It’s always a delight when there is a shaft of light that gives an insight into important issues like international student enrollment. George Mason University (GMU) has made available a day by day view of preliminary enrollments1 which offers a near real time picture of what is happening at the university and its pathway partnership with INTO University Partnerships (IUP), INTO Mason. It probably gives a reasonable indicator of how US institutions and their pathways are faring as the pandemic unwinds and follows data points in the early part of 2022 including:
- IEE Spring 2022 Snapshot where 65% of 559 institutions responding reported “an increase in their international student applications for the 2022/23 academic year”
- a Wall Street Journal report showing the number of F-1 visas issued to Chinese students dropped in the first six months of 2022 to 31,055 compared to 64,261 issued in the first six months of 2019
- The Siasat Daily and others report that between January and May 2022 US consulates issued nearly 15,000 “F1 or student visas” to students in India – triple the number issued in 2022
Visa delays are still an issue but things are moving. The question is how much and what are the implications. GMU’s contemporaneous data gives some directions of travel. There is still some time to go before official census data and the data does not provide country by country insights but the transparency is welcome.
Source data for the graphs below is on the GMU Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Planning website. The graphs combines information on preliminary enrollment data for 2022 with year-by-year data from the normal census point in October of previous years.
INTO Mason Pathway Struggles to Recover
Recruitment to INTO Mason has been struggling for several years and had dropped, before the pandemic, by 35% from 371 in 2017 to 241 in 2019. Numbers enrolled halved during the two years impacted by the pandemic. In a year where recovery might be anticipated the enrollments of 117 for Fall 2022 remain below those Fall 2020, less than half of 2019 and even further down on 2018.2
While the GMU data does not allow an analyse of enrollments by country it seems plausible to believe that declines in students from China contributed significantly to performance pre-pandemic and there is little sign of recovery. It also seems likely that any growth in students coming to the US is largely made up of graduates who do not require pathway courses. This would be consistent with previous suggestions that the changing market dynamics are likely to undermine the core pathway business model.
Note: Filter used was Fall enrollments, INTO Mason, US campuses, all students (Preliminary data for 2022 taken at 22 August, 2022 – shown as First day of classes)
Accelerated Growth in Direct Graduate Enrollment at GMU
Direct enrollment to GMU has taken a significantly different course. From 2021 to the preliminary numbers in 2022, graduate enrollment has surged by 46% from 1641 to 2397. While UG enrollment is still below 2019 the graduate growth has boosted overall enrollment of non-resident aliens to a six-year high of 3844.
This suggests that the opportunity to recruit has come in countries, such as India, where the majority of students are seeking a graduate course. GMU presents the overall enrollment data in a way which includes INTO Mason numbers but it is clear from the graph above that the pathway cannot be responsible for the growth in recruitment. There is no indication of the extent, if any, to which IUP’s direct recruitment efforts for GMU have supported this growth.
Note: Filter used was Fall enrollments, ALL GMU US Campuses, non-resident alien. (Preliminary data for 2022 taken at 22 August, 2022 – shown as First day of classes)
Pandemic Escalates Debt Levels at Joint Venture
Each year, in its published annual report, IUP records the level of debt it is owed by its joint ventures. In a single year near peak enrollment the INTO Mason joint venture did not owe anything but since then the level of debt has escalated and the first two years of the pandemic saw a significant growth in indebtedness. A previous blog has shown the growing level of indebtedness of all of IUP’s US joint ventures (including the three that have closed in recent years).
Source: INTO University Partnership Annual Reports
A recent report from an IUP university partner in the UK suggested that the decline in its joint venture with IUP was so significant that there “will be no distribution in respect of 2020/21 nor for the next three years whilst the joint venture recovers”. At INTO Mason the level of indebtedness appears to have grown by £1.5m a year in each of the pandemic years and there is little to suggest that INTO Mason’s enrollments this year will grow above those in 2020. IUP has they have the opportunity to offset any problems in pathway performance with direct recruitment revenue streams but the scale of the challenge seems clear.
No Miraculous Recovery
As noted in a previous blog, the changing international student recruitment picture is likely to fundamentally change the way that pathway operators develop sustainable revenue streams. In the US, Shorelight has acted quickly to develop a direct recruitment partners and has significantly outstripped IUP in this regard. With recovery in the traditional core market of Chinese undergraduates looking sluggish and increasingly unlikely to ever reach the heights of the growth years the strategic challenge is very real for all concerned.
There has been a longer-term malaise around IUP with recent changes at Board level and a developing “boots on the ground” strategy suggesting a shake-up is underway. It comes off the back of a diminishing presence in both the US and UK which may be difficult to recover. The route forward remains fraught with pitfalls and uncertainty.
The direction of travel at GMU reflects the more general emerging picture for the US. Graduate enrollments look strong but as the recent IDP annual report showed interest from China looks relatively weak. As suggested in my recent blogs, the new enrollment battleground is India and with Australia back in the game and hungry it’s going to be an interesting year.
Notes
- The Preliminary Daily Enrollment Reports and Dashboards carry data from 19 April 2022 to 25 August 2022 (as at 25 August). Other Enrollments Reports carry an historical record taken at a Census date in October each year.
- INTO Mason accepts students at a number of intake points in the year but Fall enrollment is generally the largest intake and is the sole point of reference for this blog.