numbers will provide little insight for the 2024 cycle, the impact of a resurgent Australia, developing markets or the new competitive spirit around the globe.  What makes it doubly frustrating is that most universities already know their 2023 enrollment numbers and some make the data available. 

Looking at these institutions provides some guidance on what has happened this year and occasionally at a good level of detail.  It’s also a good place to see how earlier claims about application rates may or may not have been a decent guide to enrollment.  For some institutions there is even enough data to see how their pathway operations are doing.

Sunrise or False Dawn

INTO’s press release of May 2023 suggested a “Strong surge in international student demand across INTO partnerships in the United States”.  There was an average of 52% more applications for “pathway and INTO Center supported programs” and a 201% increase in applications for “directly entry” (sic).  The release came just one year after the University of South Florida took action that, it claims, terminated the joint-venture and just two months before the University of South Florida sought a declaratory judgement to enforce winding up of the partnership.5

Source: INTO University Partnerships, May 2023

It is reasonable to note that the figures were aggregated across all partners but it’s interesting to see how things played out in enrollment growth at an individual partner university.  George Mason University’s (GMU) recently available fall census figures show that the pathway college and joint-venture INTO Mason has seen a modest increase of 12 students year on year (up 9.2%) and is still 100 below the pre-pandemic 2019 intake.  2016 was the peak intake and there seems little chance of recovery to those highs.

At the university level, the total growth in enrolled “non-resident aliens” was 9.9% (389 students).  This was driven by postgraduate masters enrollment while undergraduate enrollment continued its decline from a high point in 2019 and remains below the 2016 level.  There seems little evidence of a resurgence in growth from China but universities still due to report may give us more detailed insights. 

Source: George Mason University Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Planning

INTO has recently announced a recruitment partnership with the University of Oklahoma (OU), Norman campus, and that institution may have been interested in the potential suggested by INTO’s stated growth in applications.  A glance at the enrollment data indicates that while international first-time freshmen numbers at OU have been relatively static since the pandemic the bounce in total international students has seen a 17.5% increase since the low in 2020.  Numbers for Fall 2023 are not yet available but it seems likely that OU would welcome direct recruitment growing closer to the GMU levels.      

Meanwhile Auburn University, a Shorelight partner, is also showing how difficult life can be for pathway programs.  The number of on campus, resident aliens enrolled in the four listed Auburn Global programs below continues to, at best, bump along the bottom. For ease and clarity the data shown is taken directly from the Auburn University website. 

 Source: Auburn University Office of Institutional Research

At a top level, however, the rise in non-resident alien graduate recruitment has pushed Auburn University back to pre-pandemic levels of enrollment. As with GMU the decline in undergraduate appears to have stabilized.

Source: Auburn University Office of Institutional Research

As noted in previous blogs Shorelight has made a significant pivot to direct recruitment and continues to add new partners while slimming down its pathway offerings.  This seems to be a reasonable direction of travel in the US. 

Paved With Good Intentions

The pathway model continues to have some strength in the UK and Australia markets.  In the UK this looks to have been propped up by “International Year One” activity that exploits the gap between the lowest level of English language capability for university study acceptable for visa purposes and the lowest level most universities are prepared to accept for direct admission.  A significant competitive threat (leaving the UK Home Office aside) is that some universities seem increasingly willing to reduce requirements and allow direct entry which may limit the scope for growth for pathway operators.

Over time the US higher education sector has tried the pathway model but appears to have found it wanting.  The response of pathway operators is to try and leverage their expensive global recruitment organizations and become carriers of multiple university brands for direct recruitment purposes.  Brand dilution and switch hitting of students between brands seem obvious potential concerns for institutions when considering such arrangements.

All the time there is also the tick-tock of governments looking at the damage to national reputations from largely unregulated and increasingly discredited recruitment practices involving agents.  It is not that agents are necessarily unscrupulous but that technology has enabled a flood of new entrants which has destabilized a model where universities had at least a passing understanding of who was using their brand to recruit.  Technology and the aggregator model have probably exacerbated the problem to the detriment of many, including the visa system in Canada and the ability of university admissions teams around the world to keep up with the volume.

It’s a complex time which is another reason that we could do with near contemporaneous release of data from the sector both to optimise recruitment efforts and to allay any unjustified responses from legislators.

NOTES

As always, the data shown is a genuine attempt to interpret and represent information available on university websites. The source is shown for reference. In the event that my interpretation or understanding of the data is incorrect I am happy to receive authoritative clarifications for publication.

