Tag: international students

Another Canadian University Pathway Coming Soon?

Pathway operators have been focused on getting contracts with universities in Canada for several years but there has been little real momentum.  All the more interesting to catch rumours of Navitas nearing a breakthrough with Ryerson University.  It’s worth having a look at whether there’s any strength to them.

Exhibit one would be the university’s Senate Meeting Agenda of 1 October 2019.  Pages 78 to 83 have a summary of meetings ‘from the President’s Calendar’ and there, hiding in plain sight on page 82, is the entry:

Jul 29, 2019: Over dinner, I met with Rod Jones, group CEO for Navitas worldwide; Scott Jones, nonexecutive chair of the board for Navitas worldwide; and Brian Stevenson, president and CEO, university partnerships, Navitas North America. We discussed the potential for Ryerson to bring in international students through the pathways to university education that Navitas offers.

The information had previously been shared at the Board of Governors meeting on September 20, 2019.  So we know that Ryerson’s President Mohamed Lachemi has been meeting with senior people from Navitas although that might not be considered unusual.  But there’s a little bit more to report.

Recent social media shows President Lachemi escaping the Canadian winter in the past couple of weeks and ‘expanding Ryerson’s relationships with leading universities’ in Australia.  This might be unexceptional but the twittersphere also suggests visits to Griffith College and Deakin College – two Navitas centers – arranged by Navitas.  And it sounds like there have been more meetings with senior Navitas folk.

There’s no way of confirming the market gossip and I am always happy to clarify the situation if an authoritative source gets in touch. Ryerson has certainly been in conversation with at least one external operator in the past but given the rise of Canada as an international student recruitment magnet it’s questionable what benefits such a relationship brings.  Some commentators might argue they could organize themselves to take advantage of the momentum behind enrollments.

Once clue might be that Ryerson looks to have been left lagging despite the surge in interest for the country with the world’s longest bi-national land border.  There are thirty Canadian universities listed in the THE 2020 World Ranking top 1000 and the percentage of international students at Ryerson is the lowest of all.  At 4% it is well behind other, admittedly higher ranked, Toronto institutions like the University of Toronto (21%) and York University (24%).

Ryerson’s global ranking in the THE ranking 601-800 bracket places it behind the other Navitas partners in Canada.  The University of Manitoba is ranked in the 351-400 bracket and has 17% international students and Simon Fraser University is in the 251-300 bracket with 30% international students.  This might suggest that there is plenty of scope for Ryerson to grow with the right sort of support.

It would be the third public research university to partner with Navitas and would give the portfolio added depth.  The only other pathway provider with representation in Canada is Study Group who have one public research university in Royal Roads and two sub-degree colleges in Stenberg and the Center for Arts and Technology. 

With US enrollments still struggling and the maturity of the UK and Australian pathway markets it’s easy to see why there is interest in Canada.  Interest remains strong amongst students and agents with little sign of applications slowing.  But everyone with a history in international recruitment knows that past performance is no guarantee of future success.

The international student boom in Canada has come with some issues that are increasingly grabbing the headlines.  There are allegations of students being ‘duped by unscrupulous agents’, scarcity of part-time work and up to 39% of study visa applications being rejected.  It’s difficult to believe that interest will slump quickly or precipitously but it may be time for wise heads to consider what a sustainable rate of growth might look like.

Image by David Peterson from Pixabay

Changing Fortunes and Futures Across Major Recruiting Countries

Another extraordinary year in higher education around the globe and a good moment to review some of the highlights and possible future directions of the main four recruiting countries.  There’s plenty to consider as the established recruiting heavyweights fight off emerging challenges, the shake-up of pathways continues, and India’s rise as a market becomes an obsession for recruiters.       

USA

A year of reckoning for pathways with four closures each by Study Group and CEG while EC Higher Education exited the market totally.  All of which reminded us of the chill wind blowing through international student enrollments in the US.  It added to the uncertainty around a sector which is seeing changing demographics and growing competition lead to longstanding institutions closing. 

