Tag: ukhighereducation

Keeping Ahead of the Game

We’ve been hearing a lot about the parlous state of finances for UK universities and the Times Higher Education had another run around the issue with a “red alert” that the Open University has posted a £25m operating deficit.  In the same piece Coventry University is reported as having a £2.4m deficit but “does not consider this to be material uncertainty that would cast doubt on the group’s ability to continue as a going concern”.  The next university quoted is the University of Wolverhampton whose deficit has improved to £11.9m from £27.8m the year before which seems to rather undermine the point.

With university financial statements coming thick and fast a quick review suggests that the picture is significantly muddied by accounting for pension changes.  However, there is also a growing acknowledgement that several have been travelling far too hopefully on predicting student number growth.  The big unknown for the future is international student recruitment but one would think that there has been fair warning of declining numbers in the coming year or two.

As it happens the Open University seems a strange example to choose because it is almost wholly a distance learning university and unlike any other UK institution.  What their plight might say about the distance learning market during a cost-of-living crisis and encroachment by new operators is for another day.  But for now a quick review of just a few, more traditional institutions suggests that planning well and adjusting to market condition is vital, that diversity of income is a bonus, that travelling hopefully is not recommended and that the university pension scheme will remain a headache. There is even a small insight into how the pathway market might have treated them and their commercial partners last year.

University of East Anglia

Anyone looking at the situation for UEA this time last year was probably contemplating the story lines of Deep Impact and Armageddon converging on Norwich.  It’s not clear if the new VC, Professor David Maguire has aspirations to Bruce Willis style asteroid drilling and detonation but the Annual Report and Financial statements 2022/23 is quickly to the point by noting that the accumulated years of multiple deficits came from “the root cause being a decline in planned student fee income without commensurate reduction in costs.”  Maybe Professor Maguire is more aligned with Wilkins Micawber who told us in David Copperfield, “Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty-pound ought and six, result misery.”

The university had an undrawn £100m line of credit with NatWest Bank at the end of the financial year and “remains confident that it has in place adequate funding to support the operational and development plans, and to provide a reserve for managing financial risks.”  The proposed cost saving of £30.1m was achieved without compulsory staff redundancies (although one should not underestimate the anxiety and upset felt by many members of staff) and there is “a pathway to breakeven in 2025/26”.  It all sounds reasonably upbeat and may be a reflection of what all institutions could do if they assessed potential risks effectively and acted more decisively to get ahead of the potential problems.

While the university has been mending its finances the joint venture with INTO has continued to present difficulties.  During the year “..the University has provided cash to INTO to the amount of £1.7m to support its operations” which is additional to the £3.5m CBIL scheme loan from the COVID period.  There seems to be some way to go before the problems there are unravelled.

University of Exeter

A tone of realism infuses the University of Exeter annual report and financial statement 2022/23 with a recognition of the challenges but apparent acceptance that “we must..continue to identify ways to increase efficiency and financial sustainability”.  A decline in new student entrants from 13,013 to 11,185 is presented as a “planned return to more normal levels of Home Undergraduate entry, following two extraordinary years affected by the reaction to the Covid pandemic’s impact on exams.”  An operating surplus for the year of £29m is about level with the year before.

International student fee income increased by nearly £22m to £135.8m while Home and EU student fees fell by just over £10.7m but funding body grants and research grants were up by over £25m.  Perhaps surprisingly the number of research staff was down 16 and while academic staff numbers rose by 161 the number of professional service staff rose by 179.  It’s worth noting that the number of staff listed as being paid over £100,000 (and excluding employers pension contribution) has increased year on year from 187 to 222 with 31 in the £130-140k bracket compared to 12 the year before. 

The role of INTO Exeter in the University of Exeter’s finances is relatively limited but the accounts show that the university’s share of operating surplus went down £150k to £840k which might suggest that the joint venture was less productive in the year.

University of Stirling

Looking north of the border the University of Stirling sounds bullish but there might be some question marks around the direction in which the finances are travelling.  The underlying operating surplus is down from £15.4m to £8.7m, net debt is up £7.4m to £27.8m and net liquidity days are down from 233 to 180.  Research income growth was virtually static and the tuition fee income was driven by a 23.7% increase in, largely postgraduate, international students (which presumably contributed significantly to income from residences etc).  Basically, home/EU tuition fees were down over £4m and non-EU fees were up nearly £9m which may be a vulnerability if UK visa issues reduce recruitment significantly.  The Vice-Chancellor’s salary (excluding benefits and pension contributions) went up from £295k to £363k.

The joint-venture with INTO looks to have had a better year with income up just over £500k and the pre-tax loss for the year down to £305k while the net liabilities have grown by just over £250k.  Over the longer term, the joint-venture has struggled to return to levels of enrolment achieved in 2018 while debt to 50% owner INTO University Partnerships (IUP) has grown.  The University of Stirling created a company called UoS Education Limited whose primary purpose £3.8m of joint-venture trading debt to the university was converted into a loan facility of £4m.

University Pension Scheme

The impact of the USS Pension Scheme and the impact of revaluation is a key theme throughout the university accounts reviewed for this blog and in the financial statements of other institutions.  The scheme is a running sore for the sector and it is difficult to believe that it can survive in its current form over the long term.  The recent turnaround in the scheme’s value is almost wholly due to changing financial market conditions. While it is usually better to be lucky than good, Dame Kate Barker, chair of the USS Trustee Board made the point that “it is not possible to predict with any certainty where long-term interest rates, asset values and expected investment returns will be at future valuations (in three or six years’ time).”

The arguments are for experts to make but if there is a genuine crisis coming to UK university finances it seems likely that there will have to be further consideration of the scheme in much the same way as most UK private schemes have changed.  The Pension Protection Fund indicates that 90% of defined benefit schemes do not accept new members and 53% have stopped offering the scheme to anyone.  In the context of public sector schemes a recent commentator in the Financial Times suggested that “..a pension — however generous — can’t be spent today, and the government should allow all public sector workers to choose higher pay, in exchange for a lower DB pension in retirement.”  Probably unpopular but possibly worth thinking about.

Image by Alexa from Pixabay

A Look Before You Leap

Recovering from the gluttony of Christmas dinner and resolving to resist the lure of nibbling on leftovers is a little like universities making new year resolutions to be slightly less greedy and indiscriminate about international student recruitment.  We all know that it makes sense to lose the excess pounds, focus on high quality, nourishing food, and cease acting with the incaution of a drunken sailor.  But the temptation of finishing the mince pies, the bottle of egg nog and the turkey sandwiches, while avoiding the gym is sometimes overwhelming.

Maybe that’s why it’s up to Governments to decide who has been naughty or nice and who deserves a visit from the Ghost of Christmas 2024.  The last few months of 2023 saw a lot of political posturing and positioning in the four main recruiting countries and the impact of some changes are already being felt.  A quick look at the implications suggests that for the big four recruiting countries international recruitment at the latter end of 2024 will be a Nightmare Before Christmas for some but a Miracle on 34th Street for others.

The good news for student recruiters is that it’s a leap year so they have a whole extra day to work out their response.1

United Kingdom

The gift of post-study work in September 2019 gave UK universities the keys to the student recruitment larder but they appear to have been caught eating too much low-quality pie.  This has left the sector vulnerable to Government action and it is likely to find the coming recruitment cycle difficult.  Enroly Data Insights in November 2023 indicated “..overall deposit payments are down by 52%, CAS issuance is down by 64% and visa issuance is down by 71% when compared to January 2023.”  While the year-on-year comparison has its limitations there seems little doubt that changes in Government visa policy on dependents is already biting.

News in early December that a review of the Graduate Route to “prevent abuse” and “protect the integrity and quality of the UK’s outstanding higher education sector” may not augur well for the medium term either.  Although the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) is not likely to report on the issue until near the end of 2024, when a general election is either under way or already over, one suspects that any new Government, will accept its recommendations. MAC recommended against the graduate route before it was introduced and there is no reason to believe they won’t do so again.

MAC’s starting point seems clear from the Annual Report 2023 where it notes that there are “..a very different set of students accessing the route than might have been expected based on student patterns in 2019 when the route was announced.”  The largest growth has been “predominantly been in institutions that charge the lowest fees” and “been strongest at the less selective universities”.  Anyone who understands international recruitment would have predicted these outcomes and it is quite extraordinary that Government supporters of the Graduate Route did not understand these as likely outcomes.  

A possible saviour for the current length of post-study work visa might be that the recent restrictions on dependents make a serious enough dent in international student numbers before the main intake in autumn 2024.  Aligned with an unwillingness to invest further in the higher education sector this could find the narrow path that allows the next Government to see how net migration figures play out for at least another year before imposing further constraints.  One suspects, however, that the ideological setting of MAC will demand more in terms of quality recruitment and a requirement to move to a different visa after study.      