  1. Quills were the primary writing instrument in the western world from the 6th to the 19th century.
  2. The word abacus dates to at least AD 1387 when a Middle English work borrowed the word from Latin that described a sandboard abacus.  The Sumerian abacus appeared between 2700 and 2300 BC.    
  3. Parchment is a writing material made from specially prepared animal skins.  The word is derived from the Koinē Greek city name, Pergamum in Anatolia, where parchment was supposedly first developed around the second century BCE
  4. In the 5th century BC the first network of pigeon messengers is thought to have been established in Assyria and Persia by Cyrus the Great.  The Romans used pigeon messengers to aid their military over 2000 years ago.
  5. The case is complex and this sentence summarises the situation. For further reading see The Complaint for Declaratory Judgement which is Filing # 153460265 E-Filed 07/15/2022 07:45:26 PM in the Circuit Court of the Thirteenth Judicial Circuit in and for the state of Florida Civil Division. I have written a number of blogs on this ongoing issue.

Image by Dennis Larsen from Pixabay

Oh, What A Beautiful Morning

The sun rises on a new week and there’s a fresh batch of news from INTO University Partnerships including overdue accounts being filed, a direct recruitment partner announced and what looks like a departure at Executive Team level.

Territory folks should stick together2

The INTO University of East Anglia LLP Annual Report for the year ended July 2022 arrived with Companies House about a month overdue.  At first glance there seems little reason for the delay and the average student numbers were only slightly down on the year before.  A little deeper digging shows a breaching of “certain covenants” on the CLBILS loan and a number of restatements of prior year financials.

The restatements have taken the prior year (to July 2021) Operating Loss down from £4.6m to £1.8m with the bulk of the difference being a reduction in Administration Expenses of £2.6m.  The notes indicate that this reflected a decision “..that amounts payable to members for contractual services such as marketing should be included within Members’ remuneration charged as an expense..”.  A similar change was made in restatements of 2021 at INTO Newcastle and INTO Stirling but not, as far as I can see, at INTO City, INTO Queen’s or INTO Exeter. 

The COVID-related CLBILS loan is for £7m with HSBC and requires payment of £1m in November 2023 and the final balance to be paid by December 2023.  The Annual Report notes that this is “within the cash flow projections”, with both partners signing a letter of support to enable the LLP to continue to fund its liabilities as they fall due.   The University of East Anglia, which has had its own financial troubles in recent years, has not posted any Council minutes thus far in the 2022/23 academic year so it’s difficult to know if there are any further insights to be gained from its governing body.

This all means that INTO UEA ended up right in the middle of the pack for 2021/22 recruitment at INTO’s UK Centers but still at around half of its pre-pandemic enrollments.  There’s quite a lot riding on the Autumn 2023 intake with another mouth to feed at the newly formed INTO Lancaster Limited.  Just as a small rider on that point it seems as if this entity has been incorporated as a wholly owned INTO entity so it remains to be seen if it another co-owned joint venture.    

Where the wind comes sweepin’ down the plain3

Back in the USA, INTO has just announced a new partnership for direct recruitment with the University of Oklahoma.  This is the second agreement in the US in 2023 following the partnership with Montclair State University announced in July.  Before that, the most recent partnership was with University of Massachusetts Amherst to recruit to 17 master’s degrees, back in September 2022.

Perhaps the May 2023 publication of claims that there was 52% growth in applications for INTO Center-supported programs and 201% growth in direct entry applications has stimulated interest.  Whether this has translated into equal or similar growth in enrollment should become clearer as partner universities publish their data for Fall 2023. In competition terms, the three additional partners are a limited response to Shorelight’s growing higher education smorgasbord of 65 universities offering undergraduate courses and 39 offering masters courses (excluding American Collegiate and non-US campuses).

The court case between INTO and the University of South Florida continues to move along.  Factors include a Hearing on 10 October 2023, to consider “University of South Florida’s Motion to Dismiss INTO University Partnerships Limited’s Supplemental Pleading”4, INTO’s voluntary dismissal of “..Counts XI and XIV of the Supplemental Pleading to the Second Amended Complaint”5, and an appeal by INTO to the Second District Court of Appeal.6

INTO appears to have refreshed its legal team for the Appeal with three lawyers from Susman Godfrey joining INTO’s roster as “foreign”7 attorneys.  Perhaps it is indicative of the stakes, as Susman Godfrey has been named Vault’s #1 litigation boutique in America every year since the award’s inception in 2011.  All of those developments come ahead of a mediation event led by Joseph H. Varner, III, scheduled for 29 September8.