IIE reported overall international student enrollments for 2018/19 down 2.1% on the year before and 3.4% down on the peak of 2016/17, with the number of new undergraduates falling for a third year in a row (down 10.4% over three years).  For the press release to claim,  “we are happy to see the continued growth in the number of international students in the United States”, seems either complacent or misguided.  It’s fair to say that the quote reflects the inclusion of OPT (a form of post-study work) numbers in the overall count but even when they are included growth was a measly 0.05% which hardly seems a basis for contentment. 

A microcosm of the problem and its impact on pathways was highlighted by student newspaper The University Daily Kansan which showed the University of Kansas and Shorelight partnership falling short of expectations.  It indicates that in 2014 Shorelight intended to double the number of international students at the University.  But between 2014 and 2018  the number enrolled fell from 2,283 international students to 2031 – an 11% decrease.  

 Shorelight parted company with their Chief Commercial Officer, Sean Grant, in October after just over a year in post.  At INTO University Partnerships, Cagri Bagcioglu, Senior VP Partners North America, left after 16 months and has turned up at Cintana Education.  Reports of job losses at Navitas were in the news and Study Group have yet to announce the replacement of their North American MD.

Looking forward there seems to be little likelihood of the news improving any time soon.  Changes to post-study work in the UK may further undermine recruitment from India and there is already good evidence that some Chinese students are putting the UK ahead of the US.  It will be worth watching to see whether INTO, buoyed by bumper recruitment in the UK, will invest heavily to make life even tougher for the US-centric Shorelight.

UK

The world of international student recruitment in the UK changed in September 2019 with the announcement that a two-year post-study work visa was being introduced for students from the 2020/21 academic year.  Foundation courses are already doing huge business for January 2020 entrants looking to go on to the full university degree later in the year.  The British Council is predicting growth of ‘just under 20%’ across the sector in the year ahead.

The announcement lifted the gloom that had been felt since post-study work was ended in 2012.  While many big brand names have done well in the intervening years, the new Government policy opens the door for more universities to maximize their intakes.  The news built on statistic showing that the UK had already seen a 63% year on year increase in Tier 4 visas granted for Indian students in the year to September 2019.

It was a good year overall for pathway providers with Study Group picking up Aberdeen and Cardiff while Navitas secured Leicester.  Given the renewed recruitment opportunity, it’s ironic that INTO’s pathway with Gloucestershire was closed during the summer period.  With growth guaranteed for a couple of years the year ahead may be the right moment for some of the smaller players to get a good price for their pathway activity from one of the big players.

The coming year is also likely to see interest focusing back on the implications of Brexit with the probability of the Government inserting a clause to ban any delay beyond December 2020.  Plenty of reason for universities to be nervous about enrollment from Europe if students are obliged to pay international fees when the deal is done.  And there may be a resurgence of interest in new, European based campuses to try to ameliorate the problem.

Australia

The battle for the Ashes has nothing on the intensity of competition for international students, and it took Australia less than a month to respond to the UK’s post-study work change.  They decided that Perth and the Gold Coast would be classified as regional which gives international graduates an  additional year of post-study work rights.  The federal government added that student in regional centres and other areas would have access to up to six years of PSW.

All this on top of an Australian enrollment juggernaut that has seen double-digit growth in international higher education students for each of the past four years.  Enrollments year on year to October 2019 were c45,000 up at 434,756.  Despite arguments about lack of diversity their percentage of Chinese students is 28% compared to the US at 34% (including OPT) and the UK at 33% (of international fee paying).

There could be plenty more gas in the tank which may have been the reason Rod Jones and his colleagues took Navitas into private ownership with BGH.  It would also explain new kids on the block (or old kids who’ve been round the block) Camino Global Education, founded by John Wood, former CEO of university partnerships at Navitas, and Peter Larsen, who co-founded Navitas (then known as IBT) with Rod Jones in 1994.

Australia has led the way in developing transparency on student recruitment agencies, and its Government recognizes the value of the higher education sector to the economy.  One would guess that the potential of trans-national education is well within their sights as they embed their network in the vibrant Asian economies.  For the casual observer they also provide the best, most up-to-date and detailed data on international student enrollment and that’s a model most other could do with replicating.