Canada

The growth in Canada’s international student recruitment numbers has been remarkable.  According to Erudera, study permit holders nearly doubled from 2016 (410,570) to 2022 (807,750) with international students in tertiary education increasing by around 150,000 from 2015/16 (228,924) to 2020/21 (373,599).  The strength of recruitment from India has been a feature of the market for many years so it was well placed to capitalize on the boom of recent years.

Many observers would reflect that the magnitude of the growth has come at a cost to processes and reputation.  Claims of “bureaucratic mismanagement” were being called out as long ago as 2017 and there have been reports of universities accepting 99% of international students who apply and/or having visa rejection rates around 80%.  Issues around aggregator platforms allowing institutions to absolve their responsibilities for agents and the sheer volume of applications causing delays in visa processing or allowing fraudulent applications through have also been prominent.      

It does look as if the Canadian federal government has responded to the various scandals around students starving, dying and being misled about their study choices but in the wrestling match with powerful provinces it is difficult to see a comprehensive response taking hold. One response to a possible international enrolment cap was from Alexandre Lahaie, a spokesperson for Quebec’s Immigration Ministry saying that “Quebec does not intend to impose a cap on the number of foreign students in its jurisdiction…..Although issuing study permits is the responsibility of the federal government, education is the exclusive power of Quebec,”.  The pace of change can be slow as reflected by the cost-of-living financial requirement for students going up recently for the first time since the early 2000s.

While the IRCC has signalled a new Trusted Institution framework in 2024 and the International Education Strategy is due a refresh in mid-2024 experts reflect that this is a “challenging policy area”.  It is difficult to see that a minority Government facing an election no later than October 2025 is likely to want to upset the apple cart, particularly when some suggest Prime Minister Trudeau’s own role as party leader is under scrutiny.  One suspects that any changes to policy on international student recruitment in 2024 will be about tidying up around the edges and minimizing friction rather than significantly reducing intakes.

Australia

While the Australian government has rattled its sabre over the issues of international student recruitment the smart money seems to be on plenty of light touch regulation and monitoring along with touches on the tiller for employability without significantly damaging intakes.  The Australian Migration Strategy released in December 2023 looked a pretty nuanced document that provides plenty of space to “…lift the standards for international students and education providers while ensuring graduates help meet skills shortages and do not become permanently temporary.”

Study Australia leapt on the Strategy to suggest a join up between clear post study pathways, genuine student requirement, requirements on education providers and high-quality education agents.  By maintaining special initial stay periods for Indian nationals they have kept faith with a key market while setting IELTS at 5.5 for university foundation and pathway programs at the same time as moving levels for Temporary Graduate and Student visas upwards balances access with quality.

In contrast to the UK and Canada there seems to be a coherence in the Migration Strategy which respects the strength of its higher education sector as a critical part of national branding and infrastructure while addressing issues in the private VET sector where some “have systematically exploited Australia’s education system and broken migration law.”  Issues of graduate employability are addressed with the responsibility of institutions being noted and a study commissioned “..to better analyse international student outcomes and pathways into the labour market, with deep tripartite consultation of unions, employers, and training and education providers.”

Some are concerned that the measures put in place to date will have a dampening impact on recruitment but the sense is of a more reassuring picture than that being offered by the UK.  Placed alongside some speculation that the Canadian juggernaut might be losing pace this is likely to make the Australian picture pretty benign for international students.  2024 looks like it should be another good year. 

United States of America

For the growing sending markets the USA is a highly desirable country with a well-regarded higher education sector.  There is also every sign that US universities seeking to increase international recruitment have upped their game in terms of focus, competitive awareness and professionalism.  Even the Government has played its part with exceptional numbers of visas processed in 2023, amendments to H-1B visas and steps towards modernizing the visa process more generally.

The India numbers were material in driving international enrolments in Fall 2023 and the chief executive of the Institute of International Education was positively gleeful in suggesting, “Made in the USA is something that these students and families want on their diplomas.”  It should be very difficult to be negative about the potential for the US to substantially grow international enrolments in 2024.  The real question is what might disturb that and what might happen next.

A presidential election in November 2024 already has some pundits claiming that a re-election for Donald Trump would lead to, “A mass deportation operation. A new Muslim ban. Tariffs on all imported goods and “freedom cities” built on federal land.”  Study Portals data from 2016 suggests that more than 50% of international students were “far less likely” to study in the US than they were before Trump’s election.  It is difficult to see why the outcome would be any different in the coming year.

Trump’s views on higher education institutions suggest there may be even wider implications for the sector.  The noise around the election is bound to rise and the rhetoric is almost certain to ramp up in a way that begins to make alternative countries look a more stable option.  Relationships with India could also become a bit sticky if the threatened “retribution” on reciprocal taxation looks like becoming a reality.

Summary

The world offers many options delivering courses in English and most are finding ways of making post-work study a possibility with some going further in terms of possible routes to citizenship.  In the face of uncertainty many agents and students have a tendency to consider their options and look for the route of least resistance to meet their needs.  The evidence of the past few years is that options are kept open and decisions can be delayed for much longer than ever used to be the case.

We also seem to be seeing Governments viewing higher education and its capacity for international recruitment as a work-force planning component in the face of changing population demographics.  While university leaders are quick to proclaim quality education as the key driver of global interest there is growing evidence that low cost, post graduate employability and routes to citizenship are much more important for the growing markets.  All this at a point when the enthusiasm for university education is under pressure from disenchanted youth, apathetic public and cash-squeezed Governments.

More than ever before there is a need for joining up the dots in the way that the Australian Migration Strategy seems to do (although everyone recognizes that implementation is something different).  The UK seems to lurch from policy to policy without much apparent insight into the consequences and Canada appears to be slow moving and in thrall to competing interests across Federal and Provincial governments.  The US runs the risk of finding its historical attraction and dominant position undermined by more nimble players while internal, political factionalism prevents any realistic hope of long-term, strategic planning for growth.     

Notes

  1.  Royal Museums Greenwich tell us that “the first leap year in the modern sense in Britain was 1752, when 11 days were ‘lost’ from the month September with the adoption of the Gregorian calendar by Britain and her colonies. After 1752 we adopted the system still in use today where an additional day is inserted in February in years wholly divisible by four, other than years ending in 00 with the exception of those divisible by 400 which are still leap years (like 2000).”  

Image by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay

Study Group Hokey Pokey

In recent months there has been triumphant messaging on LinkedIn from Shorelight’s Tom Dretler claiming that the business “brought more international students to the US” than anybody else in fall 2023.  It was queried by Andrew Colin of INTO University Partnerships with the riposte “Are you sure?” to which Tom posted a thumbs up sign.  Probably better than the middle finger emoji but as neither of them would be able to definitively prove the point we are probably none the wiser.

What is clear is that Shorelight, having overtaken INTO for pathway partnerships within three years of springing into existence, has also significantly outstripped the erstwhile US market leader in terms of direct recruitment options.  But as the US comes back to life after a tough and long pandemic it is interesting to watch the maneuvering of other players.  There is no doubt that there are probably hundreds of US universities who would like to get on the gravy train of southeast Asia enrollment opportunities so we should expect a glut of wannabe global student recruitment options emerging.

Enter Study Group, whose approach to the US has been akin to a slightly the worse for wear dad doing the Hokey Pokey1 on new year’s eve.  The gyrations of the past few years are a painful reminder that a business that could once claim to be among the world leaders as a private provider of recruitment services to universities seems to be struggling for identity, a sense of direction and worst of all hard cash.  Having abdicated to Navitas in Australia by selling all of its holdings and now facing a UK Tory Government lining up post-graduate work as the Christmas sacrifice to right-wing rebellion, it seems to have turned attention across the Atlantic.

The announcement of three new direct recruitment partners may look like a decisive step but you have to wonder whether this represents a strategic drive for market share or a gambler’s final throw.  A quick look at the recent international student enrollment record and a few facts about each university might suggest that we are at the stage of the evening where subdued lighting and sufficient refreshment has brought lonely souls together.  Maybe inspiration on the partnerships has been drawn from the mighty Bruce Springsteen’s suggestion that “Show a little faith, there’s magic in the night, You ain’t a beauty, but hey, you’re alright.”2

Shake It All About

Between 2019 and 2021 Study Group ended relationships with seven US universities and, as recently reported, has seen Baylor University depart the fold in 2023.  Some of the relationships had been in place as long ago as 2008 but there was a burst of activity with new partners in 2013 and 2014 after the purchase of Study Group from Champ Private Equity by Providence Equity Partners for a reported £388.3m in 2010.  Of the four partners added at that point only one remains.