Many a new day9

All this is happening as the INTO Executive Team continues to slim down.  Chief Product Officer Namrata Sarmah who joined in January 2022 is the latest face to disappear from the company’s website leaving a team of seven heading up the organization.  Other developments at INTO have been reported in recent blogs and it does look as if the company is tightening belts and battening down hatches while continuing to invest in University Access Centres and await developments, including Manchester Metropolitan University’s tender for an embedded international student centre.

NOTES

Impossible to resist an Oklahoma theme to the sub-headings.  The “Sooner State” boasts the American Bison as its state animal and the Oklahoma Rose as its flower but the words all belong to songs from the first Rodgers and Hammerstein musical Oklahoma! which premiered in 1943.

  1. Oh, What A Beautiful Mornin’ is the first song after the overture
  2. “Territory folks should stick together” is a line from Farmer and the Cowman
  3. “When the wind comes sweeping down the plain” is taken from the title song, Oklahoma.  For reasons I cannot explain the musical has an exclamation mark and the title song does not!  In 1953 the state legislature chose it as the state song.
  4. Filing # 181397864 E-Filed 09/08/2023 12:06:23 PM
  5. Filing # 180352287 E-Filed 08/23/2023 02:46:41 PM
  6. Filing # 179426524 E-Filed 08/11/2023 08:31:57 AM
  7. Florida Supreme Court RULE 2.510.FOREIGN ATTORNEYS (a) Eligibility. Upon filing a verified motion with the court, an attorney who is an active member in good standing of the bar of another state and currently eligible to practice law in a state other than Florida may be permitted to appear in particular cases in a Florida court upon such conditions as the court may deem appropriate, provided that a member of The Florida Bar in good standing is associated as an attorney of record.
  8. Filing # 179194479 E-Filed 08/08/2023 03:23:11 PM
  9. Many A New Day is a song title from the musical.  Some describe it as an anthem of female indepence.

Image by Tom from Pixabay

Rulings, Filings and Finances

There have probably been better fortnights for INTO University Partnerships (INTO) than the last two of July 2023.  Losing a decision in the court case against the University of South Florida (USF) and missing financial filing deadlines for both INTO University of East Anglia and the parent company are not calculated to bolster confidence or impress existing and potential partners.  Rumours of another round of redundancies and outsourcing also reflect the challenges facing the business.

Truth and Wisdom

Following a hearing on 27 June, Circuit Judge Darren D. Farfante has dismissed Count V of the Second Amended Complaint filed by INTO against Defendants Jennifer Condon, Karen Holbrook, Nic Trivunovich, and Ralph Wilcox.2  In simple terms, the judgement noted that “…sovereign immunity bars Count V of the Second Amended Complaint against the FC Directors as pled.”  The Plaintiffs, INTO USF, Inc., INTO USF LP, and INTO University Partnership Limited, “…subsequently advised the Court that they will not amend and dismissal of Count V of the Second Amended Complaint should be entered for purposes of appeal.”

While the plaintiffs could choose to re-engage on this point if the case ever goes to appeal the position is that after months of assertions that the USF Joint Venture Directors had “breached their fiduciary duties”,3 that particular strand of the matter is closed.  It is difficult to believe that the legal pursuit of individuals hasn’t left some scars on both sides and it may have put the issue of personal liability into the minds of university joint venture board directors elsewhere.  Rulings in one state may not be directly applicable to another but they may offer a sense of how closing a similar joint venture could play out elsewhere. 

Hard on the heels of the judgement USF moved to “..dismiss IUP’s Supplemental Pleading4 with prejudice.”5  This appeared to be substantially on the grounds that Sovereign Immunity also “..Bars Counts X, XI, XII, XIII and XIV”.  The filing also states that that “…opposing counsel (i.e. INTO’s counsel) has not requested that the undersigned stipulate to the filing of a second amended complaint” which seems to suggest the judge will now determine the outcome on these Counts.    

It may be that forthcoming discussions will lead towards a settlement of some sort with notification that a Mediation Conference has been scheduled for 29 September, 20236.  One might think that both organizations would be glad to see an end to such a public dispute.  As always, the author of this blog does not claim any legal expertise and advises readers to seek detailed information to form their own opinions9. 