Canada

‘O Canada…with glowing hearts we see thee rise, the True North strong and free’.  Those words from the national anthem must be how the country’s higher education sector and national Government feel about international student recruitment.  But it’s far from over because the federal government recently pledged nearly $30-million a year over the next five years to diversify global recruiting efforts in the postsecondary sector.

Remarkable to believe that just five years ago a headline of ‘When it comes to foreign students, Canada earns ‘F’ for recruitment’ accompanied the release of a report by the Council of Chief Executives and the Canadian International Council.   It provoked action and the launch of the EduCanada brand in 2016, which drove the number of international students in college or university from about 120,00 to 260,000 from 2015 to 2018.

Canada is also unusual in having more students from India than from China.  In December 2018 India surpassed China as Canada’s top source of foreign students, across all sectors, with more than 172,000 study permit holders. Each country represents slightly more than a quarter of the total of 570,000.

It’s no secret that every pathway operator has been trying to access the Canadian higher education sector for years.  The reality is that the sector had organized itself and was making progress while most of the attention was on the US.  There seems little need for outside help as they launch their  International Education Strategy 2019-2024.

Anyone who has worked in the international recruitment field knows that bets on long-term success are likely to lead to embarrassment. It’s less than a decade since Australia’s years in the doldrums, this article notes Canada’s ‘F for failure’ and just three months ago the UK wasn’t competing on post-study work options. It’s also only ten years ago that the lure of the US market was driving extraordinary valuations of pathway companies.

But it seems pretty reasonable to say that when the enrollment numbers for 2019/20 and 2020/21 are in there will be smiles in Canada, Australia and the UK. For the US the road to growth is unclear and may be several years in the building. And there remains the possibility that higher education in Asia will reach a tipping point to upset the old order even more fundamentally. Happy holidays.

Photo by Element5 Digital from Pexels

UK’s International Graduate Employability ‘Promise’ – Next Steps

It should be possible to wholeheartedly welcome UUKi’s Conference ‘International graduate employability: Making good on the promise’ because it is an important topic.  But I doubt we will see 90% of the time devoted to employability for students leaving the UK after study, although that’s the percentage that will probably look for jobs in their home country.  Neither is the Conference likely to have the necessary quality of data about graduate outcomes and views despite the investment made in UUKi’s International Graduate Outcomes 2019 publication. 

Even more discouragingly, the publicity for the event majors on the point that ‘we have the post study work visa we have argued for for so long’.  This encourages those who want to focus on short-term enrollment growth by maximising the post-study work windfall rather than serving the broader international graduate community.  A more balanced view would reflect that providing careers services, alumni relations and employer networks suited to international students returning home will be a key point of strategic differentiation in the long term.       

In addition to getting the balance of time in the Conference right it would be good to see discussion and commitments on how to make progress in four key areas: 

Make Sure Data Reflects Reality

Several assertions in the International Graduate Outcomes 2019 report are heavily caveated and require detailed explanation in a footnote or the annexes.  The most egregious is the claim that “The balance of respondents to the i-GO survey by nationality was broadly similar to that of international students studying in the UK.” (page 17).  With only 6% of the total respondents from China this is nonsense and, as a footnote confirms, “in the year 17-18, Chinese students made up 33% of the total non-EU student population…”.                

Assertions on comparative salaries (page 49) for UK graduates working in other countries are problematic and confusing.  For the diligent reader these anomalies are explained away but the headline claims seem to be a naïve overstatement of the benefits based on data that is not comparable and in some cases is very limited.  If this begins to work its way into university marketing materials we are likely to see the Advertising Standards Authority called into action again to correct misleading claims. 

Other sources and methodologies, which have more substantial samples and better reflect the nationality mix of UK-enrolled international students, are available.  They also offer the potential to compare performance across competitor countries and give substance to claims about the pay premium that returning students can expect.  Individual universities are already buying these services  but the competitive future of UK HE seems worth a sector-wide approach.         