By 2017 Study Group was on the block again.  It seem entirely possible that the addition of seven new partners between 2016 and 2018 was driven as much by the desire to show momentum as long-term strategic planning.  Four of the seven are no longer partners.  Current major backer Ardian bought the business in 2019 without the terms of trade being made public but at a point when the decline in US international pathway businesses was already evident.

Timing is everything and nobody could have predicted the pandemic to come, so Ardian have been obliged to put up with some even more difficult times.  Between February 2021 and March 2023 they tipped a further £77m into the business according to Study Group’s Annual Report and Financial Statements. Despite that in the year ended 2022 Study Group posted a decline in new student enrollments of 22% from 8,050 to 6,244 year on year and lost a top university brand, Lancaster University, to INTO in 2023.

A more detailed review of the underlying issues at long-term partner James Madison University shows the problems that Study Group may still have in holding on to its pathway business.  In that context it seems possible that new partner universities, whatever their merits, will be welcome if Ardian are considering how best to extract themselves from an investment which seems unlikely to have satisfied expectations, in a sector that is in significant turmoil.  Getting out of Australia just as the tide seems to be turning looked a curious decision but the growing risks in the UK must be leaving many senior people with sleepless nights. 

Maybe this is the moment that a major (and often discussed) reunion bringing Andrew Colin’s two creations – Study Group and INTO University Partnerships – together might provide the critical mass and overhead savings to compete effectively while balancing risk around the globe.  The merits of merging two businesses that have struggled to make headway in recent years, and where one is embroiled in legal dispute with a major US university, might be questionable.  Perhaps CEG should be thrown in the mix to complete a trifecta.            

Shake It All About

The three new partners are University of Nebraska – Omaha, CSU San Marcos and Townson University in Maryland.  Study Group is putting its brand in at points north, east and west with a group of institutions that might be described as eclectic.  One thing that connects them looks to be slow progress in recovering international student numbers quickly after the pandemic.

University of Nebraska – Omaha positions itself as “Nebraska’s Metropolitan University”.. “dedicated to the city and state in our name.”   It’s international enrollment since 2019 has followed a broad pattern of decline in undergraduate numbers but an encouraging uptick in graduate students since 2020.  One would guess that the relatively low tuition fee of $22,358 and value for money housing costs could also be an attraction.

On the other hand, Nebraska might be a tough sell as a location and it’s worth noting that the University of Nebraska – Lincoln is the dominant international student recruiter in the state.  It claims the “lowest tuition in the Big Ten” at $28,792 and looks in a good position to dominate competitively.      

Warren Buffett, the “Sage” of Omaha, is among the more famous residents of Nebraska.  With a presidential election in 2024 and possible uncertainties that might bring it is difficult not to think of his dictum, “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”  Given Study Group’s US record that might be worth thinking about.  

Source: University of Nebraska – Omaha Office of Institutional Effectiveness

Those who think of California as an ideal location for international student recruitment need to remember that the performance of the big players is not always replicable.  For every University of Southern California (15,729 international students in 2022 according to Open Doors) there is a, um, CSU San Marcos (CSUSM).  The international new student enrollment at CSUSM was never particularly high and appears to have been in serious decline for four years with little joy even in graduate recruitment.

Tuition and fees at CSUSM look reasonable at $18,160 for UG rising to c$22,000 for most Graduate degress but room and board costs are less so.

Source: CSU San Marcos Office of Institutional Planning and Analysis

One the east coast Towson University has a new President in Mark Ginsberg and was embroiled in a controversy earlier this year for allegedly “creating programs that already exist at historically Black colleges and universities.”  It later withdrew the program.  It bills itself as a “…nationally recognized leader in inclusive excellence.”

With undergraduate fees of around $28,000 a year it is the most expensive of the three but presumably the location offers some relief from the sunshine of southern California and the seasonal extremes of Nebraska.  It’s non-resident student fall enrollment has been lackluster for several years with graduate numbers creeping up only slowly.

Source: Towson University Office of Institutional Research  

You Put Your Whole Self In

Good strategy requires long-term commitment, intense focus and a relentless drive to implement effectively even as circumstances change.  If this is Study Group’s new direction they will need to move very quickly to build their portfolio and execute enrollment against some entrenched opposition.  It may be, however, that the sale of the Australian portfolio and the saturation of the UK market has reduced options to the point where it is the only game left to play.

NOTES

  1. The Hokey Pokey is an Americanization of the Hokey Cokey which reached peak popularity in the UK in the 1940s.  The peak of popularity in the US is claimed to be the 1950s. Perhaps Study Group intend to revitalize it…
  2. The line is from what is, in my view, The Boss’s greatest song “Thunder Road”. Written in 1975 it was the first song on breakthrough album Born to Run. Apparently he played it as first song when he first played in the UK in November 1975.

Image by OpenClipart-Vectors from Pixabay

Closing Open Doors

This is probably the final blog relating to Open Doors data on 2022 enrollment of international students for US universities and the more recent data published by individual universities for fall 2023. That makes it a bit longer than usual and it includes a small diversion into some recent commentary about online being the new international!

Beavering Away Or Bellying Up?

The yearly posting of detailed information from Oregon State University (OSU) offers timely data, good detail and easy accessibility.  Universities in the UK and around the world would do well to follow the model if they want to engage more effectively with the public.  It is difficult to have a serious discussion about trends or for politicians to make good decisions when information is more than two years out of date.

All that said, this year’s data reflects the continuing struggles of some well-regarded US universities and their pathway partners to recover after the pandemic.  The detailed numbers underline the perils of over-reliance on a single market and the reality that the US bounceback outlined by Open Doors fall 2022 data is patchy.  As noted in a previous blog, the data gives clarity on why pathway partner INTO University Partnerships (INTO) didn’t mention the university in its press release suggesting a “..huge surge in international student enrollment for its US institutional partners..”.

The total of enrolled UG and graduate students shows that OSU is making no progress in recovering the volume of international students lost since the pandemic.  There has been a small uptick in graduate students (+68) but undergraduate numbers continue to plummet with a decline of 16% year on year (-192).  While the year-on-year decline is slowing, OSU does not appear to have benefited in 2022 or from the reported increase in international enrollments indicated by the Open Doors Fall 2023 Snapshot.   

Source: Oregon State University Officer of Institutional Research

NB: INTO OSU students, excluding those on Academic English courses, are included in these totals

The driving factor for the decline is that the university was heavily reliant on Chinese students and has been unable to significantly grow numbers from India or elsewhere.  In its other historically stronger recruitment markets OSU is losing ground with Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Taiwan all in decline over four years.  What seems difficult to explain, given OSU’s quality and the supposed recruiting power of its private partner, is that the Open Doors state by state detail suggests two other Oregon universities – Portland State University and the University of Oregon – seem to have stabilized their overall number of international students in 2023 more effectively than OSU.  

Source: Oregon State University Officer of Institutional Research

It is also clear that the pathway proposition (INTO OSU) offered by INTO is not providing much momentum with a down year in 2022 and a net increase of just seven students in 2023.  Without a substantial shift in recruiting market dynamics it is difficult to see a path or a way (sic) to significant growth in the future.

Source: Oregon State University Officer of Institutional Research

The decline in INTO OSU’s numbers reflects even more clearly the past reliance on China (and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia).  Taiwan now contributes more volume to the pathway than China.  The aphorism “you can’t buck the market” is often attributed to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher but it’s a warning to operators around the world that changing to meet shifting market conditions is critical to long-term success.

Source: Oregon State University Officer of Institutional Research

Is Online The New International?

An interesting rider to all this is the recent blog by Glenda Morgan in Phil Hill’s On EdTech Newsletter.  She asks the question, “Is Online the New International” and noted that “..by 2021 eCampus was the largest source of OSU’s tuition revenue.”  The suggestion in the newsletter is that US university focus on international student recruitment might be drifting, in the context of continuing pressure on budgets at state level, towards online recruitment.

The article contains a quote from Rajika Bhandari summarizing that, “Most students coming from India are at the graduate level. This has always been the case and likely will be for the foreseeable future.  Therefore, just from a recruitment and revenue perspective, they are never going to have the same impact on an institution’s bottom line as the Chinese undergraduate students.”  I first speculated on this in a UK context in January 2020 and have made the point on a number of occasions that the impact on traditional pathways was likely to be even greater.

The article leads to an interesting conclusion about “..the costs involved in physical campuses.” Anyone who has worked at a university sees how the emotional ties to the institution’s location are almost as powerful as the existence of labs, lecture theatres and student housing. One suspects it will take many years (or possibly a few university insolvencies) to change that mindset.