History Man to Remains of the Day

The decline of INTO’s first joint venture at the University of East Anglia (UEA) is a saddening tale for anybody involved in the successful early days of the initiative.  The rhetoric was largely about the game-changing nature of long-term public-private partnerships but for those involved in the reality of international recruitment the immediate opportunity for increasing enrolments was clear.  INTO has removed the UEA case study from its corporate pages but the early days were genuinely transformational.

While the crisis at the University and the departure of its Vice-Chancellor has broader causes the situation has been exacerbated by a significant decline in the enrolment and financial fortunes of the joint venture.  The late filing, for the second year in a row, of the joint venture’s financial statement due on 31 July, 2023, means it is not possible to know whether enrolments fell even further in 2021/22 but the direction of travel has been downwards since 2015.  It is also likely that this has contributed to UEA’s declining revenue from international students.

It seems reasonable to believe that the late filing may be due to broader discussions about the future of the joint venture relationship.  New vice-chancellor, Prof David Maguire, is on record as saying that the immediate future is about “survival of the fittest” and it is difficult to see a compelling case for preserving the joint venture while cutting back on schools of study that have formed the institution’s history and sense of self.  At a time when reports say 400 positions – equivalent to 10 per cent of the workforce – have already been lost at UEA through redundancies, severance and resignations, the extent to which the university should continue to help prop up a loss-making commercial venture must be in question.

There may be an alternative argument that the joint venture brings opportunities for direct recruitment to help UEA out of its current problems.  Whether to stick or twist and whether it is wiser to be the history man6 or look with confidence towards the remains of the day7 is a very real choice.  Given the length of the joint venture contract originally signed and what appears to be a lack of performance it will be interesting to see if UEA would consider the USF route to resolution.

Patet omnibus veritas8

INTO’s financial accounts to July 2022 noted that its cash position during the year had declined from £20.5m to £9.4m year on year and that it had “revised EBITDA covenants agreed with its bankers to February 2024”.  It’s difficult to know what is going on under the surface but rumours of further cutbacks are circulating and it seems plausible that there is a squeeze to cut costs early in the financial year that began on 1 August 2023.  The urgency may be sharpened by developing views on enrolment numbers because, as with many education businesses, a significant portion of revenue will be baked in quite early in the year.

A previous blog suggested some of the issues that the incoming CEO, in February 2023, might want to consider.  The Executive Team has already been slimmed down a reduction in higher salaries is to be expected when the 2022/23 results are published.  On the other hand, expenditure on opening University Access Centres seems to be continuing, there is a new partnership to launch at Lancaster University, the recovery of pathway operations in the US looks patchy and there is the spectre of more stringent visa controls in the UK ahead of 2024 recruitment.

In the US, the recent addition of a recruitment only deal with Montclair State University makes little headway in the struggle to recover and compete after several years of joint-venture closures and the acceleration of direct recruitment partnerships by main competitor Shorelight.  In the UK, the partnership with Lancaster University brings a high tariff institution to the party but Study Group didn’t seem able to keep Lancaster happy so the pressure to perform is certain to be on. There does not seem to be any news of further progress in Australia. 

INTO must also be waiting with bated breath on the outcome of the Manchester Metropolitan University International Study Centre tender.  There is rarely a dull moment, which may be why they have been a bit too busy to file their Confirmation Statement to Companies House.  Or it could be that there is even bigger news to come.

NOTES

  1. Truth and Wisdom is the motto of the University of South Florida
  2. Final Order: 07/24/2023 02:59:36 PM Electronically Filed
  3. Filing # 167652717 E-Filed 02/27/2023 07:53:06 PM (point 137 and others)
  4. Filing # 175778804 E-Filed 06/21/2023 09:45:06 AM
  5. Filing # 178214351 E-Filed 07/25/2023 05:09:59 PM
  6. Filing # 179194479 E-Filed 08/08/2023 03:23:11 PM
  7. A small homage to Malcolm Bradbury, author of The History Man (1975), one of the most evocative novels about university campus life of the era, who became Professor of American Studies at the University of East Anglia in 1970 and launched the MA in Creative Writing course.  The course has been attended by several eminent authors including Kazuo Ishiguro who won the Booker Prize in 1989 for his book Remains of the Day and went on to be awarded the 2017 Nobel Prize for Literature.  My best wishes to all colleagues and friends still working hard to make UEA a success again.
  8. “Patet omnibus veritas” is the Latin version of Lancaster University’s motto.  It translates to Truth Lies Open to All.
  9. The background to the court case between INTO University Partnerships and the University of South Florida has been outline in several previous blogs. As before the terms INTO and University of South Florida are used as short forms for the range of corporate plaintiffs and defendants. Full details and all public documents reference in this blog can be found through https://hover.hillsclerk.com/html/case/caseSearch.html the Hillsborough County Clerk of Courts search facility. Insert 22 for the year, CA-Circuit Civil for the Court type and 006001 for the case number.