Get Serious About Careers Service and Advice

In the foreword to UUKi’s report Chris Skidmore Minister of State of Universities, Science, Research and Innovation comments, “Together we can build on this research to help ensure that international students who graduate from the UK’s world leading universities are in the best possible position to go on to further employment be it in the UK, or their home nation”.  The latter will be difficult if not impossible if there is no concerted effort to build relevant support and services for international students.

The report highlights that only 2% of international students found jobs through their University Careers Service.  It is arguable that few of those Services are equipped technically, with funding or with genuine insights, to help international students engage with employers in their home countries.  Whatever the reason, it is a dismal outcome and an indictment of the services international students receive for their fees.

Pay More Attention to International Alumni Relationships

Details on response rates are not wholly clarified but the Report stated it was, “… less than 1% of total international graduates from UK higher education institutions” during the sample period.  It seems plausible that those who did respond are outliers in the alumni community who feel particular affinity or allegiance to their institution and/or the UK.  If so, it is dangerous to assume that high levels of approval and support for the educational experience are commonplace. 

Most service organisations are more interested in finding out about customers who are dissatisfied so that they can improve their offering.  Lack of engagement means that institutions may be getting highly selective feedback and missing information that could help them build more effective curricula and better support.  Even if the responses are representative and the low rate just the result of inertia, it means universities are missing opportunities to develop networks of graduates around the world who may be supportive of future students seeking employment.

Target Connections with Employers Through Better Data, Insight and Graduate Support

HEIs should know the destinations of international graduates and develop targeting to match graduates with relevant skills to employers who need them.  The importance of this is apparent in markets such as Malaysia where students ranked nine Asia-Pacific regional companies as the most desirable employers  in their top ten for business and commerce according to Universum 2017.  In terms of graduate employability many Asia-Pacific based corporations would also benefit from universities providing better information about courses and the strengths of their students.

There are major opportunities for universities that are able to fit together the jigsaw of graduates and employers.  Better employment prospects and evidence of thriving careers is a siren call for both potential students and major organisations who are seeing job-prepared employees from favoured institutions.  The best way to achieve that level of synchronicity is through data that is individualized to each university delivered with insights about regional economies. 

A Strategic Advantage and Virtuous Circle

I would like to give three cheers to the UUKi for staging a Conference on an important issue and their effort to develop a worthwhile piece of evidence that underscores the UK’s position as a high-quality study destination that delivers enhanced career and life prospects.  For now, I can only manage one-and-a-half because the Report errs on the side of marketing at the expense of more hard-edged insights, and the Conference may simply reinforce short-term, narrow thinking about finding jobs for students who stay in the UK. 

More positively, both are good starting points which, with imagination, conviction and investment, could become the basis for a genuine strategic advantage.  This would mean investment in demonstrating through data and insights that the UK produces a global network of alumni with thriving careers.  With graduates choosing to work overseas getting appropriate support as they start their working lives, businesses around the world would better understand the value of a UK higher education, and international students would choose the UK knowing it gives them an employment advantage. It’s a virtuous circle worth considering.

    Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay 

More US Pathway Cutbacks

Keeping pace of the developing pathway scene among the private providers in the US requires constant attention.  Study Group has taken action within its US portfolio and no longer recruits for four brands featured on the company’s website a few months ago.  After this year’s closure of CEG’s US centers and EC Higher Education’s withdrawal from the market it’s further evidence of the pressure on international student recruitment.

The closed Study Group pathways are Roosevelt, Widener and Merrimack while West Virginia was a direct recruitment option.  The Merrimack relationship extended back over a decade, Widener and Roosevelt were opened in 2012/13.  West Virginia came online in January 2018 with recruitment commencing in fall 2018.

These changes leave Study Group with four regionally-ranked and seven nationally-ranked university partners according to USNWR 2020 listings. Among the nationally-ranked, two were taken over from EC while only three sit above 200: Baylor (79), Vermont (121) and DePaul (125).  Three of the four remaining regionally ranked universities, Oglethorpe, Western Washington and Lynn were signed in 2017, so there may be contractual impediments to early action.

US News Ranking 2020 of Study Group US Partnerships (closed institution in red)

The Study Group closures mean that, as far as I can track from public information, the company has launched 14 university partnerships in the US of which five have now been closed in the past two years.  Between CEG and Study Group more than 10% of US private-pathway provider centers have closed in the past two years.  These tended to be smaller operations in terms of student numbers, but it reflects the stress that the sector is under.       