It’s thought-provoking stuff and may mean that some universities are already accepting the constraints on globally mobile international students as a revenue source.  This would leave some of the commercial operators who have no track record in either delivering or recruiting to online courses with a bleak future.  There may be a particular danger where academic English courses are concerned as James Madison University noted in its consideration of failure by Study Group to recruit to an Intensive English Language program.

Do Private Providers Make A Difference?

In October 2020 a Report by NAFSA, APLU and INTO made the claim that “Institutions with third-party pathway partnerships were 1.73x more likely to experience international enrollment growth…”.  The data analysed was across two historical periods – 2007-2015 and 2015-2018 – and there was a lot of weighty statistical explanation.  Against that background it is interesting to apply a simple comparison to see what has happened in recent years.

The graph below takes the Open Doors state by state enrollment numbers for three of INTO’s “present” comprehensive university partners (with pathways) and places them alongside those of three “past” partners who no longer have pathways with INTO.  The time series avoids the peak pandemic affected years of 2021 and 2022 but show prior performance and how the bounceback might be happening.  Washington State University (WSU) and Colorado State University (CSU) ceased being pathway partners in 2021 and 2022 respectively but are direct recruitment partners.  The University of South Florida claims to have terminated the pathway partnership in April 2022 but a legal battle is ongoing and is the subject of several earlier blogs.

This data appears to show that past partners WSU and CSU had declining numbers before the breakup and that being direct recruitment part has shown no benefit in terms of growing numbers post pandemic.  On the other hand, the split and no ongoing direct recruitment relationship does not seem to have stopped USF from driving its international enrollments significantly higher in 2023.

The “present” comprehensive partners shown all have pathways but allow INTO to recruit directly to certain university programs.  There is a satisfying upward curve to the University of Alabama – Birmingham (UAB) curve and George Mason University (GMU) also appears to have bounced back strongly in 2023.  It is all the more perplexing that Oregon State University has been in decline since 2017 and looks to be the worst performer among the six.

It would seem fair to say from this data that a comprehensive partnership with a pathway is no guarantee of growing enrollments, that being a direct recruitment only partner appears to have relatively little impact on performance and that it is entirely possible for a university to drive enrollment outside of any relationship with a pathway/direct recruitment partner. While there was little doubt that INTO helped OSU make rapid progress in international recruitment for several years until about 2016 a lot has happened since then.

None of this is to suggest that the Report by NAFSA, APLU and INTO was incorrect in its analysis.  However, it is reasonable to believe that the changing international student source markets, growth in competition and other factors should make institutions negotiate hard if they are looking at these relationships.  Building a business or a growth strategy on data that is five years old and past glories is probably not a good idea.  

Source: Open Doors State Facts and Figures

It is also increasingly clear that pathways are unlikely to be the answer, with further evidence from UAB showing that the INTO pathway courses have struggled to recover after the pandemic and that Academic English is showing almost no signs of revival at all.  This reflects the situation at GMU reported in a previous blog and the minor increase of seven students for OSU shown in the graphs above.  This pathway picture appears to be repeated across Study Group and Shorelight pathway partners.

 Source: University of Alabama at Birmingham Office of Institutional Effectiveness   

NOTES

As alway, the analysis in this blog reflects a genuine attempt to interpret and consider the implications of data from public sources. It is recognized that there may be minor underlying differences in the way the data is collected. The source of the data is given so that readers may make their own judgements and if an authoritative source makes contact the author will make appropriate amendments.

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Oh, What A Beautiful Morning

The sun rises on a new week and there’s a fresh batch of news from INTO University Partnerships including overdue accounts being filed, a direct recruitment partner announced and what looks like a departure at Executive Team level.

Territory folks should stick together2

The INTO University of East Anglia LLP Annual Report for the year ended July 2022 arrived with Companies House about a month overdue.  At first glance there seems little reason for the delay and the average student numbers were only slightly down on the year before.  A little deeper digging shows a breaching of “certain covenants” on the CLBILS loan and a number of restatements of prior year financials.

The restatements have taken the prior year (to July 2021) Operating Loss down from £4.6m to £1.8m with the bulk of the difference being a reduction in Administration Expenses of £2.6m.  The notes indicate that this reflected a decision “..that amounts payable to members for contractual services such as marketing should be included within Members’ remuneration charged as an expense..”.  A similar change was made in restatements of 2021 at INTO Newcastle and INTO Stirling but not, as far as I can see, at INTO City, INTO Queen’s or INTO Exeter. 

The COVID-related CLBILS loan is for £7m with HSBC and requires payment of £1m in November 2023 and the final balance to be paid by December 2023.  The Annual Report notes that this is “within the cash flow projections”, with both partners signing a letter of support to enable the LLP to continue to fund its liabilities as they fall due.   The University of East Anglia, which has had its own financial troubles in recent years, has not posted any Council minutes thus far in the 2022/23 academic year so it’s difficult to know if there are any further insights to be gained from its governing body.

This all means that INTO UEA ended up right in the middle of the pack for 2021/22 recruitment at INTO’s UK Centers but still at around half of its pre-pandemic enrollments.  There’s quite a lot riding on the Autumn 2023 intake with another mouth to feed at the newly formed INTO Lancaster Limited.  Just as a small rider on that point it seems as if this entity has been incorporated as a wholly owned INTO entity so it remains to be seen if it another co-owned joint venture.    

Where the wind comes sweepin’ down the plain3

Back in the USA, INTO has just announced a new partnership for direct recruitment with the University of Oklahoma.  This is the second agreement in the US in 2023 following the partnership with Montclair State University announced in July.  Before that, the most recent partnership was with University of Massachusetts Amherst to recruit to 17 master’s degrees, back in September 2022.

Perhaps the May 2023 publication of claims that there was 52% growth in applications for INTO Center-supported programs and 201% growth in direct entry applications has stimulated interest.  Whether this has translated into equal or similar growth in enrollment should become clearer as partner universities publish their data for Fall 2023. In competition terms, the three additional partners are a limited response to Shorelight’s growing higher education smorgasbord of 65 universities offering undergraduate courses and 39 offering masters courses (excluding American Collegiate and non-US campuses).

The court case between INTO and the University of South Florida continues to move along.  Factors include a Hearing on 10 October 2023, to consider “University of South Florida’s Motion to Dismiss INTO University Partnerships Limited’s Supplemental Pleading”4, INTO’s voluntary dismissal of “..Counts XI and XIV of the Supplemental Pleading to the Second Amended Complaint”5, and an appeal by INTO to the Second District Court of Appeal.6

INTO appears to have refreshed its legal team for the Appeal with three lawyers from Susman Godfrey joining INTO’s roster as “foreign”7 attorneys.  Perhaps it is indicative of the stakes, as Susman Godfrey has been named Vault’s #1 litigation boutique in America every year since the award’s inception in 2011.  All of those developments come ahead of a mediation event led by Joseph H. Varner, III, scheduled for 29 September8.

Many a new day9

All this is happening as the INTO Executive Team continues to slim down.  Chief Product Officer Namrata Sarmah who joined in January 2022 is the latest face to disappear from the company’s website leaving a team of seven heading up the organization.  Other developments at INTO have been reported in recent blogs and it does look as if the company is tightening belts and battening down hatches while continuing to invest in University Access Centres and await developments, including Manchester Metropolitan University’s tender for an embedded international student centre.

NOTES

Impossible to resist an Oklahoma theme to the sub-headings.  The “Sooner State” boasts the American Bison as its state animal and the Oklahoma Rose as its flower but the words all belong to songs from the first Rodgers and Hammerstein musical Oklahoma! which premiered in 1943.

  1. Oh, What A Beautiful Mornin’ is the first song after the overture
  2. “Territory folks should stick together” is a line from Farmer and the Cowman
  3. “When the wind comes sweeping down the plain” is taken from the title song, Oklahoma.  For reasons I cannot explain the musical has an exclamation mark and the title song does not!  In 1953 the state legislature chose it as the state song.
  4. Filing # 181397864 E-Filed 09/08/2023 12:06:23 PM
  5. Filing # 180352287 E-Filed 08/23/2023 02:46:41 PM
  6. Filing # 179426524 E-Filed 08/11/2023 08:31:57 AM
  7. Florida Supreme Court RULE 2.510.FOREIGN ATTORNEYS (a) Eligibility. Upon filing a verified motion with the court, an attorney who is an active member in good standing of the bar of another state and currently eligible to practice law in a state other than Florida may be permitted to appear in particular cases in a Florida court upon such conditions as the court may deem appropriate, provided that a member of The Florida Bar in good standing is associated as an attorney of record.
  8. Filing # 179194479 E-Filed 08/08/2023 03:23:11 PM
  9. Many A New Day is a song title from the musical.  Some describe it as an anthem of female indepence.

Image by Tom from Pixabay

Soft Power Is No Big Stick

The Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) has made its Soft Power Index a regular “silly season” news story that fits into the university admissions period to give some positive news for education correspondents.  It is, however, another example of how the sector’s smugness and tendency to self-congratulation diverts it from serious business such as reputation, student satisfaction, graduate employability and shifting global power.  The Index’s use as an “..influential resource….regularly quoted by Government Ministers and in official documents..” suggests senior political decision makers are equally willing to suspend their critical faculties.  

The claim that educating “world leaders” leads to having soft power is scarcely credible.  It is difficult to believe that a Prime Minister, Finance Minister or central Banker, usually in post at least 20 years or more after graduation, is going to make decisions in favour of the country where they spent a year of their higher education.  The Index does not gauge whether their experience was sub-optimal or might have given first hand insight into the tendency to treat international students like convenient, globally mobile cash machines.

In “Soft Power as a policy rationale for international education in the UK: A critical analysis”, Sylvie Lomer, offers a thoroughgoing critique of the entire concept.  She notes that the linking of a student’s attendance to them being well disposed to the UK is “..next to impossible to empirically prove, and the existing evidence is equivocal at best”.  She argues that “..unsubstantiated assumptions in the soft power rationale reveal that the assumptions of the last century are still in play, representing international higher education and students in an outdated power relation predicated on Cold War politics.”

A summary might be that the notion is out of date, lacks evidence and is based on exploitative power relationships.  Over and above that that the HEPI list itself has some inaccuracies and questionable views about country leadership and executive authority that make it even more unreliable as a measure. Yet all of this makes the front page of UK national newspapers and is seen as a cause for celebration.         

UK May Have Width But Not Weight

Even if it were true that senior decision makers were likely to do favours for the country of their alma mater, Nick Hillman’s claim that, “The number of world leaders educated in other countries…is a good proxy for the amount of soft power held by different countries.” seems wide of the mark.  It is like suggesting that having the leaders of Vannatu, St Vincent and the Grenadines and Dominica1 (combined GDP of $2.3bn) well-disposed to trade deals equates to more soft power than having South Africa2 (GDP $418bn) onside.  The size of the benefit or advantage conferred must surely be one measure of any form of power.3

South Africa is mentioned here because it has the lowest GDP of all the nations in the G20.  This brings us to the second problem with considering the HEPI Soft Power Index as a “proxy for..soft power”, which is that the list of UK educated “leaders” does not include any of the current political leaders in the G20 countries.  Those who would point to Emperor Naruhito of Japan by way of rebuttal should consider that Article 4 of the country’s Constitution defines his role as entirely ceremonial and representative, without even nominal powers related to government.

The G20 is referenced because it is commonly known as “the premier forum for international economic cooperation” and its members represent “around 85% of the global GDP, over 75% of the global trade, and about two-thirds of the world population.”  While some other countries and organizations are invited to G20 events the members lead the substantive work throughout the year.  Any reflection on “soft power” should be weighted to consider where that power brings economic and political clout.

US Is Not Much Better

Before anybody in the US gets too excited about its own array of world leaders, it’s worth noting that the HEPI list contains a glaring inaccuracy in suggesting that the leader of South Korea has any education in the US.  Korea Net, the official voice of the Korean government, carries a biography that has President Yoon Suk-yeol3 firmly in Seoul National University for his BA and MA*.  Unfortunately, the HEPI list (below) suggests that Hassan Sheikh Mohamud leads both Somalia and South Korea which is clearly a typo but adds an erroneous addition to the US numbers.

That leaves the US with Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of G20 member the UK, an alumnus of Stanford University.   There is no doubt that the UK has been keen to do a trade deal with the US since leaving the European Union but that probably has more to do with the economic benefits than Sunak’s year in the “Golden State”.  Sadly, the feeling was not mutual and the UK Prime Minister has accepted the Atlantic Declaration as the best available solution although short of a fully-fledged trade deal.

Royal Flush

One of the more annoying features of the Index is that it indiscriminately incorporates members of various Royal families around the world as leaders of the country.  A little analysis would show that several cannot be assumed to carry any real authority.  Emperor Naruhito, whose book suggests he thoroughly enjoy his time in the UK, might be a fan of the country but as noted above his potential to influence decisions is seriously circumscribed.

Other UK Royal alumni who might usefully be removed from the list are the King of Lesotho, Letsie III, who is the country’s head of state but serves a “largely ceremonial function”, no longer possesses any executive authority and is prohibited from actively participating in political initiatives.  King Harald V of Norway has executive power but “..is not politically responsible for exercising it.”  After a controversy the Constitution of Luxembourg was amended so that Grand Duke Henri of Luxembourg no longer has to “sanction” laws for them to take effect.

The US list has far fewer members of Royalty than the UK.  However, King Felipe VI of Spain may be a useful supporter with most Spaniards apparently wanting him to play a greater role in politics and Albert II, Prince of Monaco, also appears to have genuine executive authority and may be worth his place. .

The list could also do with tidying up so that the disproportionate number of small countries with two leaders listed do not distort the overall measurement.  HEPI have noted that they do not list King Charles III of England as head of state of 14 Commonwealth countries so it’s unclear how some other decisions have been made to list two leaders.  It may be as simple as a way of inflating the UK figures.

Looking At the G Force

Taking Wikipedia’s list of the 61 key representatives at the G20 – country leader, finance minister and central bank “governor” – it appears that 17 of them (28%) have some overseas education at undergraduate or postgraduate level.  Three of the leaders, six of the finance ministers and 8 of the central bankers with US experience leading the UK by 11 to six.  The most international of all seems to be Chrystia Freeland, finance minister of Canada, who has undergraduate experience in the US and postgraduate experience in the UK as well as having been an exchange student at the University of Kyiv , Ukraine.

Another issue to remember here is that the G20 has its own power divisions with the G7 – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US and European Union – meeting separately of BRICS (see below). The D-10 Strategy Forum has all of the G7 plus Australia, India and South Korea and is a further inititiative adding complexity to any suggestion that an individual decision makers personal preferences can make a difference.    

More BRICS In the Wall

The growing strength and membership growth of the BRICS bloc could be further bad news for the notion that the UK and US are able to exercise soft power due to offering a superior schooling and student experience.  In 2001 a Goldman Sachs economist suggested that the original four members of BRICS would dominate the global economy by 2050.  The five current members account for 41.5% of global population and c32% of global GDP (PPP).   

None of the leaders has any higher education outside of their home country and only South Africa has a connection with the UK in these senior posts.  One of these, Lesetja Kganyago noted the limitations of soft power in his 2023 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture to the International Monetary Fund, when saying that post-apartheid, “Foreign investors all loved South Africa, but they would not invest based on warm feelings.”  It summarises the core problem with the “soft power” argument – you can love somewhere but decline to put your money where your heart is.

The addition of Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to the BRICS bloc may bring a few more UK educated faces to the table but also potential problems.  It is argued that “British-Argentine relations will be stifled so long as the UK refuses to engage in discussions about the future sovereignty of the Falkland Islands.”  The UK Home Secretary has recently stated that Iran is the “biggest threat to the UK” which seems unlikely to win friends and influence people.

Summary

It seems entirely possible that high quality higher education can be a powerful force in developing “soft power” through areas including collaborative research, meaningful exchange of good practice and genuine, shared initiatives offering mutual benefit. But time is running out for developed western countries that believe they can exploit countries by simply offering scholarships to smart students.  The BRICS5 initiative is a clear sign that the old world order is being challenged and that countries who have been excluded or manipulated are rethinking their engagement with traditional powers.

NOTES

I undertook an analysis of the HEPI Soft Power Index last year and this blog extends the research and critique to a broader set of country leaders. The research for the current blog was undertaken during week ending 27 August, 2023. Authoritative comments on errors of fact are welcome and will be noted.

The title of this blog reflects US Vice President Theodore Roosevelt’s speech in 1901 where he described the ideal foreign policy as “Speak softly, and carry a big stick”. “Big stick” diplomacy came to reflect backing up discussions with the unspoken threat of military power. It is arguable that in a world where economic links are critical they are usually the dominant “big stick” in negotiations.      

  1. The UK does have “provisional application” trade deals with Dominica and St Vincent and the Grenadines through an overarching deal with the CARIFORUM trade bloc of 14 countries.  Most recent figures show UK trade with St Vincent and the Grenadines was worth £42m and Dominica trade was worth £424m.
  2. UK trade with South Africa is under the SACUM trade bloc of six countries.  Most recent figures show UK trade with South Africa was worth £10.3bn.
  3. I recognize that GDP is only one measure of a country’s relative importance and it is used as an example. In The Power of Nations: Measuring What Matters, Michael Beckley notes “GDP has been described as the leading indicator” and “the Zeus of the statistical pantheon,” because governments, organizations, and scholars around the world use it to gauge states’ raw capabilities.”
  4. Han Duck-soo is the Prime Minister of South Korea and attended Harvard University.  The role of Prime Minister is subordinate to and appointed by the President.
  5. The BRICS membership is not unproblematic and some have suggested it is a “China club”. Nonetheless, there are clear attempts to engage more actively with the Global South in a more inclusive way.

Image by Bieniu94 from Pixabay

Rulings, Filings and Finances

There have probably been better fortnights for INTO University Partnerships (INTO) than the last two of July 2023.  Losing a decision in the court case against the University of South Florida (USF) and missing financial filing deadlines for both INTO University of East Anglia and the parent company are not calculated to bolster confidence or impress existing and potential partners.  Rumours of another round of redundancies and outsourcing also reflect the challenges facing the business.

Truth and Wisdom

Following a hearing on 27 June, Circuit Judge Darren D. Farfante has dismissed Count V of the Second Amended Complaint filed by INTO against Defendants Jennifer Condon, Karen Holbrook, Nic Trivunovich, and Ralph Wilcox.2  In simple terms, the judgement noted that “…sovereign immunity bars Count V of the Second Amended Complaint against the FC Directors as pled.”  The Plaintiffs, INTO USF, Inc., INTO USF LP, and INTO University Partnership Limited, “…subsequently advised the Court that they will not amend and dismissal of Count V of the Second Amended Complaint should be entered for purposes of appeal.”

While the plaintiffs could choose to re-engage on this point if the case ever goes to appeal the position is that after months of assertions that the USF Joint Venture Directors had “breached their fiduciary duties”,3 that particular strand of the matter is closed.  It is difficult to believe that the legal pursuit of individuals hasn’t left some scars on both sides and it may have put the issue of personal liability into the minds of university joint venture board directors elsewhere.  Rulings in one state may not be directly applicable to another but they may offer a sense of how closing a similar joint venture could play out elsewhere. 

Hard on the heels of the judgement USF moved to “..dismiss IUP’s Supplemental Pleading4 with prejudice.”5  This appeared to be substantially on the grounds that Sovereign Immunity also “..Bars Counts X, XI, XII, XIII and XIV”.  The filing also states that that “…opposing counsel (i.e. INTO’s counsel) has not requested that the undersigned stipulate to the filing of a second amended complaint” which seems to suggest the judge will now determine the outcome on these Counts.    

It may be that forthcoming discussions will lead towards a settlement of some sort with notification that a Mediation Conference has been scheduled for 29 September, 20236.  One might think that both organizations would be glad to see an end to such a public dispute.  As always, the author of this blog does not claim any legal expertise and advises readers to seek detailed information to form their own opinions9. 

History Man to Remains of the Day

The decline of INTO’s first joint venture at the University of East Anglia (UEA) is a saddening tale for anybody involved in the successful early days of the initiative.  The rhetoric was largely about the game-changing nature of long-term public-private partnerships but for those involved in the reality of international recruitment the immediate opportunity for increasing enrolments was clear.  INTO has removed the UEA case study from its corporate pages but the early days were genuinely transformational.

While the crisis at the University and the departure of its Vice-Chancellor has broader causes the situation has been exacerbated by a significant decline in the enrolment and financial fortunes of the joint venture.  The late filing, for the second year in a row, of the joint venture’s financial statement due on 31 July, 2023, means it is not possible to know whether enrolments fell even further in 2021/22 but the direction of travel has been downwards since 2015.  It is also likely that this has contributed to UEA’s declining revenue from international students.

It seems reasonable to believe that the late filing may be due to broader discussions about the future of the joint venture relationship.  New vice-chancellor, Prof David Maguire, is on record as saying that the immediate future is about “survival of the fittest” and it is difficult to see a compelling case for preserving the joint venture while cutting back on schools of study that have formed the institution’s history and sense of self.  At a time when reports say 400 positions – equivalent to 10 per cent of the workforce – have already been lost at UEA through redundancies, severance and resignations, the extent to which the university should continue to help prop up a loss-making commercial venture must be in question.

There may be an alternative argument that the joint venture brings opportunities for direct recruitment to help UEA out of its current problems.  Whether to stick or twist and whether it is wiser to be the history man6 or look with confidence towards the remains of the day7 is a very real choice.  Given the length of the joint venture contract originally signed and what appears to be a lack of performance it will be interesting to see if UEA would consider the USF route to resolution.

Patet omnibus veritas8

INTO’s financial accounts to July 2022 noted that its cash position during the year had declined from £20.5m to £9.4m year on year and that it had “revised EBITDA covenants agreed with its bankers to February 2024”.  It’s difficult to know what is going on under the surface but rumours of further cutbacks are circulating and it seems plausible that there is a squeeze to cut costs early in the financial year that began on 1 August 2023.  The urgency may be sharpened by developing views on enrolment numbers because, as with many education businesses, a significant portion of revenue will be baked in quite early in the year.

A previous blog suggested some of the issues that the incoming CEO, in February 2023, might want to consider.  The Executive Team has already been slimmed down a reduction in higher salaries is to be expected when the 2022/23 results are published.  On the other hand, expenditure on opening University Access Centres seems to be continuing, there is a new partnership to launch at Lancaster University, the recovery of pathway operations in the US looks patchy and there is the spectre of more stringent visa controls in the UK ahead of 2024 recruitment.

In the US, the recent addition of a recruitment only deal with Montclair State University makes little headway in the struggle to recover and compete after several years of joint-venture closures and the acceleration of direct recruitment partnerships by main competitor Shorelight.  In the UK, the partnership with Lancaster University brings a high tariff institution to the party but Study Group didn’t seem able to keep Lancaster happy so the pressure to perform is certain to be on. There does not seem to be any news of further progress in Australia. 

INTO must also be waiting with bated breath on the outcome of the Manchester Metropolitan University International Study Centre tender.  There is rarely a dull moment, which may be why they have been a bit too busy to file their Confirmation Statement to Companies House.  Or it could be that there is even bigger news to come.

NOTES

  1. Truth and Wisdom is the motto of the University of South Florida
  2. Final Order: 07/24/2023 02:59:36 PM Electronically Filed
  3. Filing # 167652717 E-Filed 02/27/2023 07:53:06 PM (point 137 and others)
  4. Filing # 175778804 E-Filed 06/21/2023 09:45:06 AM
  5. Filing # 178214351 E-Filed 07/25/2023 05:09:59 PM
  6. Filing # 179194479 E-Filed 08/08/2023 03:23:11 PM
  7. A small homage to Malcolm Bradbury, author of The History Man (1975), one of the most evocative novels about university campus life of the era, who became Professor of American Studies at the University of East Anglia in 1970 and launched the MA in Creative Writing course.  The course has been attended by several eminent authors including Kazuo Ishiguro who won the Booker Prize in 1989 for his book Remains of the Day and went on to be awarded the 2017 Nobel Prize for Literature.  My best wishes to all colleagues and friends still working hard to make UEA a success again.
  8. “Patet omnibus veritas” is the Latin version of Lancaster University’s motto.  It translates to Truth Lies Open to All.
  9. The background to the court case between INTO University Partnerships and the University of South Florida has been outline in several previous blogs. As before the terms INTO and University of South Florida are used as short forms for the range of corporate plaintiffs and defendants. Full details and all public documents reference in this blog can be found through https://hover.hillsclerk.com/html/case/caseSearch.html the Hillsborough County Clerk of Courts search facility. Insert 22 for the year, CA-Circuit Civil for the Court type and 006001 for the case number.

Universities Shouldn’t Cry Until They’re Hurt

One of the most notable features of the past week has been the higher education sector’s outrage at the Prime Minister using the phrases “crack down” and “rip-off” to talk about university courses the Government believes do not offer value for money to taxpayers or students.  They should take the advice given by one of my older and wiser relatives who counsels “don’t cry until you’re hurt”, because this announcement looks a classic case of political sloganeering rather than direct action.  

There is plenty more of this to come as election season looms and every piece of self-righteous university outrage will play out against a backdrop where 30% of the public are “broadly uninterested” in universities and 11% do not view them in a “positive light”. Levels of confidence may not have fallen as low as in the US, where Gallup polls suggest they are in near terminal decline, but it is not always easy to find supporters. For those suggesting it’s not fair that higher education is besmirched for political gain it is worth repeating a dictum from a lecturer in negotiation skills – fairness is a concept of and for children.

Just wait for the howls of protest if/when a further surge in dependent relative visas emerges after the Autumn 2023 intake and a Government in full-campaigning mode (or jostling for post-election leadership challenges) responds.  The sector will, again, be easily positioned as self-seeking and irresponsible in the context of election messages about controlling borders and reducing immigration.  There seems little reason to believe that the Labour party will throw itself in the way of such arguments.    

Bleeding hearts1 but…

Vice-Chancellors are not above their own tough talk with, just this week, the incoming UEA Vice-Chancellor David Maguire quoted as talking about “Darwinian dimension” and “survival of the fittest” in the context of cutbacks at the university.  The vice-chancellor of Oxford, Louise Richardson, talked of a “mendacious media” and “tawdry politicians” when salaries of vice-chancellors were challenged.  It is relatively rare to find VC’s using anything but code and anodyne responses when speaking publicly but those who have worked closely with them know that in private many are more than willing to make strident comments about colleagues, academics, and any organization that disagrees with them.

Hypocrisy is rarely a good look so it is probably time for the sector to decide whether it is going to engage assertively and openly in the cut and thrust of public discourse, suffer in silence or actually do something positive.  If it’s the former, there is a need to get their messaging more focused and populist if they are to have any chance of succeeding.  Mendacious and tawdry are probably not quite right for  discussions at the school gate, on the campaign doorstep or down the pub.

Crying Wolf2 but…

The truth is that the Government’s has had limited success in seeing any of its higher education ideas through and the sector has won at least one major victory in the past few years.  In 2017, ApplyBoard’s ubiquitous Jo Johnson, when UK Minister for Universities and Science, gave a speech to UUK focusing on “accountability and value for money”, “grade inflation”, “vice chancellor pay” and “accelerated degrees”.  Perhaps his abiding popularity with the sector is that everyone is still talking about the first three (with at least one measure arguably much worse) and by 2021 the Complete University Guide could only list eleven universities offering the fourth.

Another good example, this time involving the Office for Students who will be charged with the “crack down”, comes from Gavin Williamson’s time as Secretary of State for Education.  In 2019 he wrote to the OfS asking what steps they could take to ensure “..international students receive the employability skills they need and are supported into employment, whether in their home country or the UK.”  The further thread in the letter was that it was “…critical to ensure the OfS makes public transparent data on the outcomes achieved by international students…such as it does for domestic students.”

This was so ineffective that by early 2022 and even in the face of criticism from the sector HESA, who were charged with getting relevant outcomes data, had decided to stop telephoning students outside the EU to discover international student employment or any other status.  The Head of Data, Foresight and Analysis at the OfS indicated that the OfS was content because “the current cost of this is not proportionate to our current uses of the data” and confirmed that the target response rate had been cut to 20%, compared to 25% previously.   The aforementioned Jo Johnson was reported as being “amazed” and quoted as saying  “Vice-chancellors should provide resources, this is an £18 billion [US$24.5 billion] to £20 billion [US$27 billion] annual revenue business we are talking about.”  The VCs did not respond.

As we are reminded by Aesop’s Fables it is just possible that the wolf will eventually eat the sheep but higher education should be careful about becoming a Cassandra that never have its prophecies believed.

The Truth Doesn’t Hurt…

B. C. Forbes is credited with completing the phrase, “…unless it ought to.”  To an extent the higher education sector seems to have got caught in a doom loop where it sees a problem (even if only in public perception), ignores it or tries to talk it down, then gets caught on the back-foot and is pained when savvy politicians raise it in robust terms.  It is worth considering whether public opinion (for which one might read taxpayer) is ever so totally wrong, or elected representatives so dim, that the sector can totally ignore them or claim there is no foundation for concern.

There is some acceptance of poor quality courses by the sector, as in the UUK President’s recent statement that there are a “…very small proportion of instances where quality needs to be improved.”  It is, perhaps, more telling that the UUK Chief Executive’s statement the following day did not even allow that minor acceptance and preferred to shield the sector behind the OfS as its regulator. A different approach might be – what is the sector doing to ensure students are not mislead about potential outcomes, how are they calling out any examples of quality shortfalls, or, just maybe, standing firm and offering evidence that no examples exist?    

If the sector is persuaded that the OfS is the answer to its problems it would do well to listen more closely to what that body has to say.  Just eighteen months ago the OfS published a consultation on minimum acceptable outcomes for students and CEO Nicola Dandridge said, “They are..designed to target those poor quality courses and outcomes which are letting students down and don’t reflect students’ ambition and effort.”

It seems a straightforward expression of the view that such courses exist and so the current Government position should come as no surprise.  Given the Williamson example above, politicians may be equally concerned about the ability of the OfS to affect change and have chosen to ratchet up the pressure on a populist issue.  The sector is responding as if it has just been caught of guard by a surprise uppercut when the blow was telegraphed a long time ago.

NOTES

  1. Anticipating possible outrage at the use of this term I note that I am aware of its history. I use it here as a common turn of phrase and have no political agenda.
  2. In the original Aesop’s fable only the sheep were eaten by the wolf.  It is only in later English-language version that the shepherd boy is also consumed.

Image by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay

FROM FUTILITY TO UTILITY

Collins Dictionary tells us that, “If you say that something is futile, you mean there is no point in doing it, usually because it has no chance of succeeding.”  It is difficult to think of a better description of a student scanning the Times Higher Education or QS World Rankings or any of the multiplicity of other rankings that have proliferated from those organizations.  They don’t really tell students anything useful about whether the institution is right for them as an individual or whether it will allow them to fulfil their life and career ambitions.

All the evidence suggests that the primary motivator for going to higher education is to enhance job prospects. Chegg’s survey across 21 countries, INTO’s research with agents and Gallup surveys are among indicators that for both home and international students a degree is largely a means to an end. That is not to say that people don’t want to study something they enjoy – just that the degree is the aim.

Most existing rankings are, however, just an attempt to monetize industry data for commercial ends and the sector collaborates, possibly because it’s the way things have always been done.  The rankings, as someone said, “Xerox privilege” by reaffirming existing hierarchies and usually allow institutions to manipulate their data, sometimes beyond the point of criminality.  For the institutions they are vanity projects which lead to dubious internal resource allocation, avoid hard questions about graduate employability and distort the decision making of Governments, funders and students.

Utility, on the other hand, is “the quality or property of being useful” and we may be beginning to see the glimmer of some media developing data to be genuinely useful to students.  It is a timely and smart move because we are nearly at the point where AI will give students the opportunity to have near total, instant and absolutely personalized university search capability at their fingertips.  That should send a shudder through ranking organizations that are wedded to a business model and presentation based on early 2000s thinking.

Money magazine’s Best Colleges 2023 may point the way.  It still has a vapid “star” system to allow colleges to be ranked but the database begins to say some useful, student oriented, things about Acceptance Rate, tuition fee (both headline price but more importantly average actual price) and graduation rate.  Imagine if that database approach married itself, in the US, to the work of a company like College Viability, LLC which gives an insight into reasons which a college “…may not be financially viable for the time required to earn a degree from that college.”  Then, add to the mix comprehensive information on the graduate outcomes and career payback from specific degrees – the Princeton Review Best Value Colleges gives a flavour but still ends up as a ranking with limited coverage.

In the UK, the growth of private universities and the significant difference in tuition fees at graduate level between public universities makes the approach equally appropriate.  Such a database would begin to answer the most pressing of student needs – will I get in and with what grades, am I likely to graduate, and what are my career and earning prospects thereafter?  There could be plenty of further nuance added, including grades required, accommodation, measures of student experience and so on.

All of this could be done without the need for a grading system.  The problem with rankings is that the company doing the ranking sets an arbitrary test which institutions do their best to pass with a high grade.  This entirely excludes the student from having any input into the criteria but the results are then presented as an aspirational or emotional nirvana for them to consider.

A smart organization would be ensuring that their data collection is driven by the real world needs and concerns of students. It’s time to remove the worthies who make up the Advisory Groups and Panels for the major ranking organizations and find ways of engaging directly with potential students. The outcome would be relevant, dynamic and have utility for millions around the globe.

It would also be a driver for universities to engage more effectively with the issue of graduate employment both through on-campus services and establishing strong data on careers and jobs. Colleagues including Louise Nicol of Asia Careers Group and Shane Dillon of CTurtle have been demonstrating for years that smart use of technology even makes it possible to leave antiquated, email driven surveys of graduates behind in collecting the data. The answers might even begin to convince Governments around the world that universities are engaging effectively and adding value to economic growth and sustainability.

McKinsey and many others have written about personalization of the customer experience in retail with much of the impetus being given by technology.  The insurance world has seen the rise and rise of aggregators and there is talk of the “personalized insurance engine” that gives a fully automated customer journey.  Potential students are hungry for better decision making option and education needs to catch up fast with the opportunities that exist.

Image by Steve Buissinne from Pixabay

Election O’Clock Tick, Tock

For visa policy, the year ahead will be shaped by a Tory party that is a bit like end of season Tottenham Hotspur – out of Europe, on their third manager in a year and worried about what life looks like without their star striker.  Sunak could face and lose three by-elections before the party conference so going route one with radical action on visas could become an attractive diversion.  The party may even, just like Spurs, chose to appoint a fourth manager in an attempt to be in contention in 2025.

UK Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, having been thwarted by the Cabinet on more far-reaching student visa reform last time round, could start her speeches with the words, “I shall fight on. I fight to win.”  Conviction politics and evoking the spirit of Margaret Thatcher have always gone down well with most parts of the Conservative party and if she has aspirations for the top job it’s not a bad ploy.  With the clock ticking down to a General Election just 20 months she has every chance of being centre stage.

Some universities have made quite extraordinary increases in international student numbers in recent years and should carefully weigh the consequences of their choices this Autumn.  One plausible scenario is that institutions will be suckered into maximizing recruitment from affected countries in September ahead of the clampdown on dependent visas.  The resulting visa figures would be more than enough for the Home Office and worried Tories to bay about irresponsible recruitment and seek a further round of constraints. 

Pitched against populist right wing politicians fighting for re-election and a public that is largely disengaged from higher education the sector becomes increasingly vulnerable.  However cynical or wrong-headed, an MP can claim the authority of having been publicly elected to represent the views of constituents which is more than any vice-chancellor can say.  They will be listening to people like Eric Kaufmann who spoke at the first National Conservatism conference and likes to remind Tories of the view there is no election victory in increasing immigration.

More Than This or Hold the Line?

Despite all the happy talk and positioning by the higher education sector, MP’s may believe that there is little evidence of public support, let alone a mandate, for significantly more international students. 

Even the sector’s own research commissioned by UniversitiesUK from Public First suggests that the public does not support a rise in international students.  The answer to question 15c, which has been largely misrepresented by the sector as indicating the public favours growth in numbers, shows that 46% would accept the same number and 21% want fewer.  It seems reasonable to argue that this means that 67% of the public do not support a continuation of the rise in international students that we have seen in the past few years.

YouGov tell us that concern over migration has been climbing for a year – from 53% up to 57% say that immigration has been too high for the last ten years and 17% say it’s about right which indicates 74% want immigration the same or lower.  A politician attuned to the data and public opinion will be questioning unfettered growth in international student numbers.  This is particularly so when the surge in growth is driven by countries where the biggest influence on a study abroad decision is “Immigration policies of destination countries” above even job opportunities and quality of higher education.

Money For Nothing

The sector’s fightback is summarized by ApplyBoard UK Advisory Group member (and director of HEPI) Nicholas Hillman who is reported as saying, “If people want to oppose the presence of international students, fine, but they should only do that if they know the benefits they bring and do so with their eyes wide open.”

The glossy launches and expensive research making that economic case are presumably an attempt to open those eyes. But when respondents were told by Public First that the sector contributed nearly £28bn to the UK economy a majority (57%) still said they wanted the same number or fewer international students. One suspects that the obsession with making the economic case, at a point when some headlines reflect how much universities are raking in, is aligned with self-interest and possibly even morally shabby.  

Lord Bilimoria, the co-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for International Students, suggests there should be an aim of 1 million international students in the UK by 2030. ApplyBoard’s Jo Johnson considered, with unusual circumspection, 900,000 or more as appropriate.   Neither seemed to engage with the polling evidence that the majority of the public do not support such growth.

Where Is The Love?

While the sector’s tendency to pitch a case based on the economic value of universities seems reasonable it doesn’t cut to the heart of people’s suspicions that are partly driven by the drip, drip of years of stories about fat cat vice chancellors, dissatisfied students, Mickey Mouse degrees and grade inflation.  Unfortunately, the sector, when challenged, is Wildean in suggesting it has nothing to declare but its genius when a little more humility might go a long way.  It is difficult for the public to trust a sector that doesn’t accept its fallibility.

There are other deep-seated problems for universities in the recent Public Attitudes to Higher Education 2022 research by UPP Foundation/HEPI. Among the figures, 58% don’t think university prepares people for the real world and 52% think society values a university degree too highly.   27% are sceptical or negative about universities and 30% are broadly uninterested which indicates that more than half those surveyed actively oppose universities or think them irrelevant*.

Another drumbeat is whether universities are turning out students with qualifications that fit them for the workplace let alone justify the level of debt.  The current Prime Minister is on record as saying that he wants to “take a tougher approach to university degrees that saddle students with debt, without improving their earning potential.”  A former Prime Minister’s son says degrees are “irrelevant” and Reed Recruitment says,  “It looks like traditional graduate jobs are going out of fashion.”   

Sha la-la-la-lee

That’s the sound of the higher education sector sticking its fingers in its ears while complaining to an uncaring universe. 

What the public hears from universities is that home students should be charged more, that the loss of EU applicants has been a tragedy and that the sector is a major contributor to Britain’s soft power around the world.  This plays into a population facing the largest hit to living standards since records began in 1956,  taxpayers underwriting student loans to a record tune of £205bn, and no obvious evidence that soft power is helping secure trade deals.  Sceptics might even suggest that if UK higher education is so highly regarded then EU students would, whatever the price, always choose Ipswich over Paris and Canterbury over Rome.

The sector’s efforts to promulgate its message often looks like a self-interest, or perhaps self-help, group.  Chris Skidmore’s, International Higher Education Commission, is the latest example and doesn’t appear to have anybody without a vested and sometimes commercial interest in recruiting more international students.  Among the grandly titled “founding commissioners” the ubiquitous Jo Johnson from ApplyBoard makes an appearance, along with seven VCs and three CEOs of sector pressure groups, with Oxford International Education Group claiming they support the Commission under the banner of corporate social responsibility(!).

This is, of course, the Chris Skidmore who co-wrote a book, with those paragons of political, economic and personal credibility Kwasi Kwarteng, Priti Patel, Dominic Raab and Liz Truss,  which claimed, “”Once they enter the workplace, the British are among the worst idlers in the world.”  He was Minister with responsibility for universities for five months which was, for the record, longer than Jo Johnson who managed six weeks.  Would it be a great surprise that the public took their protestations with a pinch of salt?

Where there may be some hope is Johnson’s recent acceptance that “…there is a weakening consensus in British politics on the benefits of international study in our system…We need to acknowledge that and understand why it’s become weaker and what the sector needs to do to reinforce support for international study and its contribution to the UK.”  It’s unfortunate that he then chose to talk about “false narratives” because although these do exist it would have been more refreshing to see the sector accept that it is not without fault.  Disparaging public opinion as being driven by fake news is a tired and demeaning stance that should be replaced by open engagement and dialogue.

NOTES

  1. The headline is derived from U2’s first single on Island Records “Eleven O’Clock Tick Tock”.  They played it to start and end their gig supporting The Photos at the Marquee in July 1980 which is when I first saw them😊.
  2. “More Than This” is a 1982 song from Roxy Music.  “Hold the Line” is a 1978 tune from American rock behemoths Toto whose name apparently comes from the Latin phrase for “all encompassing” and not the dog in The Wizard of Oz.
  3. “Money for Nothing” is a 1985 song from Dire Straits that is distinguished with a great riff but also Sting singing backing vocal, “I want my MTV” to the same melody as The Police song “Don’t Stand So Close to Me” (which is why Virgin insisted on getting a percentage).
  4. 1972’s “Where is the Love” by Donny Hathaway and Roberta Flack is sublime and not to be confused with the Black Eyed Peas song of the same name which is just quite good.
  5. “Sha La La La La Lee” is a 1966 number from the Small Faces and a great reminder of what a force the late Steve Marriott was.  He recorded the song when he was 19.

* I am conscious that the UPP/HEPI research had some good news such as “77% agree universities are important to research and innovation; and 57% agree they are important to the UK economy as a whole”. However, it was startling that the “Broadly Uninterested” segment was so large that the authors had to acknowledge its presence but “focus the majority of our exploration of the segments on the other groups”.

Image by Davie Bicker from Pixabay