FROM FUTILITY TO UTILITY

Collins Dictionary tells us that, “If you say that something is futile, you mean there is no point in doing it, usually because it has no chance of succeeding.”  It is difficult to think of a better description of a student scanning the Times Higher Education or QS World Rankings or any of the multiplicity of other rankings that have proliferated from those organizations.  They don’t really tell students anything useful about whether the institution is right for them as an individual or whether it will allow them to fulfil their life and career ambitions.

All the evidence suggests that the primary motivator for going to higher education is to enhance job prospects. Chegg’s survey across 21 countries, INTO’s research with agents and Gallup surveys are among indicators that for both home and international students a degree is largely a means to an end. That is not to say that people don’t want to study something they enjoy – just that the degree is the aim.

Most existing rankings are, however, just an attempt to monetize industry data for commercial ends and the sector collaborates, possibly because it’s the way things have always been done.  The rankings, as someone said, “Xerox privilege” by reaffirming existing hierarchies and usually allow institutions to manipulate their data, sometimes beyond the point of criminality.  For the institutions they are vanity projects which lead to dubious internal resource allocation, avoid hard questions about graduate employability and distort the decision making of Governments, funders and students.

Utility, on the other hand, is “the quality or property of being useful” and we may be beginning to see the glimmer of some media developing data to be genuinely useful to students.  It is a timely and smart move because we are nearly at the point where AI will give students the opportunity to have near total, instant and absolutely personalized university search capability at their fingertips.  That should send a shudder through ranking organizations that are wedded to a business model and presentation based on early 2000s thinking.

Money magazine’s Best Colleges 2023 may point the way.  It still has a vapid “star” system to allow colleges to be ranked but the database begins to say some useful, student oriented, things about Acceptance Rate, tuition fee (both headline price but more importantly average actual price) and graduation rate.  Imagine if that database approach married itself, in the US, to the work of a company like College Viability, LLC which gives an insight into reasons which a college “…may not be financially viable for the time required to earn a degree from that college.”  Then, add to the mix comprehensive information on the graduate outcomes and career payback from specific degrees – the Princeton Review Best Value Colleges gives a flavour but still ends up as a ranking with limited coverage.

In the UK, the growth of private universities and the significant difference in tuition fees at graduate level between public universities makes the approach equally appropriate.  Such a database would begin to answer the most pressing of student needs – will I get in and with what grades, am I likely to graduate, and what are my career and earning prospects thereafter?  There could be plenty of further nuance added, including grades required, accommodation, measures of student experience and so on.

All of this could be done without the need for a grading system.  The problem with rankings is that the company doing the ranking sets an arbitrary test which institutions do their best to pass with a high grade.  This entirely excludes the student from having any input into the criteria but the results are then presented as an aspirational or emotional nirvana for them to consider.

A smart organization would be ensuring that their data collection is driven by the real world needs and concerns of students. It’s time to remove the worthies who make up the Advisory Groups and Panels for the major ranking organizations and find ways of engaging directly with potential students. The outcome would be relevant, dynamic and have utility for millions around the globe.

It would also be a driver for universities to engage more effectively with the issue of graduate employment both through on-campus services and establishing strong data on careers and jobs. Colleagues including Louise Nicol of Asia Careers Group and Shane Dillon of CTurtle have been demonstrating for years that smart use of technology even makes it possible to leave antiquated, email driven surveys of graduates behind in collecting the data. The answers might even begin to convince Governments around the world that universities are engaging effectively and adding value to economic growth and sustainability.

McKinsey and many others have written about personalization of the customer experience in retail with much of the impetus being given by technology.  The insurance world has seen the rise and rise of aggregators and there is talk of the “personalized insurance engine” that gives a fully automated customer journey.  Potential students are hungry for better decision making option and education needs to catch up fast with the opportunities that exist.

Image by Steve Buissinne from Pixabay