As global competition grows, the potential for private pathway providers to recruit successfully to less prestigious and/or lower ranked institutions seems increasingly questionable and even bigger names have seen enrolments declining.  It is difficult to see that the increasing view of Admissions Directors from Masters/Baccalaureate institutions that pathways ‘will become more important’ is well founded.   Neither is it obvious that the billion dollar private equity fuelled dash to build pathway capacity in the US is going to pay off in the foreseeable future.

With UK international recruitment prospects resurgent under a new Post-Study Work regime, the growing quality of emerging options around the world and the continuing assertiveness of Canada, Australia and Germany, it’s probably time for a rethink.

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

PSW – The Morning After

There’s plenty of jubilation over the re-introduction of two-year Post-Study Work visas and congratulations are due to those who lobbied for it.  But it’s worth remembering that Government’s rarely give something without wanting something in return and that every gift horse should be given careful scrutiny.  In that context there are a few things to look out for over the coming weeks, months and years.

Drift, Detail and Design

A ‘popular’ announcement from a Government under pressure is often rushed out with detail and other policy intent still needing to be tidied up.  The Home Secretary’s announcement that the new Graduate Route ‘will mean talented international students, whether in science and maths or technology and engineering, can study in the UK…’ was curious in the context of a scheme allowing all graduates to stay.  It’s mirrored on the Home Office website and may provide cover for a later tightening of the rules to specific subjects.

A Step Forward But…

Some details of PSW are still to be announced but it seems slightly short of the Australian (two to four years) and Canadian (up to three years) schemes.  It is not yet clear if families can join the PSW graduate as in Australia and it seems doubtful that there will be any room for promoting it as a route to permanent residence as Canadian institutions do.  And there is always the potential for both those countries to step up their offer to become even more competitive.      

Economic Conditions Can Change Policy

PSW was last introduced in the UK in 2002 when unemployment was 5%.  It’s discontinuation in 2012 followed a rapid rise in unemployment to 8% between 2009 and 2011. Prime Minister David Cameron told the House of Commons, ‘Frankly, there are lots of people in our country desperate for jobs. We don’t need the brightest and best of students to come here and then do menial jobs.’

The economic direction of travel for the UK post-Brexit is uncertain but universities have been drawn very directly into discussions about employability and the value of a degree. It’s easy to allow PSW in an era of historically low unemployment, currently around 4%, but if recession hits and unemployment climbs it is equally simple to remove it.  Trends in numbers and careers of home graduates may factor in that equation.

Table 1 – UK Unemployment 2000-2013

Grounds for Home Student Fee Reduction

The HE sector made an enormous song and dance about the contribution of international student fees but may find being granted it has unintended consequences.  With increasing international students providing a major economic stimulus to universities there is fertile ground for populist and electioneering proposals to cut fees for home students and increase investment in school and FE.  It’s probably helpful that international students also prop up the economics of many STEM courses and postgraduate study.

Limiting HE Investment to Support Other Priorities

Universities may hope the Augar Review has been buried but newspaper headlines about ‘low value’ courses, universities manipulating applications, grade inflation and VC pay are unlikely to have been totally forgotten.  More importantly, more money from international students gives grounds to support more popular or political priorities.   It was interesting to see Chancellor Sajid ‘I went to my local FE College’ Javid, Spending Round announcement include an increase for further education funding in the 2019 spending round and increasing ‘school spending by £7.1 billion by 2022-23, compared to this year.’

International Fees For EU Students

One of the arguments against introducing international fees for EU students post-Brexit has been that it will cause a significant decline in their numbers.  A surge in traditional international fee-paying students attracted by PSW makes up those numbers and would allow EU students to work as PSW international students without a more complex arrangement with Europe.  Making EU students ineligible for UK student loans would also eliminate headlines like ‘Thousands of EU students fail to repay loans.’

Never Mind the Quality Feel the Width

It is arguable that strong brands perceived as high quality or with potent strategies for recruitment have not been particularly troubled by the lack of post study work visas.  Eight Russell Group universities each increased their first-year international student intakes by over 27% over the two years from 2015/16 to 2017/18.  Even beyond that Group there are clear winners who achieved significant growth including De Montfort (+78%) and the University of East London (+90.6%). 

For some universities these were grim years with five institutions each seeing their intake decline by over 300 students.   PSW is likely to see such institutions making up for lost time and revenue by driving international numbers up but the quality of the intake may suffer.  PSW as the driver for attracting less able international students to cash-strapped universities is not a particularly lofty ideal.

Competition for Places and Jobs

The potential for significant upturns in volumes of international students comes just as the upswing occurs in home student demographics with HEPI suggesting the need for up to 300,000 additional university places by 2030.  This sets the scene for potential conflict between home students and international students – particularly if home fees go down and institutions are looking towards the economics.  The OECD’s Education at A Glance 2019 noted, ‘there is a risk of squeezing out qualified national students from domestic tertiary educational institutions that differentiate tuition fees by student origin, as they may tend to give preference to international students who generate higher revenues through higher tuition fees”.

It’s suggested that in 2019 around 1,000 places were reserved for international students in Clearing and the economics may push institutions to favouring international students over home students just as home demand steps up.  It is only a short step to stories about debt-laden home graduates being unemployed because universities are enticing increasing amounts of international competition for early career jobs.  At that point the freedom of PSW may find itself subject to increasing scrutiny and Government intervention.

Conclusion

A benevolent PSW policy is to be welcomed where it builds on the reputation of the sector for quality and is part of a strategic approach to supporting higher education’s potential as a major contributor to global influence as well as the UK’s economic and cultural development.  It is also possible that the recent announcement was carefully planned and is the start of a period of unprecedented benevolence towards higher education in the UK.  But history and context suggest that things are rarely so simple.   


Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay   

Clear For Clearing

It’s a bit early to predict final international student (excluding European Union) recruitment outcomes from the UK undergraduate Clearing season but the first week often gives some direction.  There’s also some anecdotal feedback on how institutional and student strategies might be shaping up and what it means for the broader sector. There’s a long way to go with the season largely defined by the last date on which international students can get visas to study.  

Looking at international students who have been ‘placed’ there has been a slightly surprising decline in year on year (YOY) growth over the first week.  On A-Level day (Day 0) 6.7% (2,120) more students had been placed than in 2018 and the number holding an offer was up 5.6% at 16,860.  By Day 8 the placed YOY increase was only 5.2% at 1,900 although offer holders were up 9.5% at 12,120.   

  Table 1 – Year on Year Differences In Place Students

Source: UCAS

NB: Each bar reflects the difference on the year before i.e. bars for 2016 reflect the difference compared to the corresponding UCAS reporting days in 2015  

The deeper context is strong growth in international student application growth measured at 8% at the 30 June UCAS deadline with a particular surge in applicants from China.  There are suggestions that the growth in applicants has allowed institutions to be more selective which seems likely at a point where there is more demand than supply.  An alternative, or perhaps complementary, take is that students are also being choosier and taking the opportunity to shop around before accepting an offer.

Plenty Still To Play For

While conversion tends to slow very quickly after the first week of Clearing the pool of 12,120 offer holders suggest that there’s plenty to play for.   Trying to project numbers forward it may be reasonable to take last year’s outcome as a guide.  In 2018 the pool of those holding an offer on Day 8 was 11,070 and by Day 28 of clearing the total number placed had grown by 18.8% of that number. 

A similar result in 2019 would mean that Day 28 in 2019 would see 40,430 placed students which would be a growth of 5.5% YOY.  It’s a rough and ready calculation and at Day 8 there were still a record number of over 30,000 students free to be placed in Clearing.  Whichever way you cut it this looks like a good year for the sector.

Another factor is that the numbers published by UCAS only cover the main scheme applicants and do not reflect those who might have used a Record of Prior Application* (RPA) to bypass the system.  As I noted in a blog in December 2018 this route has been growing quite rapidly, with just over 6% of the total number of students using the RPA route in 2018 compared to 3.9% in 2014 and just 4.8% in 2017.  Further growth would bring even more upside in recruitment for universities.

A Good Year But Beware The Fog

There may be even better news for the sector because there is reasonable feedback from some pathway operators and sixth form colleges suggesting that they are having a bumper year.  One commentary has suggested that students unable to get direct entry into well-ranked universities of choice are choosing to take pathway courses at those universities.  Even more encouragingly the buoyancy seems widespread and there is likely to be welcome relief for some universities that have seen significant declines in international student volume in recent years.

The undergraduate numbers are the smaller part of the international recruitment picture but there is no reason to believe that postgraduate numbers are not doing at least as well and probably better.  All this before the likely reintroduction of a more powerful post-study work option and the removal of international students from immigration statistics.  It bodes well for the near-term future of the UK sector at a point when the US seems to be mired in difficulties that are unlikely to be corrected quickly.   

Against this background experienced international recruiters will remember Clausewitz’s dictum that, ‘the factors on which action..is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty’ – it’s the basis for the popular phrase ‘fog of war’.  Brexit continues to loom over the sector with no real clarity over long-term decisions on the fee status of European Union students.  Concerns must also remain over reliance on one dominant source country when the rise in UG applications was substantially driven by students from China.

*Record of Prior Acceptance – where an application is submitted to UCAS by a provider, when an unconditional firm has been offered and accepted by the applicant. These are not recorded in the daily Clearing analysis and will be reported after the cycle has closed.


Image by PublicDomainPictures from Pixabay y

More Pathway Recruitment Indicators

Detailed, consistent and up to date insights into pathway recruitment performance are often difficult to find.  Some US universities give good data at a granular level and I reported on some of these in a recent blog.  The completion of the reporting cycle for INTO’s Joint Ventures and wholly owned centres in the UK gives a comprehensive picture of their enrolments in the 2017/18 financial year.

For the ten entities – eight joint ventures and two wholly owned centres – that have been trading five years, total enrollments bounced back from the low point in 2016/17 but remain short of 2013/14 levels.  This suggests that it’s probably still pretty tough going for the UK pathway market.

Table 1 – Average Enrolments for INTO Centres 2013/14 to 2017/18

Source: Annual Reports

At a detailed level the drivers of growth were Newcastle and City which bounced back after several years of decline and Queen’s.  Long-term partners East Anglia seem to have bottomed out after three years of decline.  Neither Stirling or Gloucestershire, the most recent partners in this group, have got over the 200 student mark after five years.

Table 2 – INTO UK Centres Average Enrolments 2013/14 to 2017/18

Source: LLP Annual Reports

INTO centres split educational oversight between ISI and the Quality Assurance Agency with the former giving specific details on numbers enrolled and the latter being less prescriptive.  While the annual reports noted above are averages across the financial year (August to July) in question, the ISI education oversight into three centres gives deeper insight into the most recent autumn intakes.

The distinction between EFL and FE used in the ISI reports broadly distinguishes between students on English Language only or Academic courses.  Newcastle appears to have a significant number doing both. 

Table 3 – Student Population of three INTO centres – November 2018

Source: ISI Educational Oversight Reports

The other INTO Joint Venture is Newcastle University London which had an inaugural intake in 2015 and offers both pathway and degree courses.  At the time of launch the university indicated that ‘…..in collaboration with INTO, our London campus is expected to grow to 1,200 students’.  Three years in the average numbers for 2017/18 were 381.

Recent UK pathway activity from established providers has largely centred on adding well ranked partners with Study Group, Navitas and Kaplan gaining Aberdeen, Leicester and Essex respectively.  Newer players have generally picked up less well-known names with Oxford International adding Greenwich and QA HE with Southampton Solent.  With the UK Government launching its new strategy for international student recruitment it remains to be seen if the cake will grow for everyone or if the strong will dominate.

NOTE: Table 2 updated 16 June 2019 to include INTO Glasgow Caledonian University 2017/18 enrolment   

UNIVERSITY PATHWAYS – INTO THE VALLEY

The potential sale of INTO University Partnerships has created a lot of interest with a particular focus on the Joint Venture (JV) model it pioneered and how they are performing.    A sharp-eyed and smart ex-colleague pointed me to Companies House, the United Kingdom’s registrar of companies, which offers access to annual reports for every JV as well as the wholly owned entities INTO Manchester and INTO London World Education Centre.  They make for interesting reading.

No doubt the wonks, analysts and number crunchers will comb these reports over the coming months as part of their due diligence and financial interrogation. As The Skids minor-hit of 1979, Into The Valley said – its ‘time for the audit, the gathering trial.’ But for this blog I am going to focus on enrolments because that is the area where most pathway providers claim they bring expertise, investment, global reach and commercial nous which add up to student recruitment that universities cannot match.

The individual filings appear to be consistent in reporting the average number of students in each Centre during the year. Table one shows these for ten entities operating in the 2013/14 Financial Year and still operating in 2016/17. This excludes the now closed St George’s University JV and the INTO Newcastle University London JV established in 2015.

Table 1: Yearly Average Enrolments at INTO Centres

*Manchester and London are not joint ventures.  Their parent company is INTO University Partnerships
Source: Annual Reports 2013/14 to 2016/17

The average enrolments in 2013/14 across all Centres was 4284 while in 2016/17 it was 4016 – a decline of -6.3%. The peak year for enrolment was 2014/15 when an average of 4293 enrolments are shown. As a comparator HESA reports that the UK HE sector’s first year international enrolments declined from 179,250 in 2013/14 to 172,275 in 2016/17 – a fall of 3.9%.

There will be many drivers for enrolment performance and as my previous blogs have indicated there have been winners and losers amongst universities over the past few years. Many in-house international offices have secured outstanding results and some universities have received strong support from the performance of their pathway partners. The picture for INTO looks mixed with only the Queen’s and Stirling JVs showing an increase in average numbers enrolled.

What also interested me was that I once heard a pathway leader explaining to a worried Vice-Chancellor that the period from start up to profitability for a pathway was ‘deepening and widening’. Both Gloucestershire and Stirling JVs were in start-up mode in this period having been incorporated in 2013. But their fortunes seem to have taken different directions with the latter forging ahead as the former has fallen back. It would be no surprise if pathways at more lowly-ranked universities were finding it harder to make progress under increasingly competitive conditions.

We can also see that even some of the pathways at well-known top 30 universities, Newcastle and East Anglia, have had a pretty torrid time in terms of enrolments. Newcastle enrolments fell by 24.3% from their peak in 2014/15 and East Anglia by 17.5% in the same period. City, a relatively well-known university with strong international intakes and a London advantage, saw numbers fall by 25.5%.  This suggests that even well-established partnerships with big name partners are not a guarantee of successful enrolment.

The university partners are, of course, still securing students who progress from these pathways but this scale of decline is unlikely to be made up for by improved progression rates or increased fee levels. My recent blogs have demonstrated that both Newcastle and UEA have seen their overall international student fee income declining over recent years. And while INTO University Partnerships’ share of the JV profits is not the only stream of income to its business it is reasonable to assume that the company would prefer operating profits to losses.

For INTO, and the pathway sector more generally, in both the UK and the US the challenges are not going away any time soon. These include the growth of favoured locations such as Canada, Australia and Europe, the emergence of new destinations and particularly those in Asia, and the ever-present spectre of improving on-line delivery and in-country tuition improving English-language levels.

Tennyson’s poem, The Charge of the Light Brigade, provides an apt metaphor. He wrote that as the cavalry charged ‘into the valley of Death’ there were ‘cannon to right of them, cannon to left of them, cannon in front of them’. There were survivors but of the original 600 Light Dragoons, Lancers and Hussars in the charge fewer than 200 were able to re-assemble with their horses.

Over a billion dollars has been invested in private pathway providers since 2010 as the prospects for growth in the US and UK seemed bright. If there is a next round of deals for those providers – Study Group have also been for sale recently –  it seems likely that the price must reflect the market challenges. If not we may recall that, as French Marshal Pierre Bosquet reportedly said of the Charge, “C’est de la folie” — “It is madness